What is China doing about it?

Malc1 · February 4

24 minutes ago, Boomer54 said:

I have one word for you Monte Carlo and I don't mean the place.

"The Monte Carlo Analysis is a risk management technique,"

Not every dip is a buying opportunity indeed if you don't utiliise some form of the above the chance is decent it will be "wipe out". Sometimes dips just keep getting deeper and without some strong signal giving a political change of direction that about sums up China.

Thinking it’s already that “ rout “ ……. deeper and deeper rout trundling along inexorably until that magic moment arrives when someone will see that “ opportunity “ to pop a trillion or so into that Chinese situation …… it will happen I’m sure, just don’t know when into that daily deepening “ rout” …… someone’s going to be buying at some level hugely distressed I’m sure ……. just don’t know when and with who’s money 🥳

Malc

Boomer54 · February 4

1 hour ago, Malc1 said:

Thinking it’s already that “ rout “ ……. deeper and deeper rout trundling along inexorably until that magic moment arrives when someone will see that “ opportunity “ to pop a trillion or so into that Chinese situation …… it will happen I’m sure, just don’t know when into that daily deepening “ rout” …… someone’s going to be buying at some level hugely distressed I’m sure ……. just don’t know when and with who’s money 🥳

Malc

I am glad you are not 'sure' , because as I have said before there are some parallels with the Chinese/Japanese situation and if I threw up a chart of say Japanese equity after their boom and bust you would note that buying into that situation made you virtually nothing for an awful long time meanwhile inflation adjusted you were even deeper in the hole. If you've got the spare 30 years plus to hang about trying to be right then ok, but frankly this is way beyond the attention span of virtually every investor.

Malc1 · February 4

17 minutes ago, Boomer54 said:

I am glad you are not 'sure' , because as I have said before there are some parallels with the Chinese/Japanese situation and if I threw up a chart of say Japanese equity after their boom and bust you would note that buying into that situation made you virtually nothing for an awful long time meanwhile inflation adjusted you were even deeper in the hole. If you've got the spare 30 years plus to hang about trying to be right then ok, but frankly this is way beyond the attention span of virtually every investor.

You mention Japan ……. Just checking my Black Rock stuff and it’s ( Japan ) pretty moribund these past couple of years ……. time maybe to switch it to that rout-ingesque Chinese opportunities 😂

Malc

Boomer54 · February 4

44 minutes ago, Malc1 said:

You mention Japan ……. Just checking my Black Rock stuff and it’s ( Japan ) pretty moribund these past couple of years ……. time maybe to switch it to that rout-ingesque Chinese opportunities 😂

Malc

I recognise the strategy, the lemin cliffedge approach to investment.😉

Malc1 · February 4

Skweezing lemons till the pips pop ……. Lemin-aid all round

Investments uh ! I’ve made mine in Ls400s it seems ….. Japanese style too

Malc

dutchie01 · February 4

With China there is an underlying issue connected to economic growth or stability, namely people control. Beeing the high tech dictatorship it is it will have to keep the population satisfied/frightened. Fear runs deep within the Chinese community even abroad. I have a Chinese neighbour in my office centre and he told me that even amongst other Chinese he does not talk freely as he once got a call from his mother in China telling him he has to stop talking as they will get into trouble. So, fear rules. But Economic stability is also vital. Lots of Chinese used their savings to invest in the real estate market. They really think that housing always gets more expensive and your money will be safe. Until now. These people lost their money and are protesting in their thousands. If the economy goes down people will stop spending and so on. Social unrest is something the Xiś of the world would want to prevent at any cost?

Malc1 · February 4

Social Unrest, as we have seen in “ liberated “ Hong Kong is firmly and violently put down and just not tolerated ……

….. it’s the way of the Regime and maybe a certain reason why the Evergrandes just won’t go “ bust “. coz of the zillions invested by the population in unfinished and unbuilt new homes …… Xi’s Achilles heel maybe ….. his only fear perhaps ……..

Not much else to keep him awake at night 🤔

Malc

Malc1 · February 6

Did u note I’ve instructed BlackRock to go “ buy “ …… seriously I’m thinking it’s all about to change in the China Markets …… sentiments turned away from “ all gloom and doom “ these past days …. It’s “ gloom and not so much gloom “

Xis got the message 🤥

Malc

Boomer54 · February 6

40 minutes ago, Malc1 said:

Did u note I’ve instructed BlackRock to go “ buy “ …… seriously I’m thinking it’s all about to change in the China Markets …… sentiments turned away from “ all gloom and doom “ these past days …. It’s “ gloom and not so much gloom “

Xis got the message 🤥

Malc

Go for it. I've got your back. I'll be sure to have some cash on me when I'm around Waitrose.😉

Malc1 · February 7

Inexorable rise these past 2 days in the China indexes ….. returning confidence I’m reading

Must have heard of my instructing Black Rock to review and “ buy “ 😂

Malc

dutchie01 · February 8

Just saw some scary statistics about China as car manufacturer compared to the rest of the world.

2011 Europe produced 28,2% of all cars worldwide and China 20,1% , mainly for the local market.

2022 Europe produced 19,4% and China 34,1% now also being the biggest exporter worldwide of cars.

Allianz Trade is saying the European Automotive sector is at risk currently employing some 13 million people. This is including suppliers like electronics, plastics, metal etc. Currently 4 out of 5 cars sold in Europe are assembled in Europe and they think that will disappear. In future all cars will be manufactured in China by a Chinese company or a European manufacturer producing there. They are warning about de-industrialization in Europe and are drawing parallels to the solar panel market.

Not happy reading...

GMB · February 8

4 minutes ago, dutchie01 said:

They are warning about de-industrialization in Europe and are drawing parallels to the solar panel market.

Not happy reading...

Sounds a bit like what happened to the mobile phone market/manufacture . Taking your production figures a step further --- 2011 europe production 28%../.. 2022 ditto 19%../..2033 ditto 11% .../..2044 ( if we ever reach that! ) 2%.

A lot can happen in 11 yrs....... Help!😨

Boomer54 · February 8

1 hour ago, dutchie01 said:

Just saw some scary statistics about China as car manufacturer compared to the rest of the world.

2011 Europe produced 28,2% of all cars worldwide and China 20,1% , mainly for the local market.

2022 Europe produced 19,4% and China 34,1% now also being the biggest exporter worldwide of cars.

Allianz Trade is saying the European Automotive sector is at risk currently employing some 13 million people. This is including suppliers like electronics, plastics, metal etc. Currently 4 out of 5 cars sold in Europe are assembled in Europe and they think that will disappear. In future all cars will be manufactured in China by a Chinese company or a European manufacturer producing there. They are warning about de-industrialization in Europe and are drawing parallels to the solar panel market.

Not happy reading...

It isn't zero sum. China expanding auto manufacture is probably one of the reasons Germany is really struggling to even get back to where they were pre pandemic.

Strange thing is politically Europe seems still to be trying to have a better relationship with China.

Boomer54 · February 8

20 hours ago, Malc1 said:

Inexorable rise these past 2 days in the China indexes ….. returning confidence I’m reading

Must have heard of my instructing Black Rock to review and “ buy “ 😂

Malc

Malc, markets just never go just one way. The expression for a resurgence in China is 'dead cat bounce' and they can be profitable for traders getting in and out quite quickly. For investors they just mean getting locked into value traps.

Ironically, a la Japan of the 90's China's biggest problem looks like being deflation!

Malc1 · February 8

Me, along with almost 100% of the world population hasn’t much of a clue as to how the China economic situation will pan out …… there’s these “ ups and downs “ and uninvestable situations ……. that become investable …….. and Emperor Xi giving sway to whichever his Advisers diktat dictates ……. 20% of global population and now with enough surplus housing to house the whole population once again ……. never in the crises of global ( and UK ) housing has such an incredible situation been extant …… Evergrande and All those totally bust housing creating businesses with unfathomable debt that’s been fuelled by, for some strange reason, lots of Western investing funds ……. into uninvestable businesses and assets …… Fact is those investments have been made and are quite likely locked in ….. China has manipulated global funding and will probably continue to do so …… possibly part of the current Game Plan ……. that we all seem to think is “ uninvestable “ BUT it actually is ……. because those investments actually ARE MADE

I would encourage Black Rock to be buying some of this “ uninvestable “ asset regime at say 30% of current “ book value “ ……. I think 🤔 it’s going to pan out ok in the short, medium and possibly longer term …….

After all, Black Rock has now taken an amazing unfathomable but tiny position in Crypto that has “ stabilised “ this dopey crypto market …… not for me …… nor Warren Buffet …… unless the credibility sentiment oozing from Black Rock has groaned it’s way into his thinking ……. not for me tho’

Malc

Redefined · February 8

I think this by Katie Halper could happily live here. Genocide, ethnic cleansing, double standards and stealing land should be called exactly what it is...

Even YT is in on the genocide enabling (you might think not, just like Elon Musk couldn't afford to lose money from calling it what it is). Katie halper is one of the best news channels on the matter and they bring on the modern day John Pilgers and Noam Chomskys.

Be well..

Malc1 · February 8

China today and forever in it's past, the UK some years back in parts of Africa, Yugoslavia breakdown/breakup and the Genocide and Ethnic Cleansing there . Myanamar, Australia and America, New Zealand with the Maori differing tribes wiping out the opposition they didn't much like ....... and blame it all on the white settlers ............ with indigenous peoples

Genocide, Ethnic Cleansing has forever been perpetrated by whomsoever wherever whenever ... it's nothing new .............. and it will doubtless continue in other "respected " regimes around the world

Malc

dutchie01 · February 8

It is around the corner Malc and will raise its head when opportunity arises. Humans are the worst predators on the planet but we like to think we are civilized, thats all.

Boomer54 · February 8

There is a big danger here. If you wish to discuss, or condemn previous expansionist policy without considering the social development of the world at that time then you might as well join the 'cancel it mob'.

Malc1 · February 8

58 minutes ago, Boomer54 said:

There is a big danger here. If you wish to discuss, or condemn previous expansionist policy without considering the social development of the world at that time then you might as well join the 'cancel it mob'.

Ah, the progress the world Societies make eh !

Malc

Boomer54 · February 8

40 minutes ago, Malc1 said:

Ah, the progress the world Societies make eh !

Malc

Some parts of it more than others.

Bluemarlin · February 9

19 hours ago, Malc1 said:

Ah, the progress the world Societies make eh !

Malc

Progress also often just means being better at hiding your wrongdoings 😉

dutchie01 · February 9

Genocide and ethnic cleansing have been around since the dark ages. Its in all of us, that new neighbour that is different to us.. That kid in school with thoses glasses, that colleague with the wrong trainers, that friend of a friend with the wrong religion, that guy down the road with the wrong skin color, that guy from the next village. Does it matter to put it in the right context? I truly dispise the cancel mob, its egoistic self centered elitist left wing types blocking streets, throwing soup at paintings. Do we really need to put ethnic cleansing in some sort of perspective? Mass killings fitting the social development of the world at the time? Bad is bad, wrong is wrong. China is wrong big time beeing a dictatorship. Feel free to buy a car from there. Its cheap so lets go!

Malc1 · February 9

I’m not at all sure “ it’s in all of us “ tbh

concerns me that so many countries are happy, at least initially, with the China Belt and Road initiative that puts them in hock forever to China and it’s regime ……. and it’s influence

China is a global force for whatever it wishes to be …… it’s drawn so much Western investment in and changed the accepted global financial rules to totally bugger up this western investors, now uninvestable, now non-assets ….. Financial Paper Assets at a 1% likely valuation for non-Chinese investors ONLY

China has changed all their ground rules to obliterate conventional “ ground rules “

China I don’t believe sees anything wrong in all it does and that includes disrespecting Peoples of the World including where appropriate for the China State any and all concepts of Genocide and Ethnic Cleansing ……. anywhere within its spheres of influence

I might be totally wrong, I hope so but I’m not seeing it in any sort of positive happy light 🤔

Malc

Boomer54 · February 10

15 hours ago, Malc1 said:

I’m not at all sure “ it’s in all of us “ tbh

concerns me that so many countries are happy, at least initially, with the China Belt and Road initiative that puts them in hock forever to China and it’s regime ……. and it’s influence

China is a global force for whatever it wishes to be …… it’s drawn so much Western investment in and changed the accepted global financial rules to totally bugger up this western investors, now uninvestable, now non-assets ….. Financial Paper Assets at a 1% likely valuation for non-Chinese investors ONLY

China has changed all their ground rules to obliterate conventional “ ground rules “

China I don’t believe sees anything wrong in all it does and that includes disrespecting Peoples of the World including where appropriate for the China State any and all concepts of Genocide and Ethnic Cleansing ……. anywhere within its spheres of influence

I might be totally wrong, I hope so but I’m not seeing it in any sort of positive happy light 🤔

Malc

You don't need to be that worried. China has not rewritten any financial rules. People backing the wrong horse and getting wiped out has always been part of the risk of investment. For example, Argentina have been wiping out creditors on their govt debt for decades through devaluation and default...boom boom.

China have been behind nearly 4 decades of global deflation, but that 's pretty much a thing of the past now.

Their growth chart has been heading in the wrong direction for at least the last few years. Are there still opportunities in such a large economy, of course. Are they worth the risk given the political and economic disruption of the last few years? For some people they will always be worth the risk, but notably more than a few well respected money managers have pulled the plug.

As I said earlier (your comment notwithstanding about so many people being clueless about Chinas economic future), I am better than 80 % confident that China faces decades of economic stagnation and deflation is the ultimate downside of nigh on 4 decades of above average growth. So many people underestimate the time frames for these issues to play out. For example, given the rocket like growth of US GDP post 1900 and the initial reaction that was the 1929 Wall Street crash who would have thought the US market would not regain it's former peak until nearly 1950 !! Yes 20 years plus of false recoveries and ironically WW2 probably helped that period to be shorter than it otherwise would have been. Japan following their boom were not so lucky and they have been struggling to escape deflation and stagnation for at least 3 decades plus.

History does not need to exactly repeat itself , for these economic behavioural patterns to make themselves known.