Are we likely to see a hydrogen IS300?

[Mincey]

Is it too soon.....? 😉

[Linas.P]

Answer - no... we won't see hydrogen IS. I am 99.99% sure about it. IS as a badge is dead. 

If there is going to be hydrogen car it most likely going to be LS first (Toyota Mirai shares same platform), the other option would be to badge Mirai as ES or new dedicated Lexus model (like HS), because Mirai arguably doesn't really meet requirements for performance and Luxury of LS. Badging it ES has it's own issues, because ES is FWD car built on inferior platform to Mirai and having 2 fundamentally different cars badged as ES would be confusing at very least - one would be FWD hybrid based on TNGA-K and another RWD car based hydrogen car on bigger TNGA-L.

Probably more logical would be to revive GS badge or even better HS... which was dedicated hybrid vehicle in the days before hybrid ES. Further HS badge kind of suites the purpose very well... I believe it suppose to mean hybrid sedan/saloon, but it can be easily mean hydrogen sedan/saloon. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lexus_HS

[DBIZO]

The big problem with hydrogen is hydrogen itself - production, distribution and storage. There is a many ways of producing hydrogen, which will dictate its green credentials. Today, most of it is labeled as grey - produced from natural gas using water steam. Your emissions footprint will depend on your energy mix for creating steam, plus the CO2 released into the environment as a result. If you add carbon capture, costly, and then use low-carbon energy (nuclear, wind, solar, hydro, geothermal), then it's getting favourable. But then comes the hard part of storing and transporting, for which there is not a scaled infrastructure today. Lexus could certainly build a hydrogen car using fuel cells, or could invest in developing hydrogen piston engines for cars (major challenges are power density of displacement compared to petrol/diesel and high temperatures). It would cost a zillion, but that's not the problem, shockingly many people got money for a £100k car. The real issue is hydrogen infrastructure. Unless Toyota is applying its weight to push that (say partnering with Shell to add hydrogen pumps etc) it's not going to happen any time soon. All is not lost though, commercial and industrial vehicles, also stationary generators, are targets for hydrogen, simply because Li-ion batteries are not viable for cost, weight, or safety. 

[Linas.P]

8 minutes ago, DBIZO said:

The big problem with hydrogen is hydrogen itself - production, distribution and storage. There is a many ways of producing hydrogen, which will dictate its green credentials. Today, most of it is labeled as grey - produced from natural gas using water steam. Your emissions footprint will depend on your energy mix for creating steam, plus the CO2 released into the environment as a result. If you add carbon capture, costly, and then use low-carbon energy (nuclear, wind, solar, hydro, geothermal), then it's getting favourable. But then comes the hard part of storing and transporting, for which there is not a scaled infrastructure today. 

But isn't that exactly same issues as BEV cars? Production of electricity is not an issue per say, but distribution is an issue and storage is basically impossible. Same comes to "green credentials" of BEV - if electricity is generated in coal power plants it is considered that BEV is worse than ICE. How green is electricity depends on how it is generated and luckily for us in Europe our energy mix makes BEVs about 30% greener than ICE cars - but the challenge itself is the same. 

Transporting hydrogen is similar to transporting electricity in terms of how big of a challenge it is. However, hydrogen is very easy to store compared to electricity, which is practically impossible to store efficiently and in large quantities. This is particularly favourable for hydrogen, because you can simply keep it in the tank for long periods of time and use it when you need it. You can't do that with electricity - you have to use it when it is generated and you can't save some for later. Yes there are hydro-accumulation plants, but they are massively inefficient. As result as of today we waste about 48% of electricity ever generated.

So the only rear issue with hydrogen vehicles over BEVs is lack of actual fuel stations and that is the only part where hydrogen is really behind. 

[DBIZO]

6 hours ago, Linas.P said:

But isn't that exactly same issues as BEV cars? Production of electricity is not an issue per say, but distribution is an issue and storage is basically impossible. Same comes to "green credentials" of BEV - if electricity is generated in coal power plants it is considered that BEV is worse than ICE. How green is electricity depends on how it is generated and luckily for us in Europe our energy mix makes BEVs about 30% greener than ICE cars - but the challenge itself is the same. 

Transporting hydrogen is similar to transporting electricity in terms of how big of a challenge it is. However, hydrogen is very easy to store compared to electricity, which is practically impossible to store efficiently and in large quantities. This is particularly favourable for hydrogen, because you can simply keep it in the tank for long periods of time and use it when you need it. You can't do that with electricity - you have to use it when it is generated and you can't save some for later. Yes there are hydro-accumulation plants, but they are massively inefficient. As result as of today we waste about 48% of electricity ever generated.

So the only rear issue with hydrogen vehicles over BEVs is lack of actual fuel stations and that is the only part where hydrogen is really behind. 

I'm not at all in favour of BEV, in fact I consider BEV massively suboptimal for manufacturing every BEV consumes extreme amount of natural and industrial resource to eliminate a fossil car, and to reduce the car's global emission per mile by about 50-90%, depending on the grid. With the extra carbon footprint of manufacturing, we are basically speeding up climate change to get out of it. It is a very ineffective path indeed, and not very clever. Pushing hybrid powertrains achieve an order of magnitude more carbon curbing per unit of Battery capacity.

Yet BEVs are popular and because of that automotive sector invests tens of billions of dollars in their development. Consequently, the infrastructure is building up quick too, and the electrical grid was already there to power the charging stations. There is simply no comparable hydrogen distribution grid/transport mechanism built up yet. Worse still, there is not enough money flowing into hydrogen power development, including fuel cells and hydrogen piston engines.

All I am observing is that while hydrogen is an exciting option for cars, it doesn't look viable for now. I'm not saying it will not to happen. BEVs might even prove to become unsustainable and unpalatable over the next 20 years for the immense resources their production will consume.

[Linas.P]

Liquid hydrogen can be transported same as any other liquified gas, I agree that in UK we don't have great history even with LPG cars, but many other countries don't have this issue. And I am not saying it is not an issue, I am just saying similar issues exists for BEVs as well - just as you said investment and marketing getting over them . And on top of that I agree that BEVs are at all not universal solution. They work fine on isolated cases replacing most polluting ICEs in city centres for example, but as sole solution for all cars there seems to be too many issues. 

[paulrnx]

On 8/5/2021 at 11:38 AM, Mincey said:

Is it too soon.....? 😉

I think it’s possible. Car Magazine have recently tested the new Mirai and there was enough in the test to make me think it’s a decent car. If it sells in more numbers and the refuelling network improves then why not. Can’t help thinking it would be an ES if they did mind.

[ganzoom]

On 8/5/2021 at 4:22 PM, Linas.P said:

Liquid hydrogen can be transported same as any other liquified gas

What fuel source do you use regularly that is cooled to -250degrees?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_hydrogen

[Linas.P]

1 hour ago, ganzoom said:

What fuel source do you use regularly that is cooled to -250degrees?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_hydrogen

How is your question relevant? -250degrees is temperature at which hydrogen becomes liquid at atmospheric pressure, as far as I know nobody keeps liquified hydrogen at atmospheric pressure. So yes - pressurised containers are needed to keep it liquified... but we have pressurised containers for LPG, helium, nitrogen, oxygen as such that is nothing new. I mean sure - it would be more convenient if don't have to keep it pressurised, but this by no means an issue. 

You saying it as if lithium batteries don't have issues of their own - like spontaneous combustion due to thermal runaway which is nearly impossible to stop with standard firefighting equipment and requires specialised foam. 

[C Mclean]

Humanity will never become pollution free when using carbon based fuels, hydrogen or nuclear. We’ll all just have to go back to using horses and then think of how good your rhubarb and spuds will be by recycling waste product.

[dutchie01]

25 minutes ago, C Mclean said:

Humanity will never become pollution free when using carbon based fuels, hydrogen or nuclear. We’ll all just have to go back to using horses and then think of how good your rhubarb and spuds will be by recycling waste product.

I dont want to know how many horses there were in the 30ś and 40ś before the motorcar took over. Cities were overcrowded for sure with all problems connected to a horse in general like out of control handling, no abs or crumplezone and pretty bad brakes. Biggest downturn however is the never ending pile of manure that, you guessed it, produces methane gas which apparently contributes heavily to the climate crisis. I guess we are doomed!

[Alan305]

My old Corvette was over 400 horse power, just think, replacing one two seater with 400 horses. 

[C Mclean]

1 hour ago, Alan305 said:

My old Corvette was over 400 horse power, just think, replacing one two seater with 400 horses. 

And think of the cost of getting them new shoes, hahaha

[ganzoom]

On 8/5/2021 at 2:59 PM, Linas.P said:

So the only rear issue with hydrogen vehicles over BEVs is lack of actual fuel stations and that is the only part where hydrogen is really behind. 

Meanwhile in the real world over the last few days we've done some 8hrs+ of driving in our EV travelling from the Midlands to Scotland with no issues......well if you don't count closed roads, mild flooding, traffic, rammed services :).

I see EV sales now match that of diesels. If Lexus wants to remain relevant they better come up with something better than the UXe soon.

As much you love hydrogen you know how well a hydrogen IS will sell.

Our EV will be 5 years old next year, and its simply so much better as a family car than our IS300H. That's how far behind Lexus are in EV tech, if you care about Lexus as a brand surviving hydrogen should be last thing you want Lexus to waste time and money on!!

We will be hitting Glencoe in the next few days, cannot wait, whilst our IS300H gathers dust on the driveway........

 

[Linas.P]

9 hours ago, ganzoom said:

Meanwhile in the real world over the last few days we've done some 8hrs+ of driving in our EV travelling from the Midlands to Scotland with no issues......well if you don't count closed roads, mild flooding, traffic, rammed services :).

I see EV sales now match that of diesels. If Lexus wants to remain relevant they better come up with something better than the UXe soon.

As much you love hydrogen you know how well a hydrogen IS will sell.

Our EV will be 5 years old next year, and its simply so much better as a family car than our IS300H. That's how far behind Lexus are in EV tech, if you care about Lexus as a brand surviving hydrogen should be last thing you want Lexus to waste time and money on!!

We will be hitting Glencoe in the next few days, cannot wait, whilst our IS300H gathers dust on the driveway........

Meanwhile I live in the flat without any way of charging the car. 

That hydrogen IS would not sell, that is not Lexus fault, but if I would have a choice between BEV IS and Hydrogen one I am sure which one I would get.

And finally as far as I remember you had something like 25 faults with your amazing Tesla in first 2 years. I have driven my car less times last year than that. Not that is not to say all BEV sucks, but Tesla quality is just atrocious. 

[DBIZO]

8 hours ago, ganzoom said:

Meanwhile in the real world over the last few days we've done some 8hrs+ of driving in our EV travelling from the Midlands to Scotland with no issues......well if you don't count closed roads, mild flooding, traffic, rammed services :).

I see EV sales now match that of diesels. If Lexus wants to remain relevant they better come up with something better than the UXe soon.

As much you love hydrogen you know how well a hydrogen IS will sell.

Our EV will be 5 years old next year, and its simply so much better as a family car than our IS300H. That's how far behind Lexus are in EV tech, if you care about Lexus as a brand surviving hydrogen should be last thing you want Lexus to waste time and money on!!

We will be hitting Glencoe in the next few days, cannot wait, whilst our IS300H gathers dust on the driveway........

 

Really? Are you trolling? I don't even know where to begin. Enjoy your drive. But the idea of comparing THAT to a nice example of a Lexus saloon is absurd. We all know by now how well built they are. Or how reliable, including that door mechanism. The famous Fremont Quality Controls. Not to mention aesthetics, craftmanship, taste. Please. 

Do you realise that you are not driving wherever and whenever you want, but wherever and whenever the car can? You planned that road trip heavily around visiting charging stations. Have you ever looked up petrol stations ahead of a trip in an ICE car?

Just out of interest, I looked at our recent longer trips from Portsmouth (Lizard Point, Liverpool area, Stratford upon Avon day trip, Norfolk, Stansted return) this year to see if it'd have been possible in a 250-mile range EV without major compromises (no major detours, no change to destinations, no major delays due to charging). One out of the 5 would have been the same trip, to Stratford, assuming we could have found a charging station and leave the car there while we walked around for a few hours. EVs are anathema to road trips, where there should be freedom - spontaneity, carelessness.

Then the insanity of making all those batteries to replace a single combustion engine, instead of using a tiny fraction of them in a classical or plugin to make the combustion engine work less, and also less hard - order of magnitude difference in marginal GHG curbing for every kWh of Battery capacity. I'd be willing to bet the GHG balance after manufacturing of that X is still not positive compared to a comparable hybrid, let alone a smaller petrol car.

This whole "EV for all" is unspeakably daft in every respect - personal or environmental.

[Robertdt]

4 hours ago, ganzoom said:

Our EV will be 5 years old next year, and its simply so much better as a family car than our IS300H. That's how far behind Lexus are in EV tech

IS300H isnt an EV though?  Clearly having an EV suits you and thats good, but the reality is it doesnt suit everyone including me. 2 years ago when i decided to buy a brand new car i pondered long and hard over buying an EV and just couldnt pull the pin as deep down it just didnt suit my lifestyle. For example when i travel down to england i tend to drive as far as my bladder will take me, grab a coffee and crack on, this would just not be possible in an EV. If we all magically were gifted an EV tomorrow we would need filling stations the size of retail parks, with us all sat in the biggest costa coffee willing our cars to charge unless they get the 80% charge time down to 5 minutes max. 

Much as it pains me to agree with Linas he does actually speak alot of sense when he steps away from the crack pipe. Long term Hydrogen is a much more viable and sustainable option, were an island with multiple options for creating free electricity which in turn can create hydrogen......

Having lived and worked in Taiwan and Ozz, 2 countries that are pole opposites in regard to size and population density, but what they do have in common is that EV's could never replace IC vehicles given their infrastructure.

EV's here im sure maybe suit the Elitist middle class with their big driveways and double garage with home charge points, but having being brought up in the ghetto in Glasgow with high rise flats and poverty how are they going to charge their cars if we go EV. Not exclusive  to Glasgow im sure but we have these nasty little creatures called Bams and Neds who might get a taste for those lovely fat bright coloured cables running out to cars on the street and start chopping them off for the copper if not just the buzz.

Bob

 

[dutchie01]

I personally do not have the knowledge to judge on this topic but the below article might be interesting?

https://insideevs.com/news/508443/vw-herbert-diess-hydrogen-cars/

 

 

[Linas.P]

8 minutes ago, Robertdt said:

when he steps away from the crack pipe.

I never step away from that - c'mon... 

26 minutes ago, DBIZO said:

Do you realise that you are not driving wherever and whenever you want, but wherever and whenever the car can? You planned that road trip heavily around visiting charging stations. Have you ever looked up petrol stations ahead of a trip in an ICE car?

Just out of interest, I looked up our recent longer trips from Portsmouth (Lizard Point, Liverpool area, Stratford upon Avon day trip, Norfolk, Stansted return) this year to see if it'd have been possible in a 250-mile range EV without major compromises (no major detours, no change to destinations, , no major delays due to charging). One out of the 5 would have been the same trip, to Stratford, assuming we could have found a charging station and leave the car there while we walked around for a few hours. EVs are anathema to road trips, where there should be freedom - spontaneity, carelessness.

This exactly the point - it is easy to enjoy ICE car on road trip when you don't need to worry about fuel. Never in my life I had to think if there will be petrol station around. Sure - few times I made mistake myself driving the car all the way to reserve fuel, then taking detour to get cheapest petrol and finding that petrol station has since be closed or doesn't have petrol. Only even happens in very remote locations, but even then I could find alternative station within 15-20 miles and just paying 3p more for petrol. 

And that what makes the road trip fun - you have fun and then you worry about petrol when it runs out. As result you end-up driving through all sorts of interesting places. In BEV you plan the trip based on charging point, so there could be very little randomness in the route. It is almost like a train, just that you have to drive it yourself and you don't have random people around you. But that said - considering the future of self-driving and ride sharing... it will be exactly like train just on the road 😅

Other thing - I know this not going to be popular opinion, but I don't want to bother about my speed in the car. In ICE car speed is not problem, going faster means you will get 6MPG less and 40miles less range, not a major issue when you can refuel in 2 minutes. On BEV anything past 70MPH is unsustainable, because it just destroys the range and you may not even reach your destination at all if you go faster, or you will be forced to stop every 100miles for hour to recharge - not ideal.

In the end - I am not saying it is impossible, but it is absolutely not comparable. 

[Linas.P]

2 hours ago, dutchie01 said:

I personally do not have the knowledge to judge on this topic but the below article might be interesting?

https://insideevs.com/news/508443/vw-herbert-diess-hydrogen-cars/

Quite a few issues with this article - first of all it is clearly partial, because it is made by site which openly support BEVs. As such I am always very careful with sources which are not independent. 

Secondly, most of the information they are quoting has no sources or those sources are clearly biased. This bias is very clear in the article itself, because VW is 3rd largest BEV maker, this makes Herbert Diess no better than Elon - both of them are personally benefiting from BEVs, so why would they support alternative technology which competes with them. This is same as I would take article about hydrogen commissioned by Toyoda with a pinch of salt. 

Now going into specific claims - they are self-refuting. Stating that simply charging cars with electricity we produce is "obviously better" is clearly ignoring the fact that there are loses all along the line, production, conversion, transmission, charging and using it. In the end of the day we only get like 40% of the electricity we produce to hit the road in BEV. Sure maybe on hydrogen that is only 30%, but the way they word the comparison sounds like we comparing 100% instead of 40% vs 30%. Same argument completely ignores the practical challenges of BEVs i.e. that many people can't charge them at home as facilities does not exist and the time it takes to charge. Basically they ignore everything which is inconvenient to talk about.

Next they point out that fuel main not be as "green" depending of how it is made - clearly the same applies to electricity which is used by BEV. Then they presume that this may prolong life of ICE, which in itself implies that ICEs are the issue, which is not true - issue is fossil fuel, because it releases stored carbon. If we use synthetic fuel then ICEs by themselves are not issue. 

In the end - this article is obvious "hit piece" on hydrogen and all parties in the article are objectively biased, from editorial staff, to the people they quoted in the artical.

[paulrnx]

8 hours ago, ganzoom said:

Meanwhile in the real world over the last few days we've done some 8hrs+ of driving in our EV travelling from the Midlands to Scotland with no issues......well if you don't count closed roads, mild flooding, traffic, rammed services :).

I see EV sales now match that of diesels. If Lexus wants to remain relevant they better come up with something better than the UXe soon.

As much you love hydrogen you know how well a hydrogen IS will sell.

Our EV will be 5 years old next year, and its simply so much better as a family car than our IS300H. That's how far behind Lexus are in EV tech, if you care about Lexus as a brand surviving hydrogen should be last thing you want Lexus to waste time and money on!!

We will be hitting Glencoe in the next few days, cannot wait, whilst our IS300H gathers dust on the driveway........

 

I really couldn’t give a **** what you do and how you do it. Stopped reading all your posts a while ago and then I saw this one which actually looked like it might offer some decent information and insight only to realise it wasn’t. What you will be able to do after your trip is give us an insight into the many and varied charging points. After all you’ll be spending enough time at them.

[paulrnx]

8 hours ago, ganzoom said:

Meanwhile in the real world over the last few days we've done some 8hrs+ of driving in our EV travelling from the Midlands to Scotland with no issues......well if you don't count closed roads, mild flooding, traffic, rammed services :).

I see EV sales now match that of diesels. If Lexus wants to remain relevant they better come up with something better than the UXe soon.

As much you love hydrogen you know how well a hydrogen IS will sell.

Our EV will be 5 years old next year, and its simply so much better as a family car than our IS300H. That's how far behind Lexus are in EV tech, if you care about Lexus as a brand surviving hydrogen should be last thing you want Lexus to waste time and money on!!

We will be hitting Glencoe in the next few days, cannot wait, whilst our IS300H gathers dust on the driveway........

 

I have never take a photo of any of my vehicles in a fuel station. Never. Maybe this is what EV drivers do when they’ve crawled into a charging station having driven the last 50 miles with no heating/aircon and at 45mph just to well make it there. The relief must be so intense that the first thought is to take a photo of the charging station. And lo and behold, it has a roof made of wood. My shed is made from wood and that is also full of sh1te.

[paulrnx]

Read any report about living with an EV and so much of it is about the charging of them. Car Magazine have been running quite a few EVs and their regular reports are full of the trials and tribulations of charging. There is often a cursory bit at the start or end end about how good or bad the car is to drive but you are left with the opinion that it’s really all about the challenges of charging and not much else. Many photos are of the charging stations and arrangements too. Many posts are also made by EV drivers about how easy it is to find charging stations and how painless it is to charge them up. Imagine the past 40 years if the majority of automotive reporting and internet posts were about fuel stations and how easy it was to use them and how many times said driver almost ran out of fuel. Now that would be boring wouldn’t it. And yet this is exactly how it is for EV drivers. How nice for them.

[Linas.P]

6 minutes ago, paulrnx said:

Read any report about living with an EV and so much of it is about the charging of them. Car Magazine have been running quite a few EVs and their regular reports are full of the trials and tribulations of charging. There is often a cursory bit at the start or end end about how good or bad the car is to drive but you are left with the opinion that it’s really all about the challenges of charging and not much else. Many photos are of the charging stations and arrangements too. Many posts are also made by EV drivers about how easy it is to find charging stations and how painless it is to charge them up. Imagine the past 40 years if the majority of automotive reporting and internet posts were about fuel stations and how easy it was to use them and how many times said driver almost ran out of fuel. Now that would be boring wouldn’t it. And yet this is exactly how it is for EV drivers. How nice for them.

Agree - mere fact that they have to labour the point of charging so hard shows, how experience is shaped by said charging. 

One thing I like the most is how they justify issues with charging as "requiring the change of attitude" or "we may need to start thinking about it differently". Sure - everything is personal perspective and literally anything could be justified in such way. One person may say "waiting for 40 minutes in cold and rain until it charges is terrible", but another person could disagree "it was great to have nice tasty pizza with my family whilst the car was charging". Yet if you remove subjective personal experiences and perspective then simple and objective fact is that to refuel ICE car it takes 2 minutes and it could be done at any of over 8000 petrol stations in UK, all of which are conveniently positioned  - compared to limited number of charging points which takes 40-60minutes to charge. Now obviously, you can chose to go and have pizza after 2 minutes refuelling, but you don't have to... so ICE car still gives far more flexibility and are far more practical. 

point is - this whole claim that "charging is non-issue if you have right attitude" is reduction to absurd argument. If we change attitude, we may as well can cycle, take a bus, walk or live without electricity like amish. This is just not objective comparison of pros and cons of technology.  

[paulrnx]

This whole range thing and the impact on remaining charge of going faster reminds me that ICE cars had similar issues.

A member of my family had a rather gorgeous MGB V8 many many years ago. We used to drive round roundabouts and corners, deserted I might add, with me regularly looking where we were going through the passenger side window. He used to drive a sports car in motorsport races in the late 50’s and 60’s and he was a very accomplished driver and way above my skillset it must be said. One day we were out and driving behind a very slow car which he wouldn’t overtake. When asked why, he explained that whilst he knew he was able to - they were quite a fast car in their day - he just wasn’t sure that he could afford to. They weren’t economic at the best of times and pushing it could elicit single digit mpg figures. It always amused me.

But herein lies the dilemma of driving any BEV nowadays. You know you can beat anyone in a game of Top Trumps and you know you can blitz most cars on the road. But you can’t because you are always conserving Battery to make it to the next charging point or simply to reduce range anxiety.