It will be interesting to see...

[TomLC500h]

On 6/17/2024 at 8:39 AM, BrettMRC said:

Not driving a wonderful car to preserve it's value is a bit like not ****ing your girlfriend out of respect for her next boyfriend! 🤪

Admittedly I don't get out in my toys as much as I would like, but that's not out of regard for resale value - more a factor of work and the weather.

I don't think LC500 values will plummet in the same way Soarers and LS400's did in the 90s/early 00s, but equally I'm not sure they will be an "investment" car either.  They are low-ish volume, but not in the same league as the LFA.  The low sales number reflect that for many people Lexus still suffers from badge snobbery rooted in post WW2 thinking, this means the potential audience to buy them in the future will be lower.   (I blame the demise of Athena and other similar shops where you could go in and buy a big Ferrari/Porsche/Lamborghini poster to put on your wall aged 11 and then go hunting once you had the money 30 years later!) 

I agree, just look at the SC 430 and how those values are. 

[Dingle Dell]

I heard a rumour that it's only the yellow LC's that will appreciate in value  😉  

[Linas.P]

I see 2 possibilities:

1. they will continue to fall slowly until they reach certain point and then the price will stabilise ~high 20s. Making it sort of IS-F>RC-F>GS-F>LC500

Supply of new cars has no relevance in case of LC500s, nobody bought the new for a while now. It was a trickle, couple of cars a year at best. Majority of LC500s were sold in first few years and that is true for most of such cars.

2. they will drop suddenly and then stabilise at ~high 20s.

The reason for that - majority of used LC500s were always sold by Lexus dealers, it seems like Lexus paid special attention and tried to keep most of the cars in the network to sort of "control depreciation" and have monopoly on used LC500 market (I have no evidence but it seemed like Lexus was scooping them all and then fixing the price at high 40s and early 50s for a while). Now that cars are EOL they likely let the cars be traded by independent dealers at whatever market is willing to pay and that should reduce their value quite significantly. 

I personally don't see LC500 as collectors car, they actually sold quite a few of them and there is plenty of competition in that price point. Also they are not very practical... the fact that can be overlooked by person who buys brand new toy into the collection of multiple cars for £100k, but not the general public that needs to pay £45k for used car, which is potentially single car in household... suddenly practicality becomes a concern. That is why there is no issue selling 10 years old SUV, but selling used coupe which has tiny hatch for a boot barely fitting golf bag is an issue.

Or... that is wishful thinking as I would gladly grab one for under £20k whenever that comes to the market. 

[Malc1]

46 minutes ago, Dingle Dell said:

I heard a rumour that it's only the yellow LC's that will appreciate in value  😉  

Being colour blind might help 😂

Malc 

[Flytvr]

On 7/5/2024 at 9:24 PM, Linas.P said:

I see 2 possibilities:

1. they will continue to fall slowly until they reach certain point and then the price will stabilise ~high 20s. Making it sort of IS-F>RC-F>GS-F>LC500

Supply of new cars has no relevance in case of LC500s, nobody bought the new for a while now. It was a trickle, couple of cars a year at best. Majority of LC500s were sold in first few years and that is true for most of such cars.

2. they will drop suddenly and then stabilise at ~high 20s.

The reason for that - majority of used LC500s were always sold by Lexus dealers, it seems like Lexus paid special attention and tried to keep most of the cars in the network to sort of "control depreciation" and have monopoly on used LC500 market (I have no evidence but it seemed like Lexus was scooping them all and then fixing the price at high 40s and early 50s for a while). Now that cars are EOL they likely let the cars be traded by independent dealers at whatever market is willing to pay and that should reduce their value quite significantly. 

I personally don't see LC500 as collectors car, they actually sold quite a few of them and there is plenty of competition in that price point. Also they are not very practical... the fact that can be overlooked by person who buys brand new toy into the collection of multiple cars for £100k, but not the general public that needs to pay £45k for used car, which is potentially single car in household... suddenly practicality becomes a concern. That is why there is no issue selling 10 years old SUV, but selling used coupe which has tiny hatch for a boot barely fitting golf bag is an issue.

Or... that is wishful thinking as I would gladly grab one for under £20k whenever that comes to the market. 

It’s all crystal ball stuff, but I don’t think practicality will have any impact. People looking at the LC have never worried about practicality. Anyway, it really isn’t that bad, on a short trip I even got a 6ft mate in the back.

If you compare the LC to other cars in its class, I think depreciation is favourable e.g. BMW 8 series. Even die hard German fans seem to favour the LC over the likes of the 8.

Finally, unlike Lexus F cars, the LC is recognised by the wider public as being a very sexy car. Drive an ISF,RCF or GSF down the road and few people (other than use lot) would ever notice. An LC on the other hand really does turn heads. As an example, when a Lamborghini driver flags you down to talk, you know the car is special!

So, like I said, crystal ball, but I wouldn’t write them off.

[Linas.P]

2 hours ago, Flytvr said:

It’s all crystal ball stuff, but I don’t think practicality will have any impact. People looking at the LC have never worried about practicality. Anyway, it really isn’t that bad, on a short trip I even got a 6ft mate in the back.

If you compare the LC to other cars in its class, I think depreciation is favourable e.g. BMW 8 series. Even die hard German fans seem to favour the LC over the likes of the 8.

Finally, unlike Lexus F cars, the LC is recognised by the wider public as being a very sexy car. Drive an ISF,RCF or GSF down the road and few people (other than use lot) would ever notice. An LC on the other hand really does turn heads. As an example, when a Lamborghini driver flags you down to talk, you know the car is special!

So, like I said, crystal ball, but I wouldn’t write them off.

That is kind of what I said - practicality is not an issue... but only for normal LC buyer that has £100k to spare. It is however an issue for wider appeal for used cars. Any coupe it hard to sell nowdays... LC is just less practical and more expensive.

Also in comparison practicality of LC it is very poor - BMW 8 has folding rear seats and massive boot, you can put 2 whole bicycles there. MB S-Coupe is also massive, comfortably sits full grown adults in the back and even thought rear seats doesn't fold the boot is humongous. LC boot size is just part of an issue, the key problem it is how it opens and it is literally just a hatch. Folding seats - forget it. Also in terms of rear seat practicality - there is more legroom than in RC, but headroom is actually worse or comparably bad. However, I would say rear seats are kind of irrelevant for coupe buyers, but boot is relevant for any car. I always argued that LC should have been hatchback (like Celica, or Jaguar XK... or LFA) and have folding seats. in such case you get entire real glass as your opening. Boot size in general maters for GT car... you want to go to Eurotrip driving 2000 miles with your belongings... you need more than bag of golf clubs there.

I agree that LCis special car, but if Lamborghini driver driver flagging you is a metric then you can get the same in BMW i8. Key issue with BMW 8-series is that... first of all it is not 8-series, it is 6-series and secondly that it is basically 4-series in larger body and bigger engine... the interior quality is real low point, it does not feel special at all. I doubt person in blind test would be able to tell the difference sitting in 420d and M650. What is the issue with S-Coupe... to be honest I don't know, they just seem to depreciate like a sinking anker, but otherwise I can't really fault them from perspective of luxury GT car. 

Now sure - I have always said that LC is perfect second car... in garage with RX it sits extremely well. But people who have double garages and can own two cars don't buy depreciated 8 years old coupes... from Lexus. I think used car market is where LC is not that competitive. 

Again - I like the car a lot, but it is not £45k car. I very nearly got to buy one just before covid started and they already reached £40k in January 2020... and that was for 2 year old cars with under 10,000 miles. I know times have changed, but I feel now that Lexus not going to artificially keep them in the network, the price will catch-up, the market itself is catching-up anyway. 

So my prediction - is that Lexus stopping sales of new LCs will DEFINATELLY not going to increase their value. On that point I am confident. How much the value will drop, where it stops, when it starts rising again and where it stabilises - sure that is crystal ball type of prediction.

[Dingle Dell]

I don't think the LC is any less practical than the other cars most people will have on their short-list if they are considering one. I was also looking at the Vantage, R8, AMG GT, etc. I can fit quite a bit in mine with careful packing.

Prices will slowly fall to a level, sit there a while then very slowly appreciate for nice examples, a bit like with the last generation Vantage. Probably less mileage sensitive than the usual exotica as well, so no reason not to put the miles on.

[Linas.P]

I think Lexus was great car to buy new, from a perspective of somebody buying rare car that stands out... and considering the quality etc. LC500 was excellent and for that clientele the practicality is either irrelevant or sufficient. Basically, it was well placed product made in to appeal to particular buyer, I get that. 

However, I think LC500 as depreciating, 8 years old used car is much weaker proposition for the people in the market of such cars. The values such buyers have (I am very aware that I am speaking about myself here) are different from the ones that first owners had. So what was not a weakness, or maybe even was a strength when it was new car, now could become weakness.

This trend is very obvious in Limousines (LS, S-Class, 7-Series, Maybach etc.), they are made with rich person in mind, who does not drive by themselves, but have the driver and who is focused on rear seat comfort and features. They buy the car for £200k, and replace it 5 years later, but as used 5 years old cars Limousines are least desirable and depreciate massively. Because their intended target market no longer wants them, they don't buy used cars, they just going to buy another one for £200k... and the people who may want them are really not willing to pay that much. Hence it is quite common to see loaded 5 years old S-Class that costed £160k new for as low as £25k, nobody needs them so they fall to the price that is acceptable to the market. It is a little bit extreme example (not as extreme as what will happen with Lexus LM, that I ensure you will be tragicomedy, when they hit used market!), but illustrates the market forces and how prices are determined by the demand.

Obviously, LC is not going to depreciate as badly as Limousine, as there is broader interest in car, but there will be some price adjustment. Also I think it is wrong to compare LC to Aston Martins, even AMG GT... Lexus does not have same "brand" to really keep values as well, I think the trend will be more similar to Audi R8 (which depreciated horribly).

I am not saying it is bad news, but really I think that is good news for car enthusiasts. But obviously it is not great if you are the owner. 

Also - I think LC and LC-convertible will have different trend as they are on different lifecycle. So I am talking only about coupes here. 

[weaselly_words]

I'm not much of a statistician but since I've been keeping track of LC (and other cars) prices for the last month and a half I can give something of a quantitative view on the current state of the market. For the 1468 adverts I have tracked the following depreciation rates can be observed:

The way to interpret the graph is: the steeper the line, the faster the depreciation. So things aren't looking great for the LC long term at the moment (although currently better than the ES).

[Malc1]

But you haven’t tracked the Value Appreciation of some older models …….. e.g. the Ls400s ……. 
 

I'm sure the curve switches upwards at about 20 years young …….. seeing the prices now of some of these collectibles maybe 🤔

Do you anticipate a reversal of values for the LCs after say 20 years of age ? …… and maybe a good buy now for a long term “ hold “ 

Malc 

[Linas.P]

2 hours ago, weaselly_words said:

The way to interpret the graph is: the steeper the line, the faster the depreciation. So things aren't looking great for the LC long term at the moment (although currently better than the ES).

Great info!

But I would go further... General market condition - post pandemic price boom is ending, now all the cars (not only Lexus) have to catch-up with their depreciation curve.

ES depreciates most... that makes sense - it isn't even a Lexus! As HP for fleet buy it was alright... used prices just reflects on how compare to real Lexus.

Expensive coupes of any make are sure way to burn some money, so nothing new here. Lexus did solid and kept them in the network for as long as they could to soften the blow, but it has to end at some point. 

1 hour ago, Malc1 said:

But you haven’t tracked the Value Appreciation of some older models …….. e.g. the Ls400s ……. 

I'm sure the curve switches upwards at about 20 years young …….. seeing the prices now of some of these collectibles maybe 🤔

Do you anticipate a reversal of values for the LCs after say 20 years of age ? …… and maybe a good buy now for a long term “ hold “ 

If you look at the graph again - he did.. and they are appreciating... that is expected.

However, second inference is incorrect. You see - you could have bought 10 years old LS400 in 1999 for probably £3000... and since then the price has gone-up, or mostly stayed flat and now at 20 years old the prices are climbing for surviving examples.

LC despite being 8 years old is still at astronomical £40,000... their prices will start rising again after 20 years, that is certain, but they still have long way to go down, before you can buy one "to hold for appreciation". I honestly doubt that they will EVER going to be more expensive than they are now... maybe 30 years in future (if we still have petrol) some perfect example somehow going to reach £40,000 again (adjusted for inflation), but in near future, next 3-5 years, I am expecting the prices to continue to drop. 

[Malc1]

We will all enjoy the benefit of hindsight in 30 years time 😂🤣

Malc 

[Boomer54]

16 minutes ago, Malc1 said:

We will all enjoy the benefit of hindsight in 30 years time 😂🤣

Malc 

"We will all", ever the optimist.

[Flytvr]

Trouble is with all these predictions, they tend to follow the same pattern, whereby those that don’t have said car always predict the worst. Arguably, those that do have said car like to be optimistic.

Finally, I believe someone likened the LC to the SC. Not sure that’s wise. The SC was hated by nearly everybody.

[GMB]

2 hours ago, Malc1 said:

But you haven’t tracked the Value Appreciation of some older models

That reminds me of the classic Jewish joke about the grandma at the beach with young grandson who was making a sandcastle. Suddenly a massive wave crashed onto the shore and washed the child out to sea.  The Grandma dropped to her knees and looked up to the sky praying to God " Help me Lord, bring him back! I'll do anything if you just answer my prayer. I'll go to the synagogue every day and pray and give offerings. I'll always help the poor ...... Anything!.

Next moment a great wave crashed onto the beach carrying the child and dumped him right back where he was before.

The old lady looked up to heaven and said in a loud voice " But, he had a hat! "

[Boomer54]

44 minutes ago, Linas.P said:

Great info!

But I would go further... General market condition - post pandemic price boom is ending, now all the cars (not only Lexus) have to catch-up with their depreciation curve.

ES depreciates most... that makes sense - it isn't even a Lexus! As HP for fleet buy it was alright... used prices just reflects on how compare to real Lexus.

Expensive coupes of any make are sure way to burn some money, so nothing new here. Lexus did solid and kept them in the network for as long as they could to soften the blow, but it has to end at some point. 

If you look at the graph again - he did.. and they are appreciating... that is expected.

However, second inference is incorrect. You see - you could have bought 10 years old LS400 in 1999 for probably £3000... and since then the price has gone-up, or mostly stayed flat and now at 20 years old the prices are climbing for surviving examples.

LC despite being 8 years old is still at astronomical £40,000... their prices will start rising again after 20 years, that is certain, but they still have long way to go down, before you can buy one "to hold for appreciation". I honestly doubt that they will EVER going to be more expensive than they are now... maybe 30 years in future (if we still have petrol) some perfect example somehow going to reach £40,000 again (adjusted for inflation), but in near future, next 3-5 years, I am expecting the prices to continue to drop. 

Using the term "normalised" do you mean adjusted for inflation?

[Linas.P]

9 minutes ago, Flytvr said:

Not sure that’s wise. The SC was hated by nearly everybody.

Not by the owners thought.

I agree with your statement - owners tend to be optimistic, everyone else pessimistic... The only thing - I am failing to find examples where the optimist had it? 

LFA maybe? but apart of that luxury coupes (unlike thoroughbred sports car) tend to depreciate. LFA was exception, because it was supercar.

5 minutes ago, Boomer54 said:

Using the term "normalised" do you mean adjusted for inflation?

? 

I said adjusted for inflation... do you mean I could have used "normalised" instead... I am confused!

 

[Malc1]

3 minutes ago, Flytvr said:

Trouble is with all these predictions, they tend to follow the same pattern, whereby those that don’t have said car always predict the worst. Arguably, those that do have said car like to be optimistic.

Finally, I believe someone likened the LC to the SC. Not sure that’s wise. The SC was hated by nearly everybody.

One’s lifetime needs to be full of optimism and happiness whichever car one has 

Making the very best of what one has is always best   LC. SC or nay ………. just make sure you’re buying the car you really really want and then ENJOYING it at all times 

Malc 

[Linas.P]

2 minutes ago, Malc1 said:

One’s lifetime needs to be full of optimism and happiness whichever car one has 

Making the very best of what one has is always best   LC. SC or nay ………. just make sure you’re buying the car you really really want and then ENJOYING it at all times 

Malc 

If finances allows then yes!

There are also people who would like to have particular car, maybe can even afford one for some time, but can't afford to lose £10,000 over a year in depreciation alone. 

[GMB]

3 minutes ago, Linas.P said:

just make sure you’re buying the car you really really want and then ENJOYING it at all times 

But I really really want a Dodge charger R/T ( even though they are not that quick by today's standards, but that sound..... )

Problem is; I should have bought one 20 yrs ago when they were £12K and not  £ 100K like today.  Anyway I can't afford one so I have a nasty evil rotten old 200t which Linas doesn't like.

[Linas.P]

5 minutes ago, GMB said:

But I really really want a Dodge charger R/T ( even though they are not that quick by today's standards, but that sound..... )

Problem is; I should have bought one 20 yrs ago when they were £12K and not  £ 100K like today.  Anyway I can't afford one so I have a nasty evil rotten old 200t which Linas doesn't like.

Classic cars work differently, we are 60 years away from the time this discussion could be applicable to LC...

You also have IS-F... which I should have bought in ~2016 when they were selling for £10k still warranted... so stop complaining!

[Malc1]

And I bought my second Ls400 last August coz my Bentley S3 1965 would have been a silly car to own and try  to keep on the road …….. just to scratch that itch 😅😂🤣

By the way, just found out there’s a Rolls Royce and Bentley “ classic show” at Great Comp Place at Platt near Sevenoaks this Sunday 14th ……. I’ll be taking my debit card just in case 🤩

Malc 

[GMB]

5 minutes ago, Linas.P said:

You also have IS-F... which I should have bought in ~2016 when they were selling for £10k still warranted... so stop complaining!

But complaining is a British artform. Are you really sure you could ever get an ISF for £10K?  But maybe you are right about being the lucky owner of an ISF, if I believe the second hand price indicators and auto insurance valuations the ISF has gone up in value by £2K per year since I bought it. That is irrelevant anyway as it will not be sold.

However it is still raining and I want to complain about it.

[GMB]

 

Nice video  he gives it some stick at 3.3 minutes

 

[Linas.P]

7 minutes ago, GMB said:

But complaining is a British artform. Are you really sure you could ever get an ISF for £10K?  But maybe you are right about being the lucky owner of an ISF, if I believe the second hand price indicators and auto insurance valuations the ISF has gone up in value by £2K per year since I bought it. That is irrelevant anyway as it will not be sold.

However it is still raining and I want to complain about it.

Weather is shaite... it has to be that way, it is UK... otherwise we would have to stop complaining about it!

Yes - I am positive... must be said, those where examples on the lower end of the market. One sold for £8,800 with ugly Vland light, cheap stick on spoiler and some ugly wheels, generally tacky, 152k miles, but I think it was 2011 model and also had tinted headlight which is always a sign that the owner is an idiot and likes not to see anything at night.. and not to be seen during the day. The other one was perfect example, 2010, with 98k miles and sold for exactly £10,000, interestingly had a trailer hitch... I think I seen same car years later with 140k miles for £16,000. There were few more in between at the time. So certainly ~4-6 IS-F had sold at under £10,000. And it was just a brief 6 month period, they were ~£12-14k mark for a year, then quite a few accumulated on the market (at one point there was over 20 for sale), basically it was the time when IS-F bottomed out and then it went back-up to £12-14k.