Long Term Viability and Depreciation

[Mappy]

Hi,

I am seriously considering moving from a 3-series BMW to an IS300H. I have had the 3 series for many years, but it has reached the stage now where I am playing whack-a-mole with dashboard lights, and it needs to go. I also don't want another BMW, as the cost of a 2020 three series with less than 40k miles has really crept up, and I have reservations about their reliability.

The IS300H seems to hit the spot regarding reliability, and they look pretty good, too. My issue surrounds the car's long-term viability and depreciation, and I am trying to develop a good purchase strategy. I plan to keep the car for approx 5 years, but most of the cars I see for sale now are around 2018 and 2019, with very few 2020 models. This is compounded further by the slightly ageing tech in the cars. I also see a lot of cars advertised where they either don't state there is a service history, or the service history doesn't seem to be every 10k miles. Is this a worry?

My main question is, in 2029 will a ten to eleven year old IS300H with 100k miles on the clock be a desirable car in the second-hand market? It's a crystal ball type question, but maybe there are some of you on here who have studied the used car markets over the years with opinions.

Cheers

[Boeryeoes]

God knows ... one train of thought is that by that time all new cars must be electric and that could lead to a good market for luxury petrol/hybrid cars. But there are many more scenarios possible were that isn't the case. 
 

My view is you buy a car to use and enjoy now ... so I'm enjoying my 2019 IS300h while being mindful it could be my last petrol powered car.

[IS300FSPORT]

330d Or M340d would be a nice upgrade if I was a BMW fan.

IS300H gets the job done without a fuss for future you can be assured ten years from now the IS will still be rolling where as a hybrid from other manufacturers the Battery pack has probably packed in or ready to be scrapped as it's not worth the cost. Toyota/Lexus hold the crown for  hybrid cars check autotrader for abit of clarity.

Resale wise Lexus in general have a strong resale value so maybe worth slightly more than your average rival but in 10 years petrol engines will still be around diesel will probably get phased out because of emissions although they are the best all rounder for high mileage drivers. Lexus hybrid as long as they are emissions  compliant theyl likely continue to be in demand for areas where the gov sp4nk us.

In the UK German vehicle takes the market, Lexus in the US is popular but not over here unless the market drastically changes (unlikely) observed  people would rather have a tired high mileage 3 series over a well looked after equivalent  Lexus simply because of the badge to look cool infront of their friends. 

[Linas.P]

3 hours ago, Mappy said:

Hi,

I am seriously considering moving from a 3-series BMW to an IS300H. I have had the 3 series for many years, but it has reached the stage now where I am playing whack-a-mole with dashboard lights, and it needs to go. I also don't want another BMW, as the cost of a 2020 three series with less than 40k miles has really crept up, and I have reservations about their reliability.

The IS300H seems to hit the spot regarding reliability, and they look pretty good, too. My issue surrounds the car's long-term viability and depreciation, and I am trying to develop a good purchase strategy. I plan to keep the car for approx 5 years, but most of the cars I see for sale now are around 2018 and 2019, with very few 2020 models. This is compounded further by the slightly ageing tech in the cars. I also see a lot of cars advertised where they either don't state there is a service history, or the service history doesn't seem to be every 10k miles. Is this a worry?

My main question is, in 2029 will a ten to eleven year old IS300H with 100k miles on the clock be a desirable car in the second-hand market? It's a crystal ball type question, but maybe there are some of you on here who have studied the used car markets over the years with opinions.

Cheers

Lexus is generally strong on the side of depreciation, especially older car... If I were to look into IS300h, then the best value for money will be early cars 2013, 2014 etc. You can already get one for ~£8,000-9,000 and they won't lose much of value... in 2029 they likely still be worth £5,000.

The newer and the more expensive is the car, the more it will depreciate. So if you get into 2020 car for £20,000 today, then it is quite likely that by 2029 it will be worth just £1,000 more than 2013 car you would have purchased for £8,000. And your risk is much lower with older car, if it depreciates more realistically you risking maybe £6,000...  it is still going to be worth £2,000 even as scrap. On 2020 car your risk for loss is triple and it has much more space to depreciate.

100k miles is where you SHOULD BUY Lexus, not where you should sell it (there is caveats about 100k specifically), but this is not BMW that doesn't even last 100k miles. To get value in Lexus you need to buy car with 120k on the clock and sell it around 200k miles, not only that higher mile cars tends to be in better condition, because they likely spent more time on motorway. In short what I am saying, coming from BMW you just looking at Lexus wrong way... it is horrible idea to buy "barely run in" Lexus at 30k miles, overpay for it and then depreciate it by adding miles on it. No - you buy Lexus with high miles already, the one that has already depreciated as much as it can and then you just happily run it for another 100k miles with minimal spending. All Lexus with very few expectations can easily run 200-300k with just regular standard maintenance, the life-cycle of them are completely different compared to German cars. German car life ends at 100k, it becomes problematic at 60k... so ideally you get one new on lease, or you get it as second owner at 30k and 3 years old and sell it before it get's to 60k. On Lexus 10 years/100k is factory warranty, only after first 10 years they become good value... if you can, then most perfect option would be to get something like 80-90k miles 2016 car, because you would still get 2 years of warranty out of it, so initial risk is reduced. BUT - don't get low miles and new-ish Lexus, there is no point, you just overpaying a lot.

Now past prices are not indicative of future prices... but I can give you comparable example with IS250 (IS300h predecessor). I bought one 2008 car with 122k miles in 2014 for £4,000, I drove it until 2019 at which point it got into minor accident and got written-off, insurance paid me £3,840 for it because same car in 2019 was still £4,000. Not only that - today, literally 10 years later IS250 is still wroth £4.000. So I reckon if you get one of the cheaper IS300h today for say £10,000, by 2029 they will easily be worth £5,000+ Also they have one neat advantage - they are only £30 (maybe £25) for road tax a year... so people should be quite interested getting them in future, if not for driver excitement, at very least for cheap VED.

Technology is quite old in IS300h, but realistically the solution for that is £500 chinese android unit, it doesn't really matter if you get early or late car, the chinese android will run circles around the sat-nav and infotainment system. Sure... you willing to spend money on 2018+ car you will get LSS+ (dynamic cruise control and some nice driving aids), but when it comes to sell the car that will cost you probably £5,000 in depreciation... so consider if it is really worth it.

As for maintenance - yes, it is important, you want car with regular service... it doesn't need much more, just regular service. But again if you can get one still in warranty, then this becomes partially moot point. It won't ever be as bad as BMW. Not even at 200k miles. So yes - ideally it is nice to have service history, but just keeping it serviced from the point you bought it is also quite sufficient. 

[wharfhouse]

4 hours ago, Mappy said:

Hi,

I am seriously considering moving from a 3-series BMW to an IS300H. I have had the 3 series for many years, but it has reached the stage now where I am playing whack-a-mole with dashboard lights, and it needs to go. I also don't want another BMW, as the cost of a 2020 three series with less than 40k miles has really crept up, and I have reservations about their reliability.

The IS300H seems to hit the spot regarding reliability, and they look pretty good, too. My issue surrounds the car's long-term viability and depreciation, and I am trying to develop a good purchase strategy. I plan to keep the car for approx 5 years, but most of the cars I see for sale now are around 2018 and 2019, with very few 2020 models. This is compounded further by the slightly ageing tech in the cars. I also see a lot of cars advertised where they either don't state there is a service history, or the service history doesn't seem to be every 10k miles. Is this a worry?

My main question is, in 2029 will a ten to eleven year old IS300H with 100k miles on the clock be a desirable car in the second-hand market? It's a crystal ball type question, but maybe there are some of you on here who have studied the used car markets over the years with opinions.

Cheers

Always difficult to predict the future but I can say that I bought an IS 300h in 2016 - it was a two year old (2014 reg) with 40k miles on it. I still have it (so it's nearly 10 years old now) and it's done 152k miles. Regular maintenance by Lexus and nothing serious has gone wrong - only the front wheel bearings at 80k miles and one rear caliper at 150k miles. Nothing else other than maintenence so very cheap motoring. Car still drives like new. I was looking to change it earlier but Lexus stopped selling the IS in the UK (and Europe) late 2019 / early 2020 (and so why there are no IS cars after this on the market). I couldn't find anything else I liked in the Lexus stable so have kept running it. BTW the hybrid Battery can be kept in warranty until the car is 15 years old with unlimited mileage. I came from a string of BMWs (3 and 5 series) and the IS is a different car but I certainly don't regret the decision - as per how long I have kept the car already. It's a great long distance touring car - no matter how long the drive I always arrive feeling refreshed. 

On depreciation, I paid around £17k for the car in 2016 (2 years old and 40k miles) and you can see what cars are worth today - so depreciation has been minimal. Also as Linas says mine is £10 (soon to be £20) VED per year as its pre 2017 - which adds up to quite a bit over the time I've had it compared with a post 2017 car. 

[Notamech]

19 minutes ago, Linas.P said:

Lexus is generally strong on the side of depreciation, especially older car... If I were to look into IS300h, then the best value for money will be early cars 2013, 2014 etc. You can already get one for ~£8,000-9,000 and they won't lose much of value... in 2029 they likely still be worth £5,000.

The newer and the more expensive is the car, the more it will depreciate. So if you get into 2020 car for £20,000 today, then it is quite likely that by 2029 it will be worth just £1,000 more than 2013 car you would have purchased for £8,000. And your risk is much lower with older car, if it depreciates more realistically you risking maybe £6,000...  it is still going to be worth £2,000 even as scrap. On 2020 car your risk for loss is triple and it has much more space to depreciate.

100k miles is where you SHOULD BUY Lexus, not where you should sell it (there is caveats about 100k specifically), but this is not BMW that doesn't even last 100k miles. To get value in Lexus you need to buy car with 120k on the clock and sell it around 200k miles, not only that higher mile cars tends to be in better condition, because they likely spent more time on motorway. In short what I am saying, coming from BMW you just looking at Lexus wrong way... it is horrible idea to buy "barely run in" Lexus at 30k miles, overpay for it and then depreciate it by adding miles on it. No - you buy Lexus with high miles already, the one that has already depreciated as much as it can and then you just happily run it for another 100k miles with minimal spending. All Lexus with very few expectations can easily run 200-300k with just regular standard maintenance, the life-cycle of them are completely different compared to German cars. German car life ends at 100k, it becomes problematic at 60k... so ideally you get one new on lease, or you get it as second owner at 30k and 3 years old and sell it before it get's to 60k. On Lexus 10 years/100k is factory warranty, only after first 10 years they become good value... if you can, then most perfect option would be to get something like 80-90k miles 2016 car, because you would still get 2 years of warranty out of it, so initial risk is reduced. BUT - don't get low miles and new-ish Lexus, there is no point, you just overpaying a lot.

Now past prices are not indicative of future prices... but I can give you comparable example with IS250 (IS300h predecessor). I bought one 2008 car with 122k miles in 2014 for £4,000, I drove it until 2019 at which point it got into minor accident and got written-off, insurance paid me £3,840 for it because same car in 2019 was still £4,000. Not only that - today, literally 10 years later IS250 is still wroth £4.000. So I reckon if you get one of the cheaper IS300h today for say £10,000, by 2029 they will easily be worth £5,000+ Also they have one neat advantage - they are only £30 (maybe £25) for road tax a year... so people should be quite interested getting them in future, if not for driver excitement, at very least for cheap VED.

Technology is quite old in IS300h, but realistically the solution for that is £500 chinese android unit, it doesn't really matter if you get early or late car, the chinese android will run circles around the sat-nav and infotainment system. Sure... you willing to spend money on 2018+ car you will get LSS+ (dynamic cruise control and some nice driving aids), but when it comes to sell the car that will cost you probably £5,000 in depreciation... so consider if it is really worth it.

As for maintenance - yes, it is important, you want car with regular service... it doesn't need much more, just regular service. But again if you can get one still in warranty, then this becomes partially moot point. It won't ever be as bad as BMW. Not even at 200k miles. So yes - ideally it is nice to have service history, but just keeping it serviced from the point you bought it is also quite sufficient. 

Totally agree with this. Get an older 14/15 model at around 80-100k and budget a bit for unforeseen expenses like suspension bushings etc. But you pay less upfront and loose less during the course of ownership. Also pre 2016 the tax is only £10-20 depending on the variant.

Generally highly reliable car and very easy to do DIY work on should you decide to do it. Tech wise other than carplay i dont think the is misses out on much if you get a premier spec. All the new cars coming with beep beep bop bop features are annoying from what i hear best avoided id think.

[Bounce75]

I have owned a 2020 model for the last 3 1/2 years & only covered 11,000 miles. It is a great car & I love all the safety & driving aids. I could have bought older, but wanted the newest I could get, 3 months old with 6 miles on the clock.

Depreciation is not really an issue for me as I intend to keep it for a long time & I will obviously know the history of the car.

They drive well, look good & I am pleased I bought mine.

[Mappy]

Thank you for the different perspectives.

From some very rough calculations, I would guess that the depreciation of a 2014 F Sport over three years is roughly £1100 per year. For a 2019 F Sport with lower miles, it works out at roughly £1500 per year.

So, to own 2019, it costs approx £400-500 a year extra, assuming the cars are kept for three years and my estimations are in any way correct!

[Thackeray]

On 10/2/2024 at 2:58 PM, Mappy said:

The IS300H seems to hit the spot regarding reliability

I recently noticed, while checking specifications in the 2015 brochure, that they said the IS300h is "built on the same line as the LS flagship saloon..." I hadn't seen this before.  In practice, since there would have been far more IS models than LS, another perspective is that the LS was built on the IS line.

This probably meant there was a lot of attention to quality on this line and this will have gone some way to expalning why the IS has been so reliable. Mine has just turned 10 years and after eight years of ownership, literally nothing has gone wrong. It's been serviced on time by Lexus, tyres and 12v Battery have been replaced but no actual faults or failures.

So if your question is whether one of these cars will last until 2029 and still retain its value, the experience of LS owners on this website seems to be that they last forever. Let's hope the same is true of the IS.