Hydrogen fuel rollout.

[ColinBarber]

1 hour ago, Las Palmas said:

In Germany more than 50% is rather dirty. UK not much better.

Indeed, but it will improve over time as countries switch to more sustainable energy generation and therefore make EVs more friendly. An ICE vehicle will always need petrol/diesel and continue to pollute the same as it did when first purchased.

 

1 hour ago, Las Palmas said:

As soon as the batteries are no longer up to what was promised (7 - 12 years) batteries

Which? just published their research into EV Battery degradation. The worst (and oldest) were from 2014 with a 9% capacity drop. 5 year old vehicles are averaging 97% capacity. There is no evidence of batteries not lasting 12 years or more, just FUD being spread. There have been some early designs that caused problems, but that's always the case with new technology and Battery cell manufacturing and thermal Battery management systems are now much better - in the same way that early direct injection engines suffered problems, or no doubt early hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will suffer from non-optimum designs.

[Las Palmas]

2 minutes ago, ColinBarber said:

Indeed, but it will improve over time as countries switch to more sustainable energy generation and therefore make EVs more friendly. An ICE vehicle will always need petrol/diesel and continue to pollute the same as it did when first purchased.

Hope in one hand and spit in the other and trust politicians. The hand you hope in will remain empty.

Wish what you think is true, but doubt it.

Absolutely, but the ICE cars driving round now have been produced and while they were made polluted, while new cobalt and lithium batteries need a lot of power and disgustingly polluting material in order to be able to power a car and are polluting more than they gain driving around without exhaust pipes (ask Volvo). They make bigger batteries now to get longer range and that make the cars heavier and in order to keep the batteries safe on our not always perfect roads the cells are glued so firm together that it is not worth it retrieving the minerals as it is too energy and cost needing that it is cheaper to buy new minerals, until there are no more.

 

[Las Palmas]

58 minutes ago, ColinBarber said:

Indeed, but it will improve over time as countries switch to more sustainable energy generation and therefore make EVs more friendly.

We all know now that the Paris Agreement was about letting the temperature rise as it liked as long as it was good for economy, while telling the poor fools that the politicians are doing all they can and it is going to cost. Like usual – the poor must pay in order to let the rich get richer and we suckers have to believe what we want, and do what the politicians say.

And all the politicians participating in the meeting have since then made laws that would let all continue as always, while telling us that they do what they can.

Now 8 years later, all of what was promised has been accompliced, and we see it in the weather forecasts daily. Half of Spain is having temperatures above 37 degrees Celsius, forest fires are becoming more and more normal, lakes dry out in several countries, glaciers are melting and rocks fall down making in needed to evacuate little towns.

And you believe that when politicians say the electricity will be made green it actually will be that.

This is close to being so naïve that it could be called something else if that would not be – not really polite.

[dutchie01]

10 hours ago, Las Palmas said:

We all know now that the Paris Agreement was about letting the temperature rise

Now I do know that not everything is understandable by everyone but surely you must be trolling here, got a bag of popcorn and wait for the reactions ?

[Malc1]

On 6/21/2023 at 8:48 AM, Malc1 said:

from little acorns eh !

this thread has at least aired the problems and highlighted some of the benefits of hydrogen power and it's competitiveness in vehicle ( and possibly air ) propulsion and the carbon footprint issues of not just hydrogen but also all else .......  so it has been a useful thread and enlightened these many readers here ....  incongruously too of the detrimentality of EVs and their production methods and running which, had we just accepted what we are being told by Musk and global Govts. that all would be solved by going Ev'wise 🥶

Horses for courses they say, well, the old nag hitching up alongside the erstwhile motor car really wasn't too bad a mode of transport ..  and indeed is often the means to our graves with horse drawn limousines / hearses to finally put us all in our place !

Methinks hydrogen power is here to stay and the roll-out for us all could be sooner than many expect ✌️

Malc

[ColinBarber]

14 hours ago, Las Palmas said:

And you believe that when politicians say the electricity will be made green it actually will be that.

This is close to being so naïve that it could be called something else if that would not be – not really polite.

Ok, you're sailing pretty close with the wind here for a permanent ban from these forums for continuing to breach of our T&Cs.

 

What I believe is that the UK has gone from 2% renewable to 40%+ over the last 30 odd years and that wind and solar farms are continually being brought online and expanded to further move the balance in favour of renewable energy sources. I believe this because they are facts that are proven.

[dutchie01]

Our factory is in the UK and in the past years we have made massive multi million pound investments to meet the Paris agreements, or at least come close. Windmills, Solar farms, raw materials made with mass balancing, using recycled products where we can, reduce waste and so on. I see this throughout our industry and thesame goes for the Automotive world. Suppliers will have to prove they do what is needed with certification etc to continue supply the factories otherwise its out. I am convinced the vast majority of people in one way or the other are thinking and doing good for the environment. Could be solar panels or separating waste, could be choosing an A class fridge or thinking about the most environmental friendly way of transport and yes, i do know people that sold their car use bike and bus now. Each to their own i guess. It is time to move away from our dependancy on oil, a product that brought a lot of good, prosperity and massive economic growth for most countries, enabled mankind to travel the world etc but in thesame time has a massive dark side. From truly terrible conditions and or violence in extracting it from the earth, spills or wars fought about it. The Battery developments is still in early stages and will move away from critical materials, Car companies now invest in mining so they can fully control the operations. The electricity supply will grow with demand ( note not all cars will charge at thesame time!). Hydro is promising but sure has some way to go i really do hope it will be developed further for passenger car use. On a side note i also think the entire automotive landscape will change, not only because China will come in with a massive bang but mainly because the younger generation is not so interested any more in owning a car. For me 45 years ago it meant freedom, they? they already have freedom and are "greener"than us old folk. Anyway here is to the future!

[Las Palmas]

Pamesa Group is the first to use unique hydrogen-based fuel in its production processes

 

 

 By JOHN MAX    https://www.hydrogenfuelnews.com/author/john-2-2-2-2/

The achievement was the result of a partnership with eCombustible Energy.

Pamesa Group and eCombustible Energy partnered to launch the first carbon-free hydrogen-based fuel to be used in commercial industrial operations. According to a recent news release, the fuel, which is completely free of carbon emissions, was used by Pamesa Group in its productions process in place of natural gas, in a world first.

eCombustible is a new carbon-free fuel.

The hydrogen-based fuel is known as eCombustible and is produced by eCombustible Energy. The fuel is generated via an enhanced electrolysis process and with far greater production efficiency compared to any other electrolysis technology.

The fuel is generated using modules. This enables the fuel to be configured according to the specific requirements of each eCombustible client, like Pamesa. Furthermore, this hydrogen-based fuel can be used in existing equipment with very little or no need to modify the existing machinery to accommodate it.

Therefore, since the energy generation process takes place in existing equipment installed in the same plants as the Pamesa production centers, there is no need for fuel transportation or distribution. Due to this fact, the carbon emissions associated with the life cycle of eCombustible is lowered even more compared to traditional fuels.

With its new hydrogen-based fuel, eCombustible is helping hard to decarbonize sectors find a viable solution.

“Our mission is to provide a long-term, cost-effective, carbon-free fuel supply solution to help industries that today rely heavily on fossil fuels and give them energy independence,” said eCombustible Energy CEO, Jorge Arévalo.

 

The CEO added that “Pamesa is leading the way in demonstrating how sectors whose CO2 emissions were economically unfeasible to reduce with current technology can now contribute to a more sustainable world while continuing to grow their businesses.”

Pamesa has achieved a number of key milestones with the support of eCombustible. These include having the first plant of its kind worldwide that can function without reliance on natural gas and having a more efficient solution than current hydrogen alternatives, while remaining 100% carbon-free at a price that is more competitive than natural gas.

“I am proud to announce that, after four years of effort and investment, exclusively private, we are going to be able to produce in our plants without emitting carbon dioxide and without depending on third parties,” said president of Grupo Pamesa, Fernando Roig.

After its initial success with the hydrogen-based fuel, Pamesa intends to implement eCombustible in all its operations.

 

Unfortunately, of the 190 countries that signed the Paris treaty 8 years ago not one of these have fulfilled what they signed. Some have done little, many have done nothing and are more or less status quo, while several are polluting more. Water from underground of Denmark, which is supposed to be clean enough to have in tabs and drinkable is not, and the agriculture still have permission to use poison that will make the situation worse. Pfas (PFPeS, PFDoDA, PFUnDA, PFTrDA, PFHpS, PFDS, PFNS, PFUnS, PFDoS og PFTrS) is a rather dangerous thing and have since May this year come on the list of things that shall be analysed, but luckily most of the places that are delivering water are still not able to analyse for that, so it is safe to drink tab water in Denmark; even more lucky is that it is considered safe to have twice the amount in the water than was permitted 10 years ago. EU to ban all non-essential uses of PFAS: Will the UK be equally ambitious? Actually, it does not matter because PFAS is not - and will not be banned – only non-essential use of it is restricted. And who is to find out what essential use is?

 

Such make it hard to believe anything we are promised from official sites.

[ganzoom]

On 6/21/2023 at 7:20 PM, Las Palmas said:

As soon as the batteries are no longer up to what was promised (7 - 12 years) batteries,

Our EV is 7 years old in 2024 which is next year. At 65k miles there is 5% degredation on the Battery. The suspension parts on the car will need replacing before the Battery.

[ganzoom]

10 hours ago, Malc1 said:

Methinks hydrogen power is here to stay and the roll-out for us all could be sooner than many expect ✌️

Malc

Great to hear but when is it happening? I still haven't found a single hydrogen fuel station near me, but I understand there are over 1000+ around?

The only stuff on the Internet I've found says the number of hydrogen fuel stations in the UK has gone DOWN this year to 5....

English isn't my first language so maybe I've misunderstood what 'soon' means?

[Mr Vlad]

Oh dear. What started out as an interesting thread has gone downhill and I can see it getting blocked.

I'm personally getting peed off with 'evangelists' who basically preach their self obsessed opinions which they believe is gospel truth. Unfortunately there are a few within this thread who do that.

[Shahpor]

4 minutes ago, Mr Vlad said:

Oh dear. What started out as an interesting thread has gone downhill and I can see it getting blocked.

I'm personally getting peed off with 'evangelists' who basically preach their self obsessed opinions which they believe is gospel truth. Unfortunately there are a few within this thread who do that.

Do they also try and add people to their ignore list for no good reason? 🙂

I do agree though in that I think this thread no longer serves any useful purpose, just like the last one that got locked!

[ganzoom]

1 hour ago, Mr Vlad said:

Oh dear. What started out as an interesting thread has gone downhill and I can see it getting blocked.

I'm personally getting peed off with 'evangelists' who basically preach their self obsessed opinions which they believe is gospel truth. Unfortunately there are a few within this thread who do that.

Do you mean the bit about how hydrogen refueling is about to go mass market but the only real life data says the opposite....ie number of hydrogen fuel stations in the UK is going down not up?

It is really confusing because both cannot be true at the same time. Either real life is fiction or fiction is reality?

[Mr Vlad]

Gang. Re the number of hydrogen filling stations. As for cars I personally reckon there's less than 10 in the UK. As for commercial then that's a different kettle of fish. I reckon there's 00's if not a few thousand.

Yes too much fact is fiction and fiction is fact. That's why innocent folk get confused or naffed off.

Oh sorry if you don't understand kettle of fish or naffed. Read story and expletive word. 😁

[ganzoom]

3 hours ago, Mr Vlad said:

Gang. Re the number of hydrogen filling stations. As for cars I personally reckon there's less than 10 in the UK. As for commercial then that's a different kettle of fish. I reckon there's 00's if not a few thousand.

Yes too much fact is fiction and fiction is fact. That's why innocent folk get confused or naffed off.

Oh sorry if you don't understand kettle of fish or naffed. Read story and expletive word. 😁

So there aren't 1000s of hydrogen fuel stations around, and only 5?

[Malc1]

1 hour ago, ganzoom said:

So there aren't 1000s of hydrogen fuel stations around, and only 5?

Gang yep. You can count them on the fingers of your two hands today it seems  ……. Tomorrow you’ll get better use from your toes too hopefully

as I said before    “ from little acorns grow “  😄

Malc 

[Steve_S]

So, let's look at South Korea, a country known to have one of the most ambitious plans with regards hydrogen. According to their government roadmap they aim to have around 450 public hydrogen fuelling stations by 2025 and around 1200 by 2040. Sound impressive? Well, 1200 fuelling stations is around 10-15% of the number of available Gas (petrol/diesel) stations available in South Korea now. So, their "ambitious" plan will take 17 years to reach a point where they can still only provide around 10-15% of the fuelling infrastructure available to ICE drivers today.

Note, that in the meantime the plan in SK is to reach 0.5 Million EV chargers by 2025 with a mix of around 85% to 15% of slow to fast chargers. i.e. over 150 fast chargers and almost 1000 slow chargers per hydrogen station by 2025. They are well on their way to achieving that.

So, the South Korean versions of our hydrogen advocates do at least have some prospect that a hydrogen powered vehicle could make a sensible buying choice in the near future.....depending on where he/she lived of course. The roadmap appears to favour certain areas in SK.

But if you are seriously interested in the question of which will be the dominant drive train technology in the future it is pointless basing that on today's current technology as some sort of benchmark. You need to get your crystal ball out and look about 15 years in the future because it will take at least that amount of time for the hydrogen infrastructure to catch up to a point where it will significantly impact the mass market.  Call it 10 years if you want to be super optimistic. A lot will happen in 10-15 years (a lot is going to happen in the next 5), especially with regards Battery technology.

 

 

 

 

[Las Palmas]

So, it took 30 years to get from 2% to 40% more or less green electricity in UK. How long it will take to get any further is not easy to know, but the 2015 meeting in Paris with lots of signings and all promised something and in the 8 years since that: Like usual - nothing.

Take 40 from 100 and you have 60% dirty electricity and according to the Volvo calculation how long it will take to annul the production of new car with Li-Ion Battery (driving 100K Km on green electricity would be OK) it is not even near that, and most likely not any better than if a reasonably modern already existing ICE engine car had been driven same distance with petrol; using the existing car could even be better for the environment.

What is then the reason to destroy the planet and make the people that are searching for minerals ill?

 

Lithium is typically mined through a process called brine mining, which involves extracting lithium from underground salt water reserves. The risks in polluting local water sources arise here, with examples in Salar de Uyuni and Salar de Atacama. This process involves pumping salt water to the surface, where it is evaporated to remove the lithium and other minerals. Despite being relatively energy-intensive, this remains one of the most cost-effective ways to mine lithium nowadays.  Unfortunately, these toxic metals can contaminate water sources, threatening not only humans but also animal biodiversity.

Unlike Lithium where the supply is plentiful, there is more of an effort to meet the demand logistics for cobalt.  The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) produces 60-70% of the world’s Cobalt output.  However, the conditions of the mines in which Cobalt is produced has generated significant controversy in the media and abroad.  Still, the average, daily $3+ wage for miners is significantly more than the average wage in the country (where 73% of the population live below $1.9 a day).  A main reason why workers will continue to mine in these fields is the above average pay and thus the associated economic incentives resulting from artisanal mines. It is currently estimated that between 140,000-200,000 people work as artisanal miners in the DRC.

Nonetheless, the risks of cobalt mining on the human population in Congo is well documented, where mines are often operated in dangerous and polluted conditions.  The mining and refining processes are often labour-intensive practices and are associated with a variety of health problems as a result of accidents, overexertion, exposure to toxic chemicals and gasses.  On top of all this, violence is common throughout cantered around racism, discrimination, and worker abuse.  The miners, known locally as creseurs, are so economically reliant on this informal economy that these dangerous conditions cannot afford full consideration.

The environmental costs of cobalt mining activities are also substantial. Southern regions of the DRC are not only home to cobalt and copper, but also large amounts of uranium. In mining regions, scientists have made note of high radioactivity levels. In addition, mineral mining, similar to other industrial mining efforts, often produces pollution that leaches into neighbouring rivers and water sources. Dust from pulverised rock is known to cause breathing problems for local communities as well.

 

Tell me honestly: Are the Battery powered cars worth that?

 

 

[First_Lexus]

Interesting that the ‘mood music’ (nothing definite or committed) coming out of Labour is that the ‘…failure of the current Government…’ to provide a consistent nationwide EV charging network may cause a future Labour Government to delay the ban on sales of new petrol and hybrid (but not diesel) vehicles.

It’s no surprise that Labour know that the current policy is unpopular with many potential middle class Labour voters who may switch to them from the Conservatives. Pushing it back by (say) five years and blaming the current Government does seem feasible - and they’re already starting to lay the tentative story to allow that to happen.

The reality is probably that EVs will continue to evolve, hydrogen may or may not become either an alternative or a companion in the long term, and petrol will continue to be available for many years yet. There will need to be a range of options to suit different needs, including the commercial freight sector.

However, as a solution to the climate emergency none of these options are really palatable especially to the developing world. We in the West / First World simply need to drive, fly and transport less while striving towards localism rather than globalism (which obviously won’t happen because of the ‘need’ for continued economic growth, but there you go!).

We’re all doooooomed!

[Las Palmas]

26 minutes ago, Steve_S said:

So, let's look at South Korea, a country known to have one of the most ambitious plans with regards hydrogen. According to their government roadmap they aim to have around 450 public hydrogen fuelling stations by 2025 and around 1200 by 2040. Sound impressive? Well, 1200 fuelling stations is around 10-15% of the number of available Gas (petrol/diesel) stations available in South Korea now. So, their "ambitious" plan will take 17 years to reach a point where they can still only provide around 10-15% of the fuelling infrastructure available to ICE drivers today.

Note, that in the meantime the plan in SK is to reach 0.5 Million EV chargers by 2025 with a mix of around 85% to 15% of slow to fast chargers. i.e. over 150 fast chargers and almost 1000 slow chargers per hydrogen station by 2025. They are well on their way to achieving that.

So, the South Korean versions of our hydrogen advocates do at least have some prospect that a hydrogen powered vehicle could make a sensible buying choice in the near future.....depending on where he/she lived of course. The roadmap appears to favour certain areas in SK.

But if you are seriously interested in the question of which will be the dominant drive train technology in the future it is pointless basing that on today's current technology as some sort of benchmark. You need to get your crystal ball out and look about 15 years in the future because it will take at least that amount of time for the hydrogen infrastructure to catch up to a point where it will significantly impact the mass market.  Call it 10 years if you want to be super optimistic. A lot will happen in 10-15 years (a lot is going to happen in the next 5), especially with regards battery technology.

Exept for your optimism with regard to Battery technology I find your  writing worth reading. But certainly - a lot will happen in 10 - 15 years. The 2 largest companies making batteries for cars are in ? Right: China.

[First_Lexus]

42 minutes ago, Las Palmas said:

The 2 largest companies making batteries for cars are in ? Right: China.

China seems likely to be as South Korea was twenty years ago in terms of automotive development and dominance. The political situation may muddy those waters though, especially regarding Taiwan.

India could be the one to watch. They have so much potential in terms of domestic growth, and that often translates to international growth as seen in China since the 1990s. 

I spent time in China in the late 90s/early 2000s and recently came back from India. I can see similarities, but the democratic process in India makes it far more palatable to the West, and Modi knows that. He’s already distanced himself from Putin for reasons beyond not supporting his actions in Ukraine…with more to come at full G20 in India later this year I’ll wager.

Tata is going big on EVs, and the UK is likely to be a big player in that through JLR, albeit fairly minor in global terms. Based on what I read neither China nor India are really backing hydrogen, and if that continues I can’t see it taking off anywhere, least of all in a niche market such as the UK.

Anyway - and I don’t think I’m alone here - all I want as a motorist is the ability in Winter temperatures to drive for a 300 mile round trip at motorway speeds without having to recharge or refuel. Once an EV can give me that I’ll switch. Having discussed with most of the major EV manufacturers over the last 12 months none can guarantee that at the moment apart from Tesla, and their horrid ‘new money’ image combined with terrible build quality (and if you don’t believe me just look at some used models with mileage on them) means I won’t consider them.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uk-set-win-battle-host-tata-electric-car-battery-plant-bbc-2023-05-24/

[Steve_S]

The first and third largest Battery producers for EVs are indeed currently Chinese (CATL and BYD). Second and fourth are South Korean (LG) and Japanese (Panasonic). CATL and BYD are currently technologically ahead of their competitors because they put more investment in.

There is, however, massive investment now going on the West in this area in an attempt to catchup. In the US it is seen as both strategically important at the government level and economically important to companies like Telsa to localise and vertically integrate production as much as possible.

The West just needs to learn to compete again.

[Linas.P]

On 6/17/2023 at 2:41 PM, dutchie01 said:

I think it is more about the trend Linas. If you look at the biggest market in the world, China with some 27 million cars sold each year the figures speak for themselves. In 2022 one in four cars was BEV or plug in, and in the first months of 2023 this rose to 38%. That combined with an avalanche of new Chinese cars hitting the market that are accepted as superior to western brands has created some real unrest in the automotive world. The Japanese manufacturers all see their Chinese market disappear rapidly with an average decline of over 30%, Toyota outperforming Honda, Nissan, Mitsubishi with minus 14% marketshare. Car development takes some 4 to 8 years and the threshold everybody was aiming for, 2030, now seems outdated. The worry the Shareholders of Toyota have is that the company does not offer anything in the electric markets which as a volume manufacturer could be lethal with the current rapid transition and adaption to electric.

That is glass half-full vs. half empty argument. If BEVs market share is 38% (where in the world? UK, US, EU?) then it means 62% are NOT-BEV (again I do believe worldwide this percentage is significantly higher).

I am not saying that I completely disagree, clearly there is a trend... but again people jump too quickly to the conclusions that if BEV market jumped from 25% to 38% in a year, then next year it will be 51%, and then 64% and so on... Again overlooked fact - 2/3 of BEV buyers are just upgrading old BEV only 1/3 are "converts". Now consider this - we all know that used BEV prices are just fell trough the floor, PX are horrible and many smaller traders don't even take them on. How long 2/3 of the owners will be able to continue replacing BEVs when they have such horrible depreciation? Remember - second hand market adds no value to car manufacturers. Again remember another fact - most of BEV owners are middle-class+, the people who can stomach 50% depreciation on 3 years old car and get another one. In short - I don't believe market expansion for BEV sales is limitless. I am honestly surprised it is more than 10%, nevermind 20%... clearly sometimes I am wrong, if you look for my post 3 years ago I said they will get stuck at 25% and I was clearly wrong. But still assuming opposite - that BEV sales just going to go up exponentially is also wrong. 

Let's not forget trend of converting back to PHEVs and ICE - some people tired BEVs, thought maybe it would work for them, it didn't and they are converting back... or simply because governments are now cutting back on subsidies the BEVs no longer makes sense, because taxpayers no longer paying 35% of the price... anyone remembers free charging for electric cars?! well those times well and truly gone now!

And finally as for Chinese cars and the domestic market - I am yet to see really viable mainstream Chinese car being sold in UK at least, but even in wider Europe they are non existent so far, so I would not make any assumption on how well they will perform here. The chinese internal market was lucrative for automakers for a while, but it was big mistake and I would argue loss in long term. To sell to the market they had to give tech and form partnerships with Chinese companies, then their government stole all the trade secrets and now just within decade are selling cars 90% as good as western imports for cheaper... all based on stolen trade knowledge, patens etc. It is really surprising how people do not learn from their mistakes or "how blind if greed", but if I were on the board of major automaker I would write-off chinese market altogether, not worth doing business in and I would exit it right away, even as government official I would probably limit what company can own and what technology can they transfer to what is openly hostile regime and ideology. Remember - there is no probate industry in china, so any trade with china or any work is a collaboration with communist regime. I think after conflict in Ukraine this is becoming more appreciated and trade will slow down with China as well. So again I would not count too much on chinese goods or domestic market.

[Malc1]

and simply everyone, lest one forgets ..  most people in the UK have zero ability to recharge a Battery at Home .  lots of terraced homes and apartments with no ability to develop the Battery charging infrastructure to existing homes .........  these people, like me, will always need to refill my car at a proper, quick, simple and easy refuelling place .  like a petrol station, where it takes but a few minutes .  and where the Hydrogen pumps will be 

This thread is styled  ..  HYDROGEN FUEL ROLLOUT ,,,,,,,,,,,, 

..  and I reckon that I'll be availing myself of the usual refuelling mode at a petrol station selling Hydrogen gas, a bit like diesel and LPG say !

Roll On Hydrogen Fuel asap ......... they did say it's not that huge a challenge to change an existing combustion engine to hydrogen power didn't they somewhere in this looooong dialogue

AND after all, there's great chunks of our world where one needs a petrol or diesel mode to actually get around and where EVs won't " go "  ...........  and a refill with Hydrogen power will 

Malc

 

 

[Las Palmas]

2 hours ago, First_Lexus said:

China seems likely to be as South Korea was twenty years ago in terms of automotive development and dominance. The political situation may muddy those waters though, especially regarding Taiwan.

India could be the one to watch. They have so much potential in terms of domestic growth, and that often translates to international growth as seen in China since the 1990s. 

I spent time in China in the late 90s/early 2000s and recently came back from India. I can see similarities, but the democratic process in India makes it far more palatable to the West, and Modi knows that. He’s already distanced himself from Putin for reasons beyond not supporting his actions in Ukraine…with more to come at full G20 in India later this year I’ll wager.

Tata is going big on EVs, and the UK is likely to be a big player in that through JLR, albeit fairly minor in global terms. Based on what I read neither China nor India are really backing hydrogen, and if that continues I can’t see it taking off anywhere, least of all in a niche market such as the UK.

Anyway - and I don’t think I’m alone here - all I want as a motorist is the ability in Winter temperatures to drive for a 300 mile round trip at motorway speeds without having to recharge or refuel. Once an EV can give me that I’ll switch. Having discussed with most of the major EV manufacturers over the last 12 months none can guarantee that at the moment apart from Tesla, and their horrid ‘new money’ image combined with terrible build quality (and if you don’t believe me just look at some used models with mileage on them) means I won’t consider them.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/uk-set-win-battle-host-tata-electric-car-battery-plant-bbc-2023-05-24/

Problem with winter driving longer distance in cold climate in Battery powered car is that you will need nice warm clothes as heating from Battery will very soon make the Battery lose power.