How much is my car worth?

Tonyw · January 18

Hi

went to look over an LBX Takumi, it is quite nice and perfect for just me. Also looked at a 2yr old UX Fsport premium plus.

the salesperson has given me some new PCP deals based on a £5k deposit

Im looking at downsizing, leaving ES ownership before it leaves me and maybe even spending less which is why the second hand UX

to leave my PCP on my 7 month old ES will be £25k, which is fine as Motorway estimate it’s worth £32

Steven Eagel have offered me the same as we buy any car which is £23k!

so I will have to pay to get out of the ES, and I have lost over £2k per month on depreciation

now thinking try and sell with Motorway, if it goes for a reasonable amount I take my cash (if I have any) and go elsewhere

January 18

6 hours ago, Tonyw said:

Hi

went to look over an LBX Takumi, it is quite nice and perfect for just me. Also looked at a 2yr old UX Fsport premium plus.

the salesperson has given me some new PCP deals based on a £5k deposit

Im looking at downsizing, leaving ES ownership before it leaves me and maybe even spending less which is why the second hand UX

to leave my PCP on my 7 month old ES will be £25k, which is fine as Motorway estimate it’s worth £32

Steven Eagel have offered me the same as we buy any car which is £23k!

so I will have to pay to get out of the ES, and I have lost over £2k per month on depreciation

now thinking try and sell with Motorway, if it goes for a reasonable amount I take my cash (if I have any) and go elsewhere

I am thinking of doing the same as Motorway give me an estimate of around £29,797, for mine and my last settlement figure a couple of months ago was around £29,000, so it is now starting to look manageable at last to be able to clear my PCP deal and walk away from Lexus.

Tonyw · January 18

They have come back saying they will clear the PCP balance, but that still leaves me needing to find a new deposit and it also means I will have lost £1k per month since taking delivery last July.

as an examples of the current losses and the value drop, in June 2023 I traded in my Dec 2021 ES (16 months old) for £30k against my current one, paying off the £24k PcP and giving me £6k against the new one. I only lost £4K over 16 months on my first one.

In the six months I have had my new one, I have lost that £6k equity.

unless I can get a dealership through Motorway to buy it for the estimated £30k. Which will give me £4K back at least.

I think it is a case of the second hand market falling fast now delivery times are back, a flooding of used ES on the market recently. I saw 14 parked up at the dealership yesterday

george72 · January 18

This is all very depressing I have to say. What are people buying when selling their Es300hs?

wewillnotbefobbedoff · January 18

Not another Lexus, unless they are into masochism.

eightk · January 18

18 minutes ago, george72 said:

This is all very depressing I have to say. What are people buying when selling their Es300hs?

Something with some form of anti theft system?
Something they can insure?
Something that’s not going to be the next JLR?

Cs150 · January 18

Do not want to be negative tried to sell my ES with Carwow and Motorway but nothing came of it. They will give you a nice headline price but there simply is no takers. The used car market is heading down very quickly indeed and word is out on the ES thefts and it has damaged the reputation of the vehicle. Franchise dealers like Steven Eagell are completely overloaded with stock. You could try used car superstores like Arnold Clark and Motorpoint as well as many others. Worth shopping around but values are coming down weekly for the ES so would do it sooner rather than later and take the smallest hit possible.

e-yes · January 18

I really want to keep mine for as long as possible, I went in and out of three brand new cars to find the one that I love.

Getting bollard installed as well to protect it.

However, if the thefts continue and insurance continues to rise to unreasonable level then I will have to hand it back to Lexus and let it be their problem at the end of the PCP term 😕

--E

rayaans · January 18

The real reason is that many people don't buy them

Steven Eagell took my RX at £3k more than WBAC

They simply dont want saloons that they have difficulty selling on. Its all about the SUVs nowadays and the saloons are having a depreciation crisis in comparison

wewillnotbefobbedoff · January 18

Hi all,

If you habe mot already done so please look a genersl forum, canbus theft scandal AND make a comment. It all adds up.

Make the noise.

Lexus - uninsureable, unsellable, stolen, never again!

Linas.P · January 18

11 hours ago, Tonyw said:

leaving ES ownership before it leaves me and maybe even spending less which is why the second hand UX

You got me confused here - so if I understood you correctly... you afraid of CANBUS vulnerability, but you looking to replace it with UX, which has same vulnerability?

Or is it because Lexus offers some sort of protection for UX, but not ES?

Tonyw · January 18

46 minutes ago, Linas.P said:

You got me confused here - so if I understood you correctly... you afraid of CANBUS vulnerability, but you looking to replace it with UX, which has same vulnerability?

Or is it because Lexus offers some sort of protection for UX, but not ES?

To be honest it’s more the depreciation that is killing me.

At least at 3yrs old the UX has taken its biggest hit, you would of thought

Linas.P · January 18

1 minute ago, Tonyw said:

To be honest it’s more the depreciation that is killing me.

At least at 3yrs old the UX has taken its biggest hit, you would of thought

In that case yes - UX has taken hit and it is in demand, so likely won't depreciate much for some time.

Tickedon · January 18

I’d suggest looking at installing a Ghost or similar. £500 and will stop them taking your car, but not damaging it in the process.

A new ES can be had with sizable discounts via brokers (£6-7k off) and so the motorway offer seems very high. The WBAC price I’m afraid seems reasonable - £1k per month depreciation in the first year is on the low end compared to many new cars….

PDM · January 18

2 hours ago, rayaans said:

The real reason is that many people don't buy them

Steven Eagell took my RX at £3k more than WBAC

They simply dont want saloons that they have difficulty selling on. Its all about the SUVs nowadays and the saloons are having a depreciation crisis in comparison

Rayaan,

If you bought your gen 5 RX from Steven Eagell, then they would have been looking at the complete deal. WBAC were just looking at the gen 4 RX in isolation, so I'm not sure this suggests that Lexus dealers are more desperate for gen 4 RX then ES any more than it suggests they are keen to sell new vehicles.

Final sales figures for 2023 show almost as many ES sold as RX. This surprised me.

Paul

Spock66 · January 19

If you sell a nearly new car you will definitely take a big financial hit in depreciation.

If you keep the car it may get stolen, (but however bad the stats are the majority of vehicles are not stolen), if it is you make an insurance claim, albeit you may not get a full market value pay out.

The disadvantage of keeping a car at potential risk is peace of mind and insurance costs.

This is my logic at least.

Tonyw · January 19

2 hours ago, Spock66 said:

If you sell a nearly new car you will definitely take a big financial hit in depreciation.

If you keep the car it may get stolen, (but however bad the stats are the majority of vehicles are not stolen), if it is you make an insurance claim, albeit you may not get a full market value pay out.

The disadvantage of keeping a car at potential risk is peace of mind and insurance costs.

This is my logic at least.

I agree on the depreciation hit

but it has surprised me this time how big (for a Lexus)

as mentioned I bought a new ES in Dec 21 (1st of the touchscreen models) for £34k with £24k on the PCP after deals, done 5k miles went back to the dealership after 18 months and they gave me £30k, paying off the PCP and leaving £6k as deposit on my current car.

skip forward to now, I paid £35k this time with £25k on the PCP after my initial period. I have done 2700 miles and it is 7 months old. But they are telling me it is worth less than my PCP balance.

how can I go from only loosing £4K over 18 months to this time loosing potentially up to £12k over 7 months

A car with £40k list price, ok it’s is normally nearer £35/36 with discounts has lost 33% in 7 months

Navnan2 · January 19

I take delivery of an ES in the next few days, what have I done! 😭

Spock66 · January 19

2 hours ago, Tonyw said:

how can I go from only loosing £4K over 18 months to this time loosing potentially up to £12k over 7 months

So some of this may be due to the Can bus issue, but the used car market has been crazy over the past couple of years with prices first rising significantly and now falling back to more typical levels of depreciation.

DBIZO · January 19

1 hour ago, Tonyw said:

I agree on the depreciation hit

but it has surprised me this time how big (for a Lexus)

as mentioned I bought a new ES in Dec 21 (1st of the touchscreen models) for £34k with £24k on the PCP after deals, done 5k miles went back to the dealership after 18 months and they gave me £30k, paying off the PCP and leaving £6k as deposit on my current car.

skip forward to now, I paid £35k this time with £25k on the PCP after my initial period. I have done 2700 miles and it is 7 months old. But they are telling me it is worth less than my PCP balance.

how can I go from only loosing £4K over 18 months to this time loosing potentially up to £12k over 7 months

A car with £40k list price, ok it’s is normally nearer £35/36 with discounts has lost 33% in 7 months

It's not the car, it's the market. In '21 and '22 the market was very tight, interest on carrying forecourt inventory was lower, and supply chain inflation was high due to component shortages. Now the supply-demand balance shifted back to oversupply, interest is high which reduces second-hand demand and increases the cost of keeping the cars for dealers means that they are forced to offload more cars by reducing the price. This is what hits you now, but the comparison to your previous is made more difficult by an unusually low depreciation due to market tightness.

Tonyw · January 19

Yep, agree with all the theories, been around cars a long time now. I know all about the heavy first year losses on most brands 20-30%. I have followed trends for decades and have never known a Lexus to loose 30% in 6 months on the price I paid.

if you base it on retail of £40k, I have lost over 40% in 6 months.

its mad.

i am trapped now, and will have to carry on (with a really nice car that I love driving) until my PCP needs paying next May. At which point I will give back the keys and find something else a few years old.