What is China doing about it?

[MartinH]

True the Alfasud was a rustbox but what a sensational drive! I rented one (in Turin) only weeks after its launch and took it for a thrash in the hills. The roadholding and handling were far beyond anything one had experienced previously.

Can we get back to heuristics and the early days of the interwebz now please? It was getting so interesting.

[Malc1]

11 hours ago, MartinH said:

one (in Turin)

when i was touring around there a few years back I did notice in large measure the Turin steel road barriers, rather than being silvery coloured like ours and everywhere else in the world were actually  RUSTY    .  the same metal used to produce the cars I'm sure 😉

Malc

[Bluemarlin]

18 hours ago, Linas.P said:

For Iran is draw at best... some of the stats you mentioned are interesting, but quite far away from being indicative of "hidden pro-western" sentiment. It remains to be seen, but my bet would be that iran will remain on the side of china and ruzzia in short-to-midterm future. 

So you are using chinese stats, because if you wouldn't be using them then you wouldn't say BYD overtook Tesla, because the didn't... Also BYD isn't a Tesla (not to say Tesla is great company, if anything I would predict they will be bankrupt in less than decade)... it is like saying Casio overtook Rolex in volume of watches that they have sold... no sorry wrong analogy... because Tesla is not Rolex, Tesla is more like Casio.. and BYD is more like Ching-chong-chow watch company which makes cars primarily for Chinese market. Their sales are primarily Chinese market and therefore the numbers are outright fake. Apparently they sold 270,000 cars outside of China (mostly poor developing countries) which is the number I trust, yet they state that is mere 3% of their total production... meaning they claim to have made 9 million cars total. This being Chinese numbers I would say it would be safe to divide it in half twice. Not to mention they not exclusively making BEVs even if they claims they have sold twice as many BEVs as Tesla.

Also I know and I understand that some models of BYD looks to good to be true, but you guessed it - that is because they are not true. I have been in BYD factory and I have seen the cars they make (be it in 2018 and I assume things have changed since then), they look very nice from few metres away, but they are made of trash, literally fall to pieces in days of use. The only real value of BYD is their ownership of foreign car companies, the china business will always remain domestic only, maybe some other poor countries, but it will never meet our standards (this statement may age badly). 

China has strong central "government" (dictatorship) with strong central planning policies, so if they want to build 10 gazillion solar power stations, or billions of BEVs they can simply decide and do it and then report whatever they like. That doesn't make them advanced or green, if you thought greenwashing is bad in the west then it looks almost funny in China. Corruption is rampant, so when they say they built whatever million of something, then realistically 50% was never built and 50% of remaining 50% was defective and then 50% of remaining 25% failed within days of running. This applies to everything and brings us nicely on absolutelly 100% fake BYD sales figures. They not overtook shaite - they build EVs and park them in the fields to rot. It is all centrally planned, they been told to beat Tesla by government and they did it ON PAPER. Those cars were not sold, some of them probably were not even built. Also beating Tesla in sales volumes is kind of irrelevant fact, Tesla sales volumes are irrelevant, so what that they beaten Tesla? When they going to beat Toyota, VW Group in validated and accurate sales figures outside of china that is going to count. I can also invent any number myself, but it does not make it true. That is before even considering that EVs aren't even good for environment (my personal opinion) and current generation EVs will soon be obsolete massive piles of toxic waste. So china might be leading in some thing, but they are not necessarily good things.

Honestly - you have way too much faith in China and non-sensical stats they provide. The whole country is backwards, culturally the people are medieval, it would have taken them 50 years to catch-up with the west and that was before they started making leaps backwards due to deranged authoritarian regime which wants to control power at any cost.

Now final thing regarding China... which could look like I am contradicting myself here - our governments sadly fails to curtain their regime influence and we may end-up too dependant on them. Sadly they remain too convenient and profitable to do business with that we still look past things like genocide happening there... and they with their centrally run dictatorship are more efficient than us and may catch-up or even overtake us if we let them.

So they not looking for "investment", they have already secured it and Microsoft has few billions to burn anyway. Yeah makes sense.

Most of my shorter posts are written by AI already which impersonates my style of writing quite well, I just adjust it slightly and it is good to go.

It is both far more advanced that people think... and far more dumber that people thing. Although much is to do with artificial limits added. For example Chat GPT was amazing when it launched and now it is barely useable, because they basically castrated it and created so much rules preventing it from working properly that 9 times out of 10 I get answer - "I’m sorry, but I can’t assist with that. Let’s move on to a new topic."

Pro western and democratic sentiment amongst the Iranian population is far from hidden and fairly well known. Another interesting stat is that polling shows that over two thirds don't want government run by religious law. I say interesting (funny even), because similar polls show that half of all Americans think the bibile should have some influence over law. I'm not saying we'll be allies any day soon, but education and demographic changes suggest that in the next 20-30 years they could be far more politically aligned with the West than any other country in the region. 

It's not so much faith in China, nor it about their own green efforts. Regardless of whether you believe their numbers on that, they still supply most of the green tech to the rest of the world. I don't disagree with some of the things you say, but do think you underestimate them.  In fact I think the West does in general, which further plays into their hands.

Again, investment in that particular Battery tech is immaterial. As I said, there are many research projects looking into the generation and storage of renewable energy. Most or all of these will be accelerated by the use of AI, which can not only work many times faster than people, but at a substantially lower cost. And i'm talking about the non castrated versions, available to the likes of Micosoft and Google.

[Malc1]

3 hours ago, Bluemarlin said:

I'm not saying we'll be allies any day soon, but education and demographic changes suggest that in the next 20-30 years they could be far more politically aligned with the West than any other country in the region. 

Is this supposing Trump trumps the polls and the USA at last becomes aligned to the rest of the Western World ........  you are talking about the USA rather than Iran  ??

Malc

[Linas.P]

5 hours ago, Bluemarlin said:

20-30 years they could be far more politically aligned with the West than any other country in the region. 

I don't disagree with some of the things you say, but do think you underestimate them.  In fact I think the West does in general, which further plays into their hands.

If we are talking about 20-30 years perspective then anything is possible, I would not speculate where Iran will be in 30 years. 

Also I agree with your second point - west underestimates how evil and efficient dictatorships could be and relies too much on China. Same mistake as relying on ruzzian oil, becoming too dependant on dictatorships is generally bad idea.

Likewise I agree that AI will shape our future very soon, I am just not convince we will need BEVs in the future or that they will help environment, so anything in that direction in my view is wasted effort. Primarily because cars are minor contributor to global warming. If we want to tackle global warming we need to look into other sources of emissions. 

 

[Bluemarlin]

20 hours ago, Linas.P said:

 I am just not convince we will need BEVs in the future or that they will help environment, so anything in that direction in my view is wasted effort. Primarily because cars are minor contributor to global warming. If we want to tackle global warming we need to look into other sources of emissions. 

 

Well I'll concede your point about BEVs and the environment, on the grounds that a lot depends on how the electricity to charge them is generated.

However, regardless of whether we need them, they're simply better technology than ICE, always have been. The first Porsche was electric,  and the only thing that stopped electric cars being the default choice was Battery tech. Solve that and have cars with 1000 mile range and fast charging, and you'll have faster, quieter cars with fewer moving, wearable parts, that require less servicing.  

Also, once you shift our dependence from fossil fuels to renewables, you also shift our reliance away from those evil dictators and further towards energy dependence. I have mixed views on the environmental issues, but they've been the catalyst that is driving research and innovation away from outdated technologies and towards a future that holds far more possibilities than oil and gas ever could.

[Linas.P]

I agree with that, my problem is rather prioritisation - we starting from smallest and least polluting industry (Transportation) rather than most polluting (Manufacturing). As such we are inefficient in making those vehicles which suppose to be greener to be. Also for me it seems that BEVs are more of political tool to control and punish the population rather than genuine attempt at solving climate change. I know it sounds little bit like conspiracy theory, but one has to question why we are forced in using public transport "because of little pollution caused by cars", but we actually encourages to consume as much as possible otherwise?

Yes I agree - source of our fuel are still evil dictatorships, if not in form of ruzzian czars then in middle-eastern sheiks... having fuel source which does not require to be dependant on authoritarian regimes would be welcome, sadly BEVs are just not there yet and trying to force them upon population right now feels like sub-optimal solution.

[Bluemarlin]

8 hours ago, Linas.P said:

I agree with that, my problem is rather prioritisation - we starting from smallest and least polluting industry (Transportation) rather than most polluting (Manufacturing). As such we are inefficient in making those vehicles which suppose to be greener to be. Also for me it seems that BEVs are more of political tool to control and punish the population rather than genuine attempt at solving climate change. I know it sounds little bit like conspiracy theory, but one has to question why we are forced in using public transport "because of little pollution caused by cars", but we actually encourages to consume as much as possible otherwise?

Yes I agree - source of our fuel are still evil dictatorships, if not in form of ruzzian czars then in middle-eastern sheiks... having fuel source which does not require to be dependant on authoritarian regimes would be welcome, sadly BEVs are just not there yet and trying to force them upon population right now feels like sub-optimal solution.

You're right, it might be sub optimal from a climate point of view but, given that car manufacturers have got on board easily enough, perhaps it was the easiest place to start. You appear to have a fixation with being punished, but I don't see it that way. Sure, it's an annoyance, but I suspect that politically it's more about window dressing, and keeping up appearances, than anything else.

The reality is that we had to get there eventually, and any transition will be inconvenient and expensive. We just happened to draw the short straw when it came to timing.

Nor would I be too concerned about us being inefficient in making the vehicles. We've been inefficient at making ICE ones for a while. Besides, we can always just buy them from China 😉

[Linas.P]

8 hours ago, Bluemarlin said:

You're right, it might be sub optimal from a climate point of view but, given that car manufacturers have got on board easily enough, perhaps it was the easiest place to start. You appear to have a fixation with being punished, but I don't see it that way. Sure, it's an annoyance, but I suspect that politically it's more about window dressing, and keeping up appearances, than anything else.

The reality is that we had to get there eventually, and any transition will be inconvenient and expensive. We just happened to draw the short straw when it came to timing.

Nor would I be too concerned about us being inefficient in making the vehicles. We've been inefficient at making ICE ones for a while. Besides, we can always just buy them from China 😉

I know you don't see it that way, but that doesn't mean we are no punished... I certainly am punished.

I agree with you that this is more about "windows dressing", but that is mainly my point - I could be on board and can make sacrifices if I see it as necessary evil and if I can see it working, however I am strongly against it exactly for this reason (it being empty sacrifice). Why should I sacrifice for politicians "keeping appearances"? Besides I would genuinely support actions that makes our environment better, so I see this as doubly bad as not only we focusing on wrong thing, but also we are distracted from doing the right thing. 

Not all transition has to be inconvenient and expensive, a lot of main sources of pollution could be tackled without public having to do anything at all about it. For example consumerism is big issue and if we can cut on low quality disposable goods, then it will be better for everyone and people would actually save money in long run.

We are very efficient in manufacturing ICE cars, the inefficiency comes from Battery production. You kind of right (not sure if that is what you intended to say here), but much of that inefficiency is currently hidden by simply buying batteries from China... and all the rest of the shaite. So we have this warped perception of pollution, because we don't count pollution of all shaite in import from China. This doesn't help either.

[Bluemarlin]

Fair enough Linas, I don't want to get into a climate debate but will just say that I'd agree if that's all we were focusing on, but we're not. We currently generate around half our electricity from renewables, so it's not just about cars.

[Malc1]

And there’s always the conundrum that the lifespan of a Lexus could be 30 years ICE and this outweighs the cost effectiveness, or lack of, and the nvirobmental cost, in scrapping and making brand new …… Lexus cars whatever 

Malc 

[GMB]

Mine's 12 yrs old this coming September and still drives like new. Nil spent on repairs ( apart from consumables and servicing over the lifetime ) believe it or not. I can't see any point in changing it to buy an expensive depreciating money pit that is easily stolen and full of unwanted gimmicks.  Maybe I'm just old fashioned?🧌🐈‍⬛

[Linas.P]

2 minutes ago, GMB said:

Mine's 12 yrs old this coming September and still drives like new. Nil spent on repairs ( apart from consumables and servicing over the lifetime ) believe it or not. I can't see any point in changing it to buy an expensive depreciating money pit that is easily stolen and full of unwanted gimmicks.  Maybe I'm just old fashioned?🧌🐈‍⬛

No - it is just like Lexus are. Also if you have ~ 2006 onwards Lexus, it already has 95% of features that even most modern cars lacks. Things like heated/cooled seats, memory etc. Thinking about it - the only thing my 2006 car does not have is little warning light for cross-traffic and lane change. I am retrofitting radar cruise later this year. The TPMS sucks, because it has it, but does not show individual tyres, which makes TPMS redundant and just annoying. And honestly I can't even think of what feature it does not have that new cars do? Traffic sign recognition maybe, but it is such a minor thing, GPS shows speed limit anyway. So really no point of replacing them. 

[Malc1]

1991 ( not as new as 2006 eh ) 33years young and counting. Heated seats too and SatNav on my Iphone works so well and always uptodate ….. wot more do I actually NEED one wonders ! 

Malc 

[Boomer54]

Whilst China may enjoy certain advantages with it's central methods of political and economic control we should never forget that no one is bigger than the financial markets. Money follows rewards and the flipside of that coin is it flows away from political risk that threatens those rewards. I thought it timely to remember this because Mr Market is once again 'caning' Xi's backside reminding him of this. He can ban short selling all he likes ,but historically he will be very disappointed by the outcome, because every notable market upsurge his comprised at least of some part of covering behaviour from shortsellers caught on the wrong side. Without that activity what you get is relatively illiquid activity and ultimately stagnation in performance.

Like many there was a time when I was thought China to be the land of the next great economic expansion capable of delivering huge rewards. Over time I discerned a change of mood from their govt that made me take a different view and although I exited early, possibly too early, I remain attached to the view that China is currently un-investable. The political risk factor far outweighs any expectation of sound high returns.

I doubt history will be looking favorably on Mr Xi's legacy.

NB. Evergrande more like Nevergrande. Mr HK court no likee

[Malc1]

54 minutes ago, Boomer54 said:

NB. Evergrande more like Nevergrande. Mr HK court no likee

BUT Xi will probably simply ignore all that's going on in the HK courts and the China State will still decide if and when, probably never, that Evergrande and the other property businesses will " liquidate "  ....  seemingly there's just too many indigenous people with huge debts to pay down on unbuilt, unfinished developments 

Xi isn't caught between a rock and a hard place .  he has the power and authority to move those rocks so far as China State is concerned and the rest of the world financial bodies and investors  can simply . " go take a bath " ............  China now has unlimited oil wealth courtesy of Russia exports to China and all the Rare Minerals China might ever need from his pally pally position with Putin who's allowing him to do just whatever he wishes ...........  China will go mine all that stuff across Siberia whatever and pay for it, well probably never eh !

Russia will become, or is now becoming,  the main vassal state of China .......... maybe in our lifetimes

Just my humble opinion ....  what would I know eh !  😉

Malc

[Boomer54]

13 minutes ago, Malc1 said:

BUT Xi will probably simply ignore all that's going on in the HK courts and the China State will still decide if and when, probably never, that Evergrande and the other property businesses will " liquidate "  ....  seemingly there's just too many indigenous people with huge debts to pay down on unbuilt, unfinished developments 

Xi isn't caught between a rock and a hard place .  he has the power and authority to move those rocks so far as China State is concerned and the rest of the world financial bodies and investors  can simply . " go take a bath " ............  China now has unlimited oil wealth courtesy of Russia exports to China and all the Rare Minerals China might ever need from his pally pally position with Putin who's allowing him to do just whatever he wishes ...........  China will go mine all that stuff across Siberia whatever and pay for it, well probably never eh !

Russia will become, or is now becoming,  the main vassal state of China .......... maybe in our lifetimes

Just my humble opinion ....  what would I know eh !  😉

Malc

Agree on your last point that Russia in isolating itself from the developed world has become dependent on the good will of China and indeed India.

Nonetheless, there will be a bill to pay for China regarding the global financial markets.

[Malc1]

5 minutes ago, Boomer54 said:

there will be a bill to pay for China regarding the global financial markets.

and methinks that " bill " will be probably paid by the continuing stream of global investors who have " stupidity " written all over their faces ....  and cheque books

newfound Rich Investors outside of China will arrive in sufficient numbers to keep the China State Machine well oiled for many decades to come

 

India ............  Russia won't export anymore oil to India coz they will only pay for it in non-convertible rupees and there's nowt left that Russia wants to, or can in fact buy from India and Russia is overflowing with pretty useless ( to Russia ) India currency .......  Modi's quite a sensible fella really ....  he's even thinking to source his India armaments from USA I'm thinking ........... the Russia armaments to be used against China with those Kashmiri conflicts can't even work well against Ukraine eh !

Malc

[Bluemarlin]

3 hours ago, Malc1 said:

and methinks that " bill " will be probably paid by the continuing stream of global investors who have " stupidity " written all over their faces ....  and cheque books

newfound Rich Investors outside of China will arrive in sufficient numbers to keep the China State Machine well oiled for many decades to come

Malc

That's true. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of that Middle East wealth invested in China.

Additionally, investment in China will have been hit by high interest rates making investment less attractive. With interest rates likely to fall further this year, China may start to look like value again.

Ultimately falling markets eventually reach a point at which they become attractive again.

[Newbie777]

I would like point out something about China. Do not consider them as 1 country. Do you know  how much land in Africa and Asian countries they have bought, from government deals?

There  assets are truly spread world wide. So if they do get squeezed, they have other options.

Yes Russia and China need each other. With Iran and a few other countries standing in unity.

[Malc1]

5 minutes ago, Newbie777 said:

I would like point out something about China. Do not consider them as 1 country. Do you know  how much land in Africa and Asian countries they have bought, from government deals?

There  assets are truly spread world wide. So if they do get squeezed, they have other options.

Yes Russia and China need each other. With Iran and a few other countries standing in unity.

I think I read that Australia is now questioning just how much land mass the Govt has relinquished / allowed China to acquire  …….. BUT on the other hand also reading how much land mass the USA has acquired of the ……. Sahara Desert 

There's some strange thinking going on around the world of land mass acquisitions 

Malc 

[Newbie777]

Malc it's shocking.I think they own about one fifth of Ghana.

Did not know that USA

[Boomer54]

8 hours ago, Bluemarlin said:

That's true. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of that Middle East wealth invested in China.

Additionally, investment in China will have been hit by high interest rates making investment less attractive. With interest rates likely to fall further this year, China may start to look like value again.

Ultimately falling markets eventually reach a point at which they become attractive again.

Let me point something out. Badly managed debt taken onto the public books is not a way to lower interest rates. The fact is that debt then impacts the rates you have to offer to attract investment. It doesn't stop there indeed an outflow of investment peessures your currency which in turn is pressure on your rates. The key determinant is exactly what balance of your debt is domestic and what is held by external creditors.

You want to understand the economic implications of this situation deep dive into Japanese economics starting about 30 years ago is a very good starting point.  China's boom and bust is very much a clone of a forerunner that started in Japan post WW2.

[Boomer54]

14 hours ago, Boomer54 said:

Let me point something out. Badly managed debt taken onto the public books is not a way to lower interest rates. The fact is that debt then impacts the rates you have to offer to attract investment. It doesn't stop there indeed an outflow of investment peessures your currency which in turn is pressure on your rates. The key determinant is exactly what balance of your debt is domestic and what is held by external creditors.

You want to understand the economic implications of this situation deep dive into Japanese economics starting about 30 years ago is a very good starting point.  China's boom and bust is very much a clone of a forerunner that started in Japan post WW2.

I suppose I should fess up that financial history and economics are my qualifying hobbies that LED me to found the Boring Men's Club 

I am recognisable at parties by the empty 6 feet circle around me.

[GMB]

2 minutes ago, Boomer54 said:

I suppose I should fess up that financial history and economics are my qualifying hobbies that led me to found the Boring Men's Club 

I am recognisable at parties by the empty 6 feet circle around me.

Just a polite reminder: You were fired last week. You have not yet produced a boring enough comment, although the cobbles fiasco is getting close.  OK - You're back in, but on probation for 3 months.