Surely this can't be true?

[Mincey]

I would have thought that used EVs would be flying out of dealerships, what with EVs being the answer to everything and all that.....? https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&f=23&t=2020026

[Las Palmas]

Why can it not be true?

They are in business to make money. If they do not think they can sell what they are offered, they are not interested in buying.

[Huwge]

46 minutes ago, Las Palmas said:

Why can it not be true?

They are in business to make money. If they do not think they can sell what they are offered, they are not interested in buying.

 

 

[wharfhouse]

Here's a broader picture of dealers reducing used EV stock: https://www.am-online.com/news/used-cars/2023/01/31/festive-rush-to-stock-ice-used-cars-saw-25-uplift-in-auction-sales

[PaulWhitt20]

We ordered an EV in April 2022 (Corsa-E) before the electric prices went up and the EV bubble burst. We a picking it up today, but not the one we ordered, which we are told is no longer available in that spec/colour. Looking on AutoTrader there are lots of new and used EV for sale, and they don't seem to be shifting. The one we are buying is from another dealer from the same network who had one in stock of the right colour but a lesser (older) spec. I noticed this on AT before Christmas and it was still there months later until the dealer woke up and tried to source a car for us and found it. I also have my eye on a used UX300e that has been on AT for months. So I can see why dealers are reluctant to take EVs in part ex. 

This is where the guaranteed future value in 3 years time may mean you walk away and buy the same car cheaper as used prices have dropped to less than the guaranteed future value.

 

[Mr Vlad]

Oh Paul for heaven's sake get the Lexus UXe if you really need an EV. Don't get a vauxhall. Awful awful awful.

[PaulWhitt20]

The corsa is to replace my wife's Jazz. I will defiantly be staying with Lexus for my cars.

[Mr Vlad]

Great posts James and Phil. Blimey. Who'd have thought it? One supposes with Mr Tesla dropping the price on his vehicles by quite a margin that the market on EV'S would suffer in the way it seems to be heading. 

[Las Palmas]

15 minutes ago, PaulWhitt20 said:

The corsa is to replace my wife's Jazz. I will defiantly be staying with Lexus for my cars.

Jazz is one of my favourite kinds of music and Honda is one of the best brands in the auto industry, so going to Adam Opel is a step down the ladder.

When I was a kid Opel or Olympia Rekord was one of the most solid cars that were in a price range that the medium wealthy could pay, but I am not sure if they have kept that reliability of the very simple car; it was the first car I tried to drive on a field when I was hardly big enough to reach the pedals and look out of the window at the same time.

[dutchie01]

I do remember the Opel Rekord. Rearwheel drive skinny tyres no traction control of course. I once lost it entering the motorway!  

 

BTW what you see happening with the BEV market are the laws of supply and demand.

[Mr Vlad]

1 hour ago, dutchie01 said:

 

 

BTW what you see happening with the BEV market are the laws of supply and demand.

Not really. The research and production of things like Sodium Ion batteries and green hydrogen are on the up and up and the demand for EV'S is slowing down because of the recent negatively showing towards them.

[Shahpor]

The real takeaway from this is that Tesla managed to drop the price of the Model Y by £7k and is still making a profit on each one! The knock on effect on EV values is the market correcting itself I think now that Tesla has some proper competition. 

[Linas.P]

I guess partially proves my theory that EV market is saturated. It was quite clear for some time, EVangelists kept saying "look the sales are X% up year on year", but what they missed is that despite sales increasing, most of the buyers were the people who already had EVs and were upgrading or replacing them. I always said that there is upper limit of people who can both afford to own EV, for whom they work, who can charge at home, have it as second or third car and who already have chargers etc. for the rest of the society it does not work and I never believed that EV share in UK will exceed even 20%.

So despite EV sales increasing overall, the rate of conversions was already slowing down for a while (that is people who switching from ICE). And this seems to be exactly the time where it has reached it's peak - electricity price is high, fast chargers even higher, EV subsidies ending, people generally not making big purchases and in the EV niche demand dried-up very quickly. Simply said attracting new buyers became hard this year and existing EV owners probably thought they can extend the use of their exiting car for few more years, that is especially true if they were offered junk values for PX... because let's face it PX mainly benefits the dealers, that is basically a way to upsell the person by supposedly discounting new car for them and dealing with hassle of selling privately, but if they not taking used cars or not offering decent valuation on them, then automatically sales of new cars will suffer. At the same time I understand why they wouldn't want to take used EV if they suspect the prices will go down... truth is that used car sales are exceptionally unprofitable and thin margins activity, that is why they are so cut-throat and penny pinching, I suspect they sometimes even take a loss, but remember they only doing it to make money elsewhere (and that is selling new car)... so if margins are low and they suspect the prices to drop... then they obviously not taking a risk of going into negative equity.

So this is beginning of death spiral (admittedly I hope it is). The reality of EV sales was that they never made economical sense and only worked because of either subsidies, tax discounts or as novelty. Step 1 - subsidies and tax discount ended. Step 2 - manufacturers were making cars in line with projected growth year on year not considering that there is no genuine demand and instead people only buy EVs to save money on government initiatives... no initiatives, no demand and we suddenly have over-supply (and yes - shortage of used cars and over-supply of EVs can co-exist, because what is good if used Tesla is cheap if I can't charge it?!). Step 3 - values of EV drops because of supply and demand, demand cooled, supply was adjusted with hope that demand continues - obvious things happen. Step 4 - dealers don't want to take on stock of EVs which they can't sell, margins are too low to take a risk. Step 5 - No PX (or poor valuation) means people just not going to buy new EVs, especially considering that most of the sales were just conversion from EV to EV... so that has further cooling effect as it disproportionally affects EV buyers... Kind of similar to what happened to diesel sales and PX after "diesel gate".

All in all I see it as positive news - fantasy bubble burst (or hopefully will burst soon), for those who want and need hopefully we could get cheap EVs soon... for the rest maybe if it get's bad enough the government maybe going to lift 2030 target, although they may as well restart the subsidies to kick-start demand again (which is likely and would be worst outcome).

[Mr Vlad]

And breath Linas. That took some reading but that post is full of sence.

[VFR]

It is now starting to be known by those who have been wishing to get a green number plate that it can be (and often is) a real pain on a long trip to get from A to B without a good bit of planning and increasing cost. 

Even worse should you not be able to charge at home as to give yourself a head start so will need to factor that in the day before. Ah! They say the average journey is only around 20-30mls a day so a full charge will last a week for most and for the most part that will most probably be true and would work as long as you can charge at home.

Tesla have their charging network that works / is widespread / has lots of stalls / is a plug and play system , but the charging network for all the others is dire from what I see and read and will only get a lot worse as more cars are bought. 

Only trouble is that a Tesla is not cheap and not a very desirable piece of kit to my eye & limited experience, plus they are uncomfortable regardless of what Sandy Munro claims..

Pushback is coming on this net 0 twaddle IMO..

[Las Palmas]

A good friend of mine who has been in car business all his working life bought a Chinese MG a plug-in hybrid some years ago. Has solar cells and charge home, use the car to drive shopping in nearest towns (live in the country) and told me it is a great car, have absolutely no need for gasoline as range of Battery is more than enough for the 20 km he is driving. Wonder what will happen if gasoline in tank is never used and get very old?

EV cars are great for such use.

He has 2 other cars for longer tours and different transport, one camper for longer tours round in Europe and a big Toyota diesel monster for transporting horses.

[Las Palmas]

Here comes news about car sale in 2022 (and an ad for Toyota):

 

 

Top Hydrogen Car Automaker Knows What Consumers Want

 

Toyota is the top-selling global automaker for the third year in a row.

 

Even in the face of supply chain challenges and weaker global demand, Toyota – the automaker in the lead in the hydrogen car market – has been named the world’s top-selling car company in 2022.

Toyota managed to increase its lead over the second highest-selling automaker, Volkswagen AG.

Clearly, Toyota knows a thing or two about what drivers are looking for in their passenger vehicles. At the same time, this company is also the leading automaker behind hydrogen car development and rollouts worldwide. This suggests that even though H2 has yet to become a category of any real size in passenger vehicles, there remains significant potential for its adoption and growth.

According to Toyota, its group sales – including those of its Hino Motors Ltd and Daihatsu Motor Co subsidiaries – were essentially flat at about 10.5 million units in 2022. That said, Volkswagen saw its sales fall by 7 percent in 2022, reaching 8.3 million units. That represents the lowest delivery level VW has seen in 11 years.

 

Here is the ad for Toyota

The maker of the most popular hydrogen car has held its auto sales crown for three consecutive years.

Toyota has not only been the top auto sales company in three years, but it has also continued to grow its lead over Volkswagen throughout that time. Still, even in its leadership position, this doesn’t make it immune to the concerns threatening all automakers worldwide: weakening global demand.

The demand for new vehicles has been fizzling and the impact combined with rising inflation and a weakening overall economic environment is easy to see in places like Tesla’s falling share prices and the layoffs Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co recently announced.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q5R8Pj7BRPQ

Still, Toyota has stated that despite all those factors, it is still not able to produce vehicles quickly enough to cut down on the delivery times. Customers worldwide are reporting wait times as long as months or even years for certain vehicle models. Moreover, these long wait times aren’t exclusive to models considered more of a niche at the moment such as the Mirai hydrogen car.

[Linas.P]

1 hour ago, VFR said:

It is now starting to be known by those who have been wishing to get a green number plate that it can be (and often is) a real pain on a long trip to get from A to B without a good bit of planning and increasing cost. 

Even worse should you not be able to charge at home as to give yourself a head start so will need to factor that in the day before. Ah! They say the average journey is only around 20-30mls a day so a full charge will last a week for most and for the most part that will most probably be true and would work as long as you can charge at home.

Tesla have their charging network that works / is widespread / has lots of stalls / is a plug and play system , but the charging network for all the others is dire from what I see and read and will only get a lot worse as more cars are bought. 

Only trouble is that a Tesla is not cheap and not a very desirable piece of kit to my eye & limited experience, plus they are uncomfortable regardless of what Sandy Munro claims..

Pushback is coming on this net 0 twaddle IMO..

Averaging of everything is TRUE, but it just doesn't work in practice. If we would be able to average everything like that then there would never be traffic jams and there would be no morning rush hour... because you know on average 10,000 cars drives on this road per hour throughout the year. The only problem is that Monday-Friday 8-10AM 100,000 cars drives on the same road, yet 2-4AM only 50 drives on the same road and on Sunday and Saturday it is maybe 1,000 cars per hour. Same with solar power - it is great tech passively making electricity out of "nothing"... 1.25Kw on average from 16 panels... the only problem is that when you come back home 9PM the produce exactly 0Kw... And this can be said pretty much on everything - one may be spending on average £10 per day on their bank card, but think of how restrictive it would be if it would be capped at £10per day! Sure that is still £3650 per year, but try paying for groceries on Saturday and it turns out you can't. So yes it works on average journey, and yes it works if we average charging needed for these cars as if they charging 24/7/365 consistently at the same rate... Long story short - averages just don't work in real-life and when it comes to BEVs they don't work for passenger cars in particular. They would be great for example to be used as postal service and delivery vehicles (last mile delivery) where every single day the route is 120miles consistently, they work okey as taxis in the city centre where distances are short and average drives does 120-200miles, they work ok as secondary cars... basically anything where range is consistently the same every day, or where range does not matter. The reality for normal cars for personal use is that their mileage is just not consistent and that is where justified range anxiety comes in.

Say for example I do 12k miles a year... that turns out to be on average 32 miles per day... so in theory Lexus UX300e should be plenty for me... the only problem is that this statistic is completely misleading because I only drive for like 120 day a year! So that is already borderline on the limit (average of 100miles per day whereas UX real life range is ~160 miles), but that still doesn't even look in the sorts of driving I am doing... because sure many trips will be 10, 15, 20 miles to the shops or to nearby park etc. But for example in the summer every other weekend I go to the nearest beach and that is 120 miles each way and ~50 miles in the location. I haven't seen ANY charging point in Frinton and as far as I know the closest one is like 20 miles away from the beach... Then I go to airport on average like 10 times a year... 60-80 miles each way... In fact with 165miles range I doubt I could do a journey to Luton and that is supposedly "London airport". Well and then comes my 2-3 times per year trip to France, or Scotland, or Cornwall... and that can easily be 1000-3000 miles per week... besides being able to drive at 120MPH in Europe is big deal. And suddenly electric car dream falls to the ground... 

Honestly... if I had space for 3 cars and could charge EV at home... I would have 3 cars and once of them would be EV... but how many people realistically have space for 3 cars? Forget London... even across UK that is rare. And that is why I don't think people realise of how small is the market for EVs in reality.

[talaipwros]

22 minutes ago, Linas.P said:

if I had space for 3 cars and could charge EV at home... I would have 3 cars and once of them would be EV...

Correct, that's why I am so happy with my EV.

Indeed EV is very good but only under certain conditions

[VFR]

31 minutes ago, Linas.P said:

Averaging of everything is TRUE, but it just doesn't work in practice. If we would be able to average everything like that then there would never be traffic jams and there would be no morning rush hour... because you know on average 10,000 cars drives on this road per hour throughout the year. The only problem is that Monday-Friday 8-10AM 100,000 cars drives on the same road, yet 2-4AM only 50 drives on the same road and on Sunday and Saturday it is maybe 1,000 cars per hour. Same with solar power - it is great tech passively making electricity out of "nothing"... 1.25Kw on average from 16 panels... the only problem is that when you come back home 9PM the produce exactly 0Kw... And this can be said pretty much on everything - one may be spending on average £10 per day on their bank card, but think of how restrictive it would be if it would be capped at £10per day! Sure that is still £3650 per year, but try paying for groceries on Saturday and it turns out you can't. So yes it works on average journey, and yes it works if we average charging needed for these cars as if they charging 24/7/365 consistently at the same rate... Long story short - averages just don't work in real-life and when it comes to BEVs they don't work for passenger cars in particular. They would be great for example to be used as postal service and delivery vehicles (last mile delivery) where every single day the route is 120miles consistently, they work okey as taxis in the city centre where distances are short and average drives does 120-200miles, they work ok as secondary cars... basically anything where range is consistently the same every day, or where range does not matter. The reality for normal cars for personal use is that their mileage is just not consistent and that is where justified range anxiety comes in.

Say for example I do 12k miles a year... that turns out to be on average 32 miles per day... so in theory Lexus UX300e should be plenty for me... the only problem is that this statistic is completely misleading because I only drive for like 120 day a year! So that is already borderline on the limit (average of 100miles per day whereas UX real life range is ~160 miles), but that still doesn't even look in the sorts of driving I am doing... because sure many trips will be 10, 15, 20 miles to the shops or to nearby park etc. But for example in the summer every other weekend I go to the nearest beach and that is 120 miles each way and ~50 miles in the location. I haven't seen ANY charging point in Frinton and as far as I know the closest one is like 20 miles away from the beach... Then I go to airport on average like 10 times a year... 60-80 miles each way... In fact with 165miles range I doubt I could do a journey to Luton and that is supposedly "London airport". Well and then comes my 2-3 times per year trip to France, or Scotland, or Cornwall... and that can easily be 1000-3000 miles per week... besides being able to drive at 120MPH in Europe is big deal. And suddenly electric car dream falls to the ground... 

Honestly... if I had space for 3 cars and could charge EV at home... I would have 3 cars and once of them would be EV... but how many people realistically have space for 3 cars? Forget London... even across UK that is rare. And that is why I don't think people realise of how small is the market for EVs in reality.

So to cut a “very” long story short you agree with what I said. 

[Linas.P]

49 minutes ago, VFR said:

So to cut a “very” long story short you agree with what I said. 

I never said I disagree. And very long story was generally to the topic and not really a response. I just picked-up on "averaged" logic which I see very often in these discussions and which is very flawed.

[Mr Vlad]

Blimey Linas you take things quite literally lol. But yes averaging things out doesn't work on everything. It could also be very misleading. 

Has anyone seen the thread on Synthetic fuel? Very interesting and pleasing. 

[Las Palmas]

China leads big in important race causing great concern among Europe's leaders

 

China is the world's largest market for electric cars, and Chinese brands such as Nio from Shanghai are in full swing with their international expansion

 

Security of supply is at the top of the agenda in Europe, but more than 90 percent of the new production capacity is in China

 

When EU leaders meet in Brussels these days, security of supply is at the top of the agenda.

It is because the war in Ukraine has shown how risky it is to depend on oil and gas from Russia.

According to the EU Commission, the answer is a new green industrial plan that will promote the green transition and ensure that sustainable companies can grow quickly. But despite the ambitious plans in both the EU and the US, China, which already produces 84% of the world's solar cells, will continue to have a heavy influence on the majority of the supply chains for the green transition in the coming years.

This is shown by a new report from the research company Bloomberg NEF, which maps all the world's investments in green transition.

Record in 2022

The good news is that the total number of investments in, among other things, solar, wind, biofuel, batteries and electric cars broke a new record in 2022.

But half of the investments took place in China, and if you look at new production capacity, Chinese companies accounted for 91%.

 

The dependence on China arouses great concern among European decision-makers, because it is feared that in the event of a conflict China will be able to use its market position as a strategic weapon. Last week it emerged that the Chinese government plans to introduce restrictions on the export of advanced Chinese technology used to manufacture solar cells. The official explanation is that China wants to protect its position of strength in the area, but it is also seen as a response to US restrictions, which prevent Chinese companies from buying computer chips in the US.

Depending on China China accounts for 97% of the world's total production of silicon wafers, which form the core of solar cells, and this means that American and European companies are deeply dependent on buying them in China if they want to build up their own production. According to Kaare Sandholt, who is an international advisor for the Chinese Energy Research Institute in Beijing, China's massive investments are not only due to the fact that China will maintain its position as the "world's factory" in the field. It is also about the fact that China is the world's largest market for, among other things, wind turbines, solar cells and electric cars.

[Mr Vlad]

Can't remember what the old TV series was but in it a young Burt Quok playing a drug baron said China will rule the world. Think it was an episode of The Professionals. Mmmmmmm one wonders if those words will come to fruition. 

[Illogan]

11 minutes ago, Mr Vlad said:

Can't remember what the old TV series was but in it a young Burt Quok playing a drug baron said China will rule the world. Think it was an episode of The Professionals. Mmmmmmm one wonders if those words will come to fruition. 

They're already leaders in the very high (65k ft +) International balloon race!