LC500 V8s back to mid £40k by end of year?

[Linas.P]

48 minutes ago, eightk said:

I just don’t think the BMW is a competitor to the LC. I had a Maserati Grancabrio before the LC - its a very similar design in a lot of ways except build quality. The LC hands down beats the Italian in almost every way except perhaps noise. Astons, Jag F Type, 911 are all similar, maybe the Merc coupes, the SL etc - the BMW just isn’t. It’s a 4 series after too many pies.

I also have a Kia Stinger - it’s as quick as the LC, has just as much standard equipment, it’s rear wheel drive and has a 7 year warranty and a better back seat and bigger boot. And the seat bolster doesn’t go squishy after ten minutes. In every objective way except noise it either matches or beats the Lexus for about a third the price. But I wouldn’t call it a competitor to the LC, same as the BMW isn’t. Just my opinion.

It would be interesting to know what exactly excludes BMW 8 series from being competitor to LC? Let's start from similarities 2+2 GT Coupe, 2 doors, costs ~£80k, V8 or thereabouts performance vice, Luxury brand, large car (near 2 tons), sub 5s acceleration, premium materials inside, comparatively exclusive, halo-model for each respective brand. When it comes to MB it is actually little bit harder as both E53/63 and S-Coupe S500/S65 can be considered competitors, except E-Class is slightly smaller/cheaper and S-Class is slightly larger/more expensive. Aston Martin DB11 is competitor as well. Maserati Grand Turismo is direct competitor indeed, it literally has GT in the name and has things that makes great GT. Technically Bentley Continental should be considered competitor of LC, but the matter of fact is just that GT-Coupes segment is quite diverse. So my question is - what are the differences in terms of market segment between BMW 8-Series and LC apart of subjective dislike of the looks? I can't find any, they occupy exactly the same market.

However, I can quite easily say what is NOT in GT segment - 911 and F-Type are "Sports Cars", so despite being upmarket they actually compete with RC-F, BMW M4 etc. MB SL is roadster, so that is different segment although I guess it does compete with LC Cabrio in practice, despite technically being different market. The Stinger is an exec saloon, so it is roughly in the market with BMW M5/M4GC and similar cars.

[DtoTheM]

55 minutes ago, Linas.P said:

One thing that surely makes them exclusive is the original selling price. £82k for 840s and 100k for M850s means not many were sold (at least by BMW standards), not many sold means you are unlikely to find yourself in the place where have M3 and you park next to another two M3s... sure you may park next to other BMWs and indeed one may mistake M850 for M4 at a glance... but you know for sure people will take a second glance... because "ohhh wait that is odd M... it isn't M4?!". And by the way - since when being mistaken for M4 is offensive? So I would not call them "odd ball", but they are certainly quite rare and exclusive. And I am not saying Lexus LC is any less exclusive... is just again all comes down to many things. If we just want most exclusive "current gen" car for under £100k, then Lexus LC500h is probably the car to go for... but if we want all-rounder, easy to live with, comfortable to sit 4 and still have enough space for all the things you need for weekend... and still be exclusive I think BMW 8-series or S-Class Coupe actually are better choice and for less money.

And just to be clear I am not slagging of LC500, but everything has price and all the cars are compromise, it just happens that LC500 cost more yet you as well have to compromise on more things. That is nice way of saying it is currently overpriced for what it offers. Likewise I am not criticising people who bought LC500, both used and new. You know somebody bought that S-Class Coupe for £135k+ and now it's £50k (I am thankful for a charitable person who absorbed that ridiculous depreciation), somebody may have bought LC500 I was looking at in 2020 for £42k and now made their money back and made £10k profit on top. But honestly at the prices as they are now I just cannot see how LC500 represents "good value".

Interesting way to look at quality by the comparing the bolsters. I am not saying it is wrong, but to be honest I have never even considered to check how the bolsters look on the car, certainly not as priority... usually my worries starts from engine, gearbox, maybe suspension, exterior cosmetics (many cars are crashed and poorly repaired, even small bumps/scratches and poor repair job can cause issues in long-run) and only then I look into interior. On all expensive and serious issues Lexus fairs better - they are not known to have any suspension issues... Yet BMW springs have tendency to collapse, ball-joins requires frequent replacements etc. Engines and gearboxes... on Lexus side usually bulletproof.. BMWs - plastic parts in the engine, poor gaskets weeping oil everywhere (at least it's good rust prevention). I must be very clear again - up-to 5 years old it probably does not matter, but Lexus is usually solid buy (dependant on price) even when it has 80k, 100k or 120k miles, BMWs are not. So if we look at cars with 25k miles this just becomes irrelevant, but when we look at long term reliability at 100k+ Lexus is better.

Now talking about bolsters specifically I think it is compromise... Either you have hard bolsters which stays firm, but rubs the leather through, like was the case on my 40k miles BMW 328xi and 55k miles Lexus RC, or you have softer bolster which colipases, but the leather stays intact. The IS250 SE-L had softer bolsters and I indeed driver's right side bolster had collapsed on all of them. I as well had IS 250 F-Sport and that had firmer bolsters... I assume it would have worn trough, but I only had it up to 20k miles so never experienced any issues. If you ask me personally - I would rather have soft bolster which collapses, than hard bolster which wears the leather trough. Collapsed bolster is way cheaper and easier to fix (you probably can even do it yourself), and can be done in the way that it is impossible to tell and looks like new. Worn trough leather is much harder to fix, more expensive, requires specialist skill and not always works out perfect. 

Either way - I never associated car quality with how it's bolsters wears out, but I guess everyone to their own. Perhaps BMW is better in that respect. 

I'm not a mechanic so staring at the engine bay or hoping to uncover a serious fault seems silly. These are all £100k cars at a maximum of 5 years old with full dealer history sold buy a dealership or specialist independent. I'm not sure quite what chance there is that the engine has gone missing. If the paperwork is in order and it drives fine then you've a warranty to cover the rest. 

What I am is someone who builds things and knows how they fit together. I don't know personally what tricks there are to stiffen a bolster but that foam is under the leather, you'd need to remove the seat, the cover and some other parts, I'm not sure that's a do it yourself task. Most leather repair for worn leather is done in situ, it's cheaper and easier. I'm also not sure you should be able to park two cars together with a 5 year age gap and have a hard time spotting the newest car. 

[eightk]

I suppose I’m coming at it from a personal angle - I just don’t like modern BMWs because they all look roughly the same and the cooking models mostly look a bit Halfords.. plus having had an E91 and E46 Alpina and seen my local specialists working on and swearing at more modern BMWs I have doubts about longevity. The 8 series N63 engine isn’t known for its reliability - I did genuinely consider the 8 series at one point.
Yes Bentley Conti is another in the same class but that’s more the S class coupe end than 911. I do think the LC kind of straddles the Bentley/Merc/BMW GT and 911/Aston/Jag sports car quite well. It can certainly be chucked around far more confidently than the Grancabrio I had - it’s noisy F type fun when you want then a shortened LS limo when you back off and stick it in Comfort. 
One thing the Bentley and LC have in common is a peerless build quality, at least in terms of touch points, interior, fit and finish. Lexus went nuts on the design and it shows - the alloy strut towers, the smallest LED headlights ever made, the rear ‘infinity’ lights, the chrome roof strips representing Samurai swords… it’s an event to sit in and to look at it. The BMW is cheap and has many driving modes and settings and buttons and 37 different option packs to try and identify when you’re buying used… and you’re still sat behind most of a very familiar dashboard. They could have amazed with an i8 or Z8 replacement but they just took a 4 series and ran it through the copier on +20%. 

[eightk]

9 hours ago, Shahpor said:

A fellow Stinger owner?  Small world 🙂

A competitor to the LC it most certainly is not!

Ha, no it’s not but it’s sort of the same thing - a bit different, very capable, a great car that nobody buys because it’s got the ‘wrong’ badge. I’ve done 12,000 miles in my 2019 Stinger and it’s been faultless, fast and fun. Oh, except one horn has stopped working. Waiting on a warranty replacement part - the horn sounds like Noddy and Big Ears at the moment.

[DtoTheM]

The private red and tan was previously listed for sale at the same price (51k) 2 years ago... no idea if it was sold for that but bonkers, 2 years of ownership, 12k miles added and for sale at the same price. Who is going to pay these prices?

Out of interest how do people feel the hybrid affects the V8 prices? feels like the hybrid is where the V8 should be, but the V8 has to cost more than the hybrid, it's the one people want and if the hybrid was less than it is now it would be stupidly cheap. None of the alternatives we talk about have a hybrid version in their model range. I do wonder if that fact causes a slight bubble as well.

[eightk]

The market is still skewed from covid and semiconductor shortages but I think LC prices are softening - they have stayed almost static as far as I can tell for 3 years but the hybrids do seem cheaper and take longer to sell if they’re higher miles, wrong colour scheme etc. Supply and demand, or the Lexus dealers inflating prices? Local main dealer had a grey over red 2017 V8 that ended up selling around ten grand less than when first advertised, so cars do find their place in the market. Sticking registrations into webuyanycar is worth a go - it gives you some idea of what bottom trade price would be, I doubt it’d work when negotiating with a dealer though. Don’t try Webuyanycar if you own a Maserati as it’ll make you cry.

[eightk]

We bought a Tesla in 2020, put 20,000 miles on it and got more back two years later so don’t blame the red 51k LC owner - he’s almost the cheapest on the market!

[DtoTheM]

Looks like we lost 2 from autotrader today, the newly added red with gold wheels in cambridge and another I can't recall. The red was 60k I think, not exactly lowering the bar, I assume whoever bought it paid the listed price

[eightk]

Gold wheels is still on Lexuses site. I’d bet the dealers have done those wheels to avoid a proper refurb job. Not my cup of tea. The private sale red over tan with 43k miles looks ok at 51, only a grand more than the yellow sticky 80k one.

[Casa1862]

Isn’t the M850i about 1 sec quicker to 62? 3.7 vs 4.7. I’ve got the figures from autotrader but if accurate that’s a significant difference, the video’s I’ve seen, the BMW gets the power down much better. With it being significantly cheaper, full merino leather, way better infotainment system. I’ve looked at both and think the BMW gives better value, I can’t get around the alcantara seats on most LC’s and those stupid stalks for the drive modes, they just look odd sticking out of dash like horns.

I like the LC but it would need to come down a fair bit for me to be interested, yes lovely car but not a second hand buy for me, the BMW in the right colour and wheels does look much better in the flesh.

[DtoTheM]

10 minutes ago, Casa1862 said:

Isn’t the M850i about 1 sec quicker to 62? 3.7 vs 4.7. I’ve got the figures from autotrader but if accurate that’s a significant difference, the video’s I’ve seen, the BMW gets the power down much better. With it being significantly cheaper, full merino leather, way better infotainment system. I’ve looked at both and think the BMW gives better value, I can’t get around the alcantara seats on most LC’s and those stupid stalks for the drive modes, they just look odd sticking out of dash like horns.

I like the LC but it would need to come down a fair bit for me to be interested, yes lovely car but not a second hand buy for me, the BMW in the right colour and wheels does look much better in the flesh.

The 850 is definitely faster but if you've driven both then the cliche about the LC is true it's not about the numbers. I've only test driven a few but there's clearly more emotion in the Lexus than the BMW which ends up feeling quite generic in many ways. The BMW is clearly better value from a price Vs features ticked POV I think it comes down to more about how you'd like those features ticked. Remember a GTR is faster than many supercars, cheaper too!

[Casa1862]

I agree, it’s not all about the speed but it does matter in this type of car, id expect better than 4.7 secs though, I’ve just sold my Volvo S60 T8 polestar and that was 4.4, obviously LC is totally different class.

it’s the cost really, at 5 years old cars begin to feel their age, difficult to part with £50k plus for something built in 2017, I’m edging to a newer BMW for the same cost, feels fresher and the 850 gives a kick in back at almost any speed. Used 2019 LC’s are priced about the same as M8’s now, I don’t think the LC is a match for the M8 in any way apart from warranty!!

[Dave79]

22 hours ago, Casa1862 said:

I don’t think the LC is a match for the M8 in any way apart from warranty!!

I know I'm biased but numbers aside, I can't think of a single meaningful way that the BMW is better. The LC is much better looking, better sounding, will be more reliable, and the LC will hold its value much better. If you're talking about the M850i rather than the full fat M8, that thing depreciates so fast you'll get a nosebleed. 3 years old, 13k miles, and a ~50%/£50k haircut. I reckon it's a long way from being done setting fire to your money if you buy it, 2-3 years it'll probably be £30k. Sod that!

I guess the BMW might be better if you want straight line bragging rights and the "right" badge to impress people in a pub. Haven't driven one but plenty of reviews have said that from inside even the proper M8 is just like any other BMW, and from the outside it looks like a flattened 4 series.

 

At these prices you're buying with your heart rather than your head of course, whether you buy the LC or the BMW, and the BMW just doesn't seem special enough to me. The LC obviously did 😁 If the BMW appeals to your heart then go for it.

[DtoTheM]

2 hours ago, Dave79 said:

I know I'm biased but numbers aside, I can't think of a single meaningful way that the BMW is better. The LC is much better looking, better sounding, will be more reliable, and the LC will hold its value much better. If you're talking about the M850i rather than the full fat M8, that thing depreciates so fast you'll get a nosebleed. 3 years old, 13k miles, and a ~50%/£50k haircut. I reckon it's a long way from being done setting fire to your money if you buy it, 2-3 years it'll probably be £30k. Sod that!

 

Not so sure, curves tail off, the 850 has already taken it's biggest hit it's half price, the LC which is a slightly older car hasn't. so in absolute terms say the 850 lost another 50% in 3 years you've lost 25k to depreciation, the Lexus is going to have a similar loss, even with s softer curve the higher price is going to cost you the same in money lost terms. Ultimately all that matters is what you lose during ownership. You're looking at ~60k for a LC500 with 20,000 miles. If it lost the same 25K as the 850 it would be 35k to the 850's 25K so that's a 10K gap but at that point your looking at that being a huge % difference between the cars. I don't think at this point you can make a clear argument that the LC is going to result in less of a financial loss. It'll be fairly even

[Dave79]

42 minutes ago, DtoTheM said:

Not so sure, curves tail off, the 850 has already taken it's biggest hit it's half price, the LC which is a slightly older car hasn't. so in absolute terms say the 850 lost another 50% in 3 years you've lost 25k to depreciation, the Lexus is going to have a similar loss, even with s softer curve the higher price is going to cost you the same in money lost terms. Ultimately all that matters is what you lose during ownership. You're looking at ~60k for a LC500 with 20,000 miles. If it lost the same 25K as the 850 it would be 35k to the 850's 25K so that's a 10K gap but at that point your looking at that being a huge % difference between the cars. I don't think at this point you can make a clear argument that the LC is going to result in less of a financial loss. It'll be fairly even

I don't agree with your logic. Why would a 3 year old BMW be closer to the bottom of its depreciation curve than an 5 year old LC? This LC with the less desirable hybrid, dodgy black wheels, an extra 2 years and 25k on the clock is up for nearly the same price as that M850i.

 

Big, expensive BMW GTs tend to have fairly horrific depreciation, especially faux-M cars like the M850i. Anything that's shed £50k in 3 years without racking up too many miles is losing value at a rate of knots. Even the older, high mile LCs are still around the £50k mark - and they're over 5 years old now.

Supply/demand probably works in the LC's favour too. BMW have already shifted more of the M850i alone than Lexus have all variants of the LC, and the M850i has the proper M8 overshadowing it for desirability. (If you want to laugh at depreciation, the cheapest M8 on Pistonheads is £71k at 3 years old - list price on those is nudging £140k!)

 

Your money's going to be much safer in a new LC than a new M850i, and like-for-like used (age/mileage) you'll probably lose less on the LC, albeit that you'll spend more to get into one. 

[DtoTheM]

44 minutes ago, Dave79 said:

I don't agree with your logic. Why would a 3 year old BMW be closer to the bottom of its depreciation curve than an 5 year old LC? This LC with the less desirable hybrid, dodgy black wheels, an extra 2 years and 25k on the clock is up for nearly the same price as that M850i.

 

Big, expensive BMW GTs tend to have fairly horrific depreciation, especially faux-M cars like the M850i. Anything that's shed £50k in 3 years without racking up too many miles is losing value at a rate of knots. Even the older, high mile LCs are still around the £50k mark - and they're over 5 years old now.

Supply/demand probably works in the LC's favour too. BMW have already shifted more of the M850i alone than Lexus have all variants of the LC, and the M850i has the proper M8 overshadowing it for desirability. (If you want to laugh at depreciation, the cheapest M8 on Pistonheads is £71k at 3 years old - list price on those is nudging £140k!)

 

Your money's going to be much safer in a new LC than a new M850i, and like-for-like used (age/mileage) you'll probably lose less on the LC, albeit that you'll spend more to get into one. 

Were not talking about new cars though, were talking about used. You've got to not look at how far it's fallen but how far off the ground it is. 

[eightk]

None of these cars make any rational sense. 

Heart over head. Question is, is your heart bothered about the 0-60 or about how the car actually makes you feel? Do you look back in a car park as you walk away? Do random people talk to you about it? Do you get James May’s fizz?
Look at the LCs history and how it came into being. Watch the designers and engineers being interviewed on YouTube. Watch the YouTube reviews. It’s universally loved, yet nobody buys one. Really odd.

[DtoTheM]

43 minutes ago, eightk said:

None of these cars make any rational sense. 

Heart over head. Question is, is your heart bothered about the 0-60 or about how the car actually makes you feel? Do you look back in a car park as you walk away? Do random people talk to you about it? Do you get James May’s fizz?
Look at the LCs history and how it came into being. Watch the designers and engineers being interviewed on YouTube. Watch the YouTube reviews. It’s universally loved, yet nobody buys one. Really odd.

Sadly while enthusiasts love the fact high performance japanese cars have unique models the general public wants the slightly better version of what they already have. Like phones, just get the next Iphone or galaxy or whatever it's a known quality the buttons are in the same place, the last one was good why risk something different. Very dull.

More people talk to me about my 350z than anything else mind so theres a bar 😛 by far the cheapest car now as well! 

[DtoTheM]

Here we go, a silver 2017 with under 30k on the clock has popped up for 47K. This is more like it, base trim it looks like but this shows a promising trend.

[eightk]

Cheap! It’s the standard model so no alcantara, sports seats, carbon cills etc and no LSD, rear wheel steer or sport plus pop up spoiler but it’s got both the HUD and ML options (ML badge is visible in between rear seats) and the big plus is the glass roof which makes a big difference to the airiness inside.

Standard model is giving it a disservice - it’s still got every bit of kit fitted standard that you’d be paying the Germans for as options - radar cruise, lane keep assist, blind spot stuff, heated wheel and heated cooled seats etc. 

[Dave79]

14 hours ago, DtoTheM said:

Were not talking about new cars though, were talking about used. You've got to not look at how far it's fallen but how far off the ground it is. 

My post was mostly about used cars! £50k is still a long way off the ground based on the values that big BMW GTs - especially ones that aren't M cars (and the M850i is not) - usually fall to, and the BMW is currently depreciating much faster than the LC.

 

That 3 year old M850i is £20k less than a similar 3 year old Approved Used V8 LC despite starting at the same price, and costs the same as a 5 year old LC with similar miles-per-year. If depreciation is a curve, "it's lost a ton of value at 3 years old" means it's more likely to keep doing so, not less likely. Cars don't rapidly lose value for 3 years and then suddenly stop because they've hit the floor, the depreciation rate will reduce as they approach it. So a 3 year old M850i that's lost £40k+ has depreciated at a higher rate than a 5 year old LC that's lost the same, and is likely to continue doing so.

There are also more reasons for the M850i to keep depreciating than the LC: over-supply, a proper M version above it, and higher running costs/worse reliability/worse warranty.

[DtoTheM]

1 hour ago, Dave79 said:

My post was mostly about used cars! £50k is still a long way off the ground based on the values that big BMW GTs - especially ones that aren't M cars (and the M850i is not) - usually fall to, and the BMW is currently depreciating much faster than the LC.

 

That 3 year old M850i is £20k less than a similar 3 year old Approved Used V8 LC despite starting at the same price, and costs the same as a 5 year old LC with similar miles-per-year. If depreciation is a curve, "it's lost a ton of value at 3 years old" means it's more likely to keep doing so, not less likely. Cars don't rapidly lose value for 3 years and then suddenly stop because they've hit the floor, the depreciation rate will reduce as they approach it. So a 3 year old M850i that's lost £40k+ has depreciated at a higher rate than a 5 year old LC that's lost the same, and is likely to continue doing so.

There are also more reasons for the M850i to keep depreciating than the LC: over-supply, a proper M version above it, and higher running costs/worse reliability/worse warranty.

I disagree so I guess that's that, the floor is much more important than the ceiling here.

[Dave79]

3 hours ago, DtoTheM said:

I disagree so I guess that's that, the floor is much more important than the ceiling here.

I never mentioned the ceiling, I've specifically discussed depreciation rates and those suggest a lower floor for the BMW, given that over 3 years the LC is depreciating much more slowly. The rate of depreciation reduces as you approach the floor, which strongly suggests that the floor for the LC is higher than that of the M850i.

It'd be nice to understand the basis on which you disagree.

[Flytvr]

On 5/13/2022 at 12:59 PM, Flytvr said:

What do you reckon - will we see LC500s being sold in the mid 40s by the end of the year?

OMG. I hate being almost right. 4 months out, but look - 

 

 

[Brian R]

4 hours ago, Flytvr said:

OMG. I hate being almost right. 4 months out, but look - 

 

 

Guess it's going to be the end of 2023 and not 2022. Had to happen sometime 🙂