ES300 values

[DLX]

We are looking to go to one car as both are retired.   Decided the ES is the one to go as my wife wont drive it - too big!

Quite shocked at how low the offers are compared to an initial look a couple of months ago.....

It's a 19 plate premium with 40k miles....£15k is all anyone seems to want to offer.

Contacted couple of Lexus dealers who were advertising they wanted cars - not interested - fully stocked - not buying till the new year - had an influx of new vehicles.

May be too old for them?   They didn't say that.

I get it that this time of year many folk are focused on Christmas rather buying cars and obviously current economic climate  and interest rates are affecting the situation.

Anyone else seen or experienced this sort of thing at the moment?

[Cs150]

2 hours ago, DLX said:

We are looking to go to one car as both are retired.   Decided the ES is the one to go as my wife wont drive it - too big!

Quite shocked at how low the offers are compared to an initial look a couple of months ago.....

It's a 19 plate premium with 40k miles....£15k is all anyone seems to want to offer.

Contacted couple of Lexus dealers who were advertising they wanted cars - not interested - fully stocked - not buying till the new year - had an influx of new vehicles.

May be too old for them?   They didn't say that.

I get it that this time of year many folk are focused on Christmas rather buying cars and obviously current economic climate  and interest rates are affecting the situation.

Anyone else seen or experienced this sort of thing at the moment?

Values of housing and cars are starting to collapse, this is just the very start of the economic downturn. 2024 is going to be like 2008! 

[GMB]

9 minutes ago, Cs150 said:

Values of housing and cars are starting to collapse, this is just the very start of the economic downturn. 2024 is going to be like 2008! 

Quite possibly, but as opposed to 2008 where there was room in the economy for correction and propping up with funds, this time there is none. This is a longer term  correction even a collapse and rebuild possibly.

I recently had a weird encounter and a serious warning from a Greek taxi driver who was absolutely convinced that we were living in the "end of times". He may be right but they have said that before😵‍💫.

I had an even weirder conversation with some French Jehovah's witnesses who told me that Armageddon was just around the corner. They got told " What again!. When I explained that I have actually been to Armageddon  ( now known as Megido, in Israel ) and  it has already been destroyed, at least 3 times, they went away with a shrug. Probably thinking " zeese Stupide eeenglish peegs".

[Boomer54]

12 minutes ago, Cs150 said:

Values of housing and cars are starting to collapse, this is just the very start of the economic downturn. 2024 is going to be like 2008! 

If you want to make a statement like that and wish to be taken seriously you need to at least make some attempt to provide data that supports your statement.

In the absence of that let me make a statement, tell a story. In my biblical 3 score and 10 I have found out there is no magical crystal ball for seeing the future. Indeed, as a species we are awful at forecasting what lies ahead. In general, the amount of conviction people attach to their mystic Meg capabilities is highly correlated to the degree of fear they have over the uncertainty we all face.

If I had bailed on my investments everytime someone cried Wolf I would be out in front of Waitrose with a begging bowl and 3 legged dogs singing a duet with Malc on spoons.

There is actually a book about a circus performer back in the 50's who made a million dollars from his stock portfolio. Lot of money at the time hence they wrote a book about it disclosing his genius. The laugh is this there was no genius. He bought well and then beggared off to perform in France for ages not even looking at what was happening to his portfolio. Upon his return he finds he's rich and sells up. So, what is the secret? Easy isn't it, he was out of the loop away from all the noise that would be telling him to sell this ,or that. His luck was the market was on a roll while he was otherwise occupied. In another life of course he would have returned and found he was poor. C'est la vie. The bottomline is don't act from fear, hope ,or any emotion. Get the facts I am asking you for, or fold your arms ,have a cup of tea and watch the world go by.

[Cs150]

1 minute ago, Boomer54 said:

If you want to make a statement like that and wish to be taken seriously you need to at least make some attempt to provide data that supports your statement.

 

Lets revisit this thread in November 2024, those heavy in physical metals in allocated storage will do well.....

[GMB]

4 minutes ago, Boomer54 said:

Malc on spoons

Does Malc know he does "spoons"?

I have a prediction for you, my crystal balls tell me:

( In my best Gypsy Romanian twang )  -- One day soon ( a relative term BTW ) your cars will rot to bits, maybe not this year but beware!

I can guarantee that this will happen but can't give an accurate date. Depends how much salt they put down this winter.

[Boomer54]

1 hour ago, Cs150 said:

Lets revisit this thread in November 2024, those heavy in physical metals in allocated storage will do well.....

You heard the expression 'even a broken clock is right twice a day'? I always think it applies well when people take enough guesses about the future and randomly get one right. Think about it.

[Boomer54]

1 hour ago, GMB said:

Does Malc know he does "spoons"?

I have a prediction for you, my crystal balls tell me:

( In my best Gypsy Romanian twang )  -- One day soon ( a relative term BTW ) your cars will rot to bits, maybe not this year but beware!

I can guarantee that this will happen but can't give an accurate date. Depends how much salt they put down this winter.

Indeed, and if you had said that when my car was brand new off the factory line then you would have been wrong about 7,000 times by now, but one day you will be right Meg.

[rayaans]

Thats a very low offer for a 19 plate ES. 

Just give it time - you'll always have time wasters and low ballers. 

You can always put it up on motorway or carwow.

I think the lowest priced one on Autotrader is £20k. They probably want to make a large chunk of money! Roughly £5k!

[Cs150]

1 hour ago, Boomer54 said:

You heard the expression 'even a broken clock is right twice a day'? I always think it applies well when people take enough guesses about the future and randomly get one right. Think about it.

Have set a reminder in the schedule to reopen the thread one year from now. I believe my post will have aged quite well! The used car market is already collapsing in the US, strap in for a turbulent 2024....

[Boomer54]

17 minutes ago, Cs150 said:

Have set a reminder in the schedule to reopen the thread one year from now. I believe my post will have aged quite well! The used car market is already collapsing in the US, strap in for a turbulent 2024....

Just out of interest were you active in markets in the period 2005 to 2010?

[Cs150]

11 minutes ago, Boomer54 said:

Just out of interest were you active in markets in the period 2005 to 2010?

Not a big player in the markets. Physical gold is my thing been buying since it was £170 an Oz and not sold any yet. Price now is just under £1,600 an Oz. There is a reasonable chance that economic armageddon is around the corner. The last two decade binge on cheap credit is over and it is not going to end well...

[Boomer54]

8 minutes ago, Cs150 said:

Not a big player in the markets. Physical gold is my thing been buying since it was £170 an Oz and not sold any yet. Price now is just under £1,600 an Oz. There is a reasonable chance that economic armageddon is around the corner. The last two decade binge on cheap credit is over and it is not going to end well...

Thank you for answering my question.

[dutchie01]

Yes, prices of second hand cars are going down but dont forget they increased considerably over the last two years. Covid turned the market upside down. Shortage of electronics, parts and chips delayed production of new cars with leadtimes creaping up to 18 months.

Result was that everybody went for demos, used cars of 1/2 yrs old. These went within 6 months then all went for higher mileage ones. Covid also played a role a people refused public transport and bought a cheapo. Result is the second hand car market went crazy and prices increased by up to 30% with some popular models even more. I personally sold my wifes car for more than i paid for it 2 years ago. Crazy!

What you now see is a correction of the market. New cars are readily available. EVs are getting cheaper every month and everybody already bought a used car in the past 2 years. This means the used car market is in the dolldrums. Dont despair however as it will come back just hang on and give it another year, donts sell now

[Boomer54]

12 hours ago, Boomer54 said:

Thank you for answering my question.

You might like this guy, but for me he is the standout example of a man who got it right once. In essence people focus on the call he made that worked and completely overlook the fact that he has not made another call in his career. The irony is he talks about 'randomness' as though he understands it and yet apparently does not see how it describes his work.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Wikipedia

[Dippo]

15 hours ago, Cs150 said:

Have set a reminder in the schedule to reopen the thread one year from now. I believe my post will have aged quite well! The used car market is already collapsing in the US, strap in for a turbulent 2024....

If you're going to come back in a year's time to tell us you were right, could you please be bit more specific about what you are predicting? Just saying 'an economic downturn' and 'like 2008' is not going to get you a job as an economic forecaster. 

[Cs150]

4 hours ago, Dippo said:

If you're going to come back in a year's time to tell us you were right, could you please be bit more specific about what you are predicting? Just saying 'an economic downturn' and 'like 2008' is not going to get you a job as an economic forecaster. 

Difficult to predict specific dates due to the government distortions e.g. falsifying interest rates etc. certainly by the end of next year houses and cars will have taken a substantial hit. If you want to sell something large I would do it sooner rather than later as values will further decline. The larger aspect of the crash depends on government manipulation with respect to specific dates. What unfolds in the next few years will be certainly worse than 2008. I stand by the original statement that car and house prices will further have declined by the end of next year, the game is up for the debt obsessed UK economy. 

[Boomer54]

Son, if I had a quid for everytime I have heard that I would be richer than Malc. Midas the Lexus king of Shepney.

 

 

[mister_johnn]

It's not only the economy which is affecting the current value of the cars, is also the fact that more and more are being stolen and people avoid buying them or try to get rid of them creating surplus on the market which increases depreciation.

When I bought my last Lexus I was told by the sales representative that they avoid getting Lexus in their stock due to being really hard to sell and they end up making a loss, so whenever they to get one the price will be lower then in other places so they can sell it fast and make a profit, small but still a profit, at least this was the case or what I was told when I bought it. I bought it from a car supermarket, they only had the car I bought in stock from Lexus and it was a "bargain" due to being over 4k undervalued compared to similar cars with exactly the same age and specs. The car was in perfect condition and I drove it about 50k until it got stolen. Other than that never had any issues...

[SH20]

Trading my March 2022 ES300 Prem Pack at 22.5K miles for a 2017 LS500h Premier and took a hit on the ES when I could get no more that £27K for it after paying £32K in July this year.   I think we have seen the last of high value used cars.