EV and the USA

[Boomer54]

If you get a chance have a read of Irwin Stelzer in the Times today holding forth on some of the challenges for the EV market in the states. For example, Hertz selling off a third of their EV fleet , because of the unexpected costs of repair and maintenance. Both GM and Ford slashing their EV production. They can make them ,but selling them is proving far more difficult and ironically  I think it is Ford transferring labour from EV factories back to fossil fuel factories !

Have a read ,because of course the USA may just be a leading indicator of what is to come for European manufacturers.

Contrary to how it may appear I hope EV's do succeed if only to mete out some harsh new realities for some major oil producing countries who really are not friends of the world. However, it is becoming ever more clear that this is developing into yet another government LED fiasco of unforeseen consequences and by that I certainly  do not mean the UK govt alone.

I think if there is one truism you can rely upon it is that you will come a cropper developing policies that are being force fed to you by idealists. The latter are invariably 'blind' to anything ,but theirown narrow point of view.

[Malc1]

10 hours ago, Boomer54 said:

Contrary to how it may appear I hope EV's do succeed

is this a precursor to your Milk Float acquisition  ?

Malc

[GMB]

Could be a good thing. All those dirt cheap 3 yr old electric cars available for banger racing soon .

[Boomer54]

6 minutes ago, Malc1 said:

is this a precursor to your Milk Float acquisition  ?

 

Yes, definitely my opening rationalising as to why that milk float is a must. Probably have to strengthen it a bit for the inevitable divorce proceedings that would follow.

[Bluemarlin]

I'm not sure I'd be too quick to compare the US to Europe with regards EVs,  as there are a number of factors that make them different.

One is that Americans drive around twice as much as anyone else, so range and charging are more important. They also have a lot of people living in rural, fairly isolated areas. ICE cars are also cheap, and petrol is substantially cheaper in the US than Europe, so there's little to no financial incentive to transition.

Ultimately, driving a petrol car in the US is a very cheap and easy way to travel compared to Europe. EVs may not be so convenient or cheap in Europe, but differential is far less.

[Boomer54]

1 hour ago, Bluemarlin said:

I'm not sure I'd be too quick to compare the US to Europe with regards EVs,  as there are a number of factors that make them different.

One is that Americans drive around twice as much as anyone else, so range and charging are more important. They also have a lot of people living in rural, fairly isolated areas. ICE cars are also cheap, and petrol is substantially cheaper in the US than Europe, so there's little to no financial incentive to transition.

Ultimately, driving a petrol car in the US is a very cheap and easy way to travel compared to Europe. EVs may not be so convenient or cheap in Europe, but differential is far less.

What I said was the states might be a leading indicator for what faces European manufacturer as opposed to comparing the two different markets. For example, the impact of repair and maintenance costs is I am reasonably sure  to be experienced in the same way on both sides of the Atlantic.  Infrastructure may be different due to geographical differences, but that will be a relative difference rather than polar opposites, and so forth.

Personally, I hear a lot of common sense coming from people like Toyota on how this may payout, but are politicians paying attention?

[ColinBarber]

15 hours ago, Boomer54 said:

Have a read ,because of course the USA may just be a leading indicator of what is to come for European manufacturers.

I'd have said that mainland Europe is the leading indicator and the US catching up. Growth is there but seems to be mainly driven by government subsidies at the moment - those subsidies prevent non-US built cars being competitive, and as a result many European manufacturers aren't making all their EV models available which limits consumer choice.

https://insideevs.com/news/705215/us-plugin-car-sales-2023/

As above from Bill, the US is a big place and average journey lengths are much longer which means range issues can be real rather than just perceived as in Europe.

[Linas.P]

20 hours ago, Boomer54 said:

If you get a chance have a read of Irwin Stelzer in the Times today holding forth on some of the challenges for the EV market in the states. For example, Hertz selling off a third of their EV fleet , because of the unexpected costs of repair and maintenance. Both GM and Ford slashing their EV production. They can make them ,but selling them is proving far more difficult and ironically  I think it is Ford transferring labour from EV factories back to fossil fuel factories !

Have a read ,because of course the USA may just be a leading indicator of what is to come for European manufacturers.

Contrary to how it may appear I hope EV's do succeed if only to mete out some harsh new realities for some major oil producing countries who really are not friends of the world. However, it is becoming ever more clear that this is developing into yet another government led fiasco of unforeseen consequences and by that I certainly  do not mean the UK govt alone.

I think if there is one truism you can rely upon it is that you will come a cropper developing policies that are being force fed to you by idealists. The latter are invariably 'blind' to anything ,but theirown narrow point of view.

I am not sure US is indicator for how it will work out in Europe. Driving in US is way more popular than Europe (there are exceptions, but in general true), car culture is much stronger in US, people depend more on cars and fuel is still extremely cheap compared to Europe ($3.07/gallon ~ $0.80/litter). So obviously BEV demand in US will be much lower as there is no artificial constrains on ICE like in Europe. 

Now overall, some of the challenges will be similar, BEVs struggle to sell in Europe as well as charging network is not ready yet and we reached the saturation point (I have predicted this for years, those who were here long enough would know I was saying this for at least 5 years), basically everyone that has money and off-street parking and does sort of driving that justifies BEV already has one. Most of BEV sales nowadays are replacement, not conversion, because there is no more demand for growth, infrastructure is not ready to accept any more of BEVs. So that is similar and that is why sales are slowing down, but overall Europe is ahead of US in terms of adoption and will be ahead for foreseeable future. Mainly because in Europe it is much more beneficial to own BEV than in US, we have much more arbitrary charges on ICE and state subsides on BEVs than US.  

10 hours ago, GMB said:

Could be a good thing. All those dirt cheap 3 yr old electric cars available for banger racing soon .

Not really... unless you want to die in toxic inferno.

But on more serious note, crashing BEV prices are still generally good - some people who may benefit from BEV, but could not afford new one could pick-up one nearly new at huge discount. 

[Malc1]

Let alone the excessive prices new …… and huge depreciation levels …… jeez why do people buy them ……. zero financial acumen ……, I’d go nuts if and when my family members spent huge amounts of £££££ on any brand new cars …… I’d question their sanity and probably wipe them off my inheritors list 😂

Malc 

[Tickedon]

7 hours ago, Boomer54 said:

 

Personally, I hear a lot of common sense coming from people like Toyota on how this may payout, but are politicians paying attention?

No, they aren’t. E.g. Despite the noise from the Conservatives about pushing back the 2030 ICE ban, the annual BEV sale percentages haven’t changed. Manufacturers are being forced to sell and register BEVs as 22% of their total this year - despite only 16% of the market being BEV last year, and that being a slight dip on the year before. Consumers are not ready, infrastructure is not ready - but on pain of £15k fines per vehicle, politicians continue to force the impossible.

US has Trump, across Europe we have all sorts of new & interesting populist parties. At some point, citizens and societies crack - and I think voters are only just getting started after being ignored for decades.