Are we likely to see an all electric IS300?

[doog442]

Germany reckons it will need a 4% increase in their National grid to cope with an estimated 8 million electric vehicles on their roads by 2030.  I guess it goes up incrementally. 

 https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/electric-power-and-natural-gas/our-insights/the-impact-of-electromobility-on-the-german-electric-grid#

They reckon 40% of charging will happen at home (or multi unit homes), 11% at work, 11% at public charging stations and the rest at van / fleet hubs. 

My observations knowing the country quite well are that they currently have twice the generating capacity as the UK from wind turbines as they are sodding everywhere ...that's as an aside. 

Try getting planning permission here. Just for info your house / plug / charging station can draw as much electricity as you need. 

If we follow Germany in the 40% home charge rate then expect overnight charging and economy 7 (remember that) to become the norm, so cheaper charging tariffs.  I mean someone did say we had a load of electric going to waste at night. 

[Linas.P]

1 hour ago, paulrnx said:

I think, judging by the enormous effort that all car makers are now going to, that BEVs are here to stay. We’ll have to make huge investments in our generating capacity and distribution facilities to make it work but I suspect it will happen. Not by 2030 though so I suspect this date might move right a little. I’d like to see an IS BEV, I really would. Hoping to get an extended test in a UX E soon.

I had a story with UXe... when I went for service my courtesy car was UXe and the service manager asked me how far I will go... and I said "don't know maybe 100-150miles at most" (meaning I am not planning to go far). And he was like "ohh... sorry then we need to get you something else, because we arranged you UXe, but it won't make it". 

This just shows how limited are use cases for BEVs at the moment. And to be fair I really wanted to try electric Lexus, just curious... but it wasn't be... 

1 hour ago, ColinBarber said:

They already have. Some of Tesla's vehicle today use iron-phosphate cathodes and are cobalt free.

Johnson Matthey have Nickel cathodes which drastically reduce cobalt.

Lithium mining itself is a big issue, especially on large scale, it was an issue even before BEVs when we only mined for phones and laptops. It is possible to mine it more sustainably, but then our capacity will be limited to like 100k cars a year.

As well this is only one of many issues, the problems were not like "pick one" - they all need to be solved. Solid state batteries for safety, capacity, weight and size... fast charging to remove the need of home charging... etc. Before all of these issue are fixed we have problem. And after that we still need to figure out how to recycle them (structural Battery like Tesla model Y is a crime) etc. So BEV tech is far from ready. 

Whereas hydrogen... we can simply build nuclear plant in the middle of nowhere, just crank it to the max and make hydrogen 24/7 - even sea water works (in fact it is even better). And car technology itself is ready to go and car actually pollute a lot less, because they don't require big Battery. Now I am not saying we should stop BEV development, but we shouldn't ignore everything else.

[Las Palmas]

11 hours ago, Linas.P said:

I had a story with UXe... when I went for service my courtesy car was UXe and the service manager asked me how far I will go... and I said "don't know maybe 100-150miles at most" (meaning I am not planning to go far). And he was like "ohh... sorry then we need to get you something else, because we arranged you UXe, but it won't make it". 

This just shows how limited are use cases for BEVs at the moment. And to be fair I really wanted to try electric Lexus, just curious... but it wasn't be... 

Lithium mining itself is a big issue, especially on large scale, it was an issue even before BEVs when we only mined for phones and laptops. It is possible to mine it more sustainably, but then our capacity will be limited to like 100k cars a year.

As well this is only one of many issues, the problems were not like "pick one" - they all need to be solved. Solid state batteries for safety, capacity, weight and size... fast charging to remove the need of home charging... etc. Before all of these issue are fixed we have problem. And after that we still need to figure out how to recycle them (structural battery like Tesla model Y is a crime) etc. So BEV tech is far from ready. 

Whereas hydrogen... we can simply build nuclear plant in the middle of nowhere, just crank it to the max and make hydrogen 24/7 - even sea water works (in fact it is even better). And car technology itself is ready to go and car actually pollute a lot less, because they don't require big battery. Now I am not saying we should stop BEV development, but we shouldn't ignore everything else.

Except for the nuke I agree.

Continue to destroy the planet the next 10 years to get batteries enough and leave the mess to coming generations.

'Oh, that is our children.

[Malc]

13 hours ago, doog442 said:

Just for info your house / plug / charging station can draw as much electricity as you need. 

this could be a fallacy for the short-term future 

It is probable that with the roll-out of meters the power providers will be in the position of just being able to " cut you off " willy-nilly, individually, household by identified household when usage gets too demanding for them to supply

Malc

[dutchie01]

39 minutes ago, Las Palmas said:

Except for the nuke I agree.

Continue to destroy the planet the next 10 years to get batteries enough and leave the mess to coming generations.

'Oh, that is our children.

John, with all respect and i do support your position but doesnt the CT you drive has a Battery as well?

[Linas.P]

44 minutes ago, dutchie01 said:

John, with all respect and i do support your position but doesnt the CT you drive has a battery as well?

Tiny nickel batter - not at all the same thing. Not comparable at all!  

46 minutes ago, Malc said:

this could be a fallacy for the short-term future 

It is probable that with the roll-out of meters the power providers will be in the position of just being able to " cut you off " willy-nilly, individually, household by identified household when usage gets too demanding for them to supply

 

They quite openly say that - "not everyone will need to charge their car every day". So definitely they will decide when and for how long you could charge the car, provided that you can do it at all. Now from one perspective that is reasonable, maybe not everyone need to charge it every day... but fluctuations in demand will definitely happen! Maybe there will be 3 weeks of no demand, and then suddenly there will be huge demand when weather is nice and everyone going to sea side for which network will not be able to cater. BEV owners will therefore have to "queue" to charge based on when network capacity becomes available. I have highlighted will need, because it will not be you who decide whenever you do or don't need - it will be decided for you. 

Because definitely, there are not enough capacity (network, generation etc) to charge all EVs at the same time, nor some EVs during of peak time. So your energy provider will be interested in you only at the time they have this "waste" extra capacity without consideration if that is actually convenient for you or not. 

[dutchie01]

13 hours ago, doog442 said:

Germany reckons it will need a 4% increase in their National grid to cope with an estimated 8 million electric vehicles on their roads by 2030.  I guess it goes up incrementally. 

 A Dutch company called Allego just floated on the stock exchange and the value was set at 3.1 billion USD. Their business is chargingstations for electric vehicles. In the official documentation they claim that currently there are 3 million electric vehicles in the EU and this will go to 20 million in FOUR years time.

BIG business!

 

[Malc]

32 minutes ago, dutchie01 said:

 

Allego IPO must have been full of amazing hype and maybe the investors believed it all if they really think there's ( build and )  sales capacity in the EU for a 6/7 fold increase in sales in just 4 years ...  seems quite incredible to me

BUT there we are, what would I know or even perceive to be sensible  ....  just hope my Pension Fund hasn't taken a position in this Allego business😵

Malc

[Linas.P]

2 minutes ago, Malc said:

Allego IPO must have been full of amazing hype and maybe the investors believed it all if they really think there's ( build and )  sales capacity in the EU for a 6/7 fold increase in sales in just 4 years ...  seems quite incredible to me

BUT there we are, what would I know or even perceive to be sensible  ....  just hope my Pension Fund hasn't taken a position in this Allego business😵

Same like Tesla stock went 800% up despite it making no sensible investment looking at all company performance metrics. They investing in idea (which is great), but it is not vice investment.

So judging these speculative or idealistic investments is not good measure of how viable or successful the business will be. 

[Malc]

2 minutes ago, Linas.P said:

So judging these speculative or idealistic investments is not good measure of how viable or successful the business will be. 

nor the investment .  especially if it's my own pension fund doing it . aaaggghhh !

Just look at what's happening with the new IPOs in the USA coming out of China and the Chinese Authorities changing the ground rules and stymeying the global investors who have already invested in a BIG Idea that's maybe destined for the scrap heap in short measure as they line up the company bosses for summary execution at some stage down the line .............  

But Allego you say is Dutch and they are renowned for peaceful times ......  hopefully

Malc

[Las Palmas]

3 hours ago, dutchie01 said:

John, with all respect and i do support your position but doesn't the CT you drive has a battery as well?

Absolutely. My wife bought the car. It is a fine car. Love the ML audio and a lot of other things in it. Suspension is far better than in most cars. Sofas are not for me. Would have preferred the same car, engine and all, but without the Battery as it cost as much in weight as it gains in braking, but who am I to tell wife the car is not perfect. So far there are no perfect, but when hydrogen fuel stations become common there will be.

[ganzoom]

So hydrogen is our savour.....

https://www.trucks.com/2016/12/07/nikola-one-hydrogen-electric-semi-truck/

 

......and those who back in only ever tell the truth 🤣

https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/29/22599726/nikola-founder-securities-fraud-charge-milton

[Linas.P]

How one fraudulent company makes idea and feasibility of fuel fraudulent? Seems like you are getting desperate Gang... Besides you don't own Nikola truck so according to your own logic you can't trash it!

Tell me what is fraudulent about Toyota Mirai... maybe I can't see it? Where is a catch? 

[C Mclean]

If we’re all going over to hydrogen and electric power, then seeing as they need electricity to produce the hydrogen we're going to have problems from what they say. According to the esteemed politicians the grid is going to fall flat on its arse. Instead of rushing to upgrade the grid in panic, why not spend the money on the police so they can go after all these cannabis growers who are stealing all the electricity. The scaremongering from the experts say that when everyone plugs in there’s going to be power cuts, but people don’t all plug in at the same time, just as everyone doesn’t turn up at the filling station for petrol at the same time. 

[Linas.P]

36 minutes ago, C Mclean said:

If we’re all going over to hydrogen and electric power, then seeing as they need electricity to produce the hydrogen we're going to have problems from what they say. According to the esteemed politicians the grid is going to fall flat on its arse. Instead of rushing to upgrade the grid in panic, why not spend the money on the police so they can go after all these cannabis growers who are stealing all the electricity. The scaremongering from the experts say that when everyone plugs in there’s going to be power cuts, but people don’t all plug in at the same time, just as everyone doesn’t turn up at the filling station for petrol at the same time. 

Except it takes 2 minutes to refuel and that fuel as well last longer, whereas BEV you may have to charge overnight. Who is there to monitor that every person won't charge at the same time, who is to say who has priority to charge...

Where most of important details are lost are in generalisations - assumption is made that everything will happen on "average", people will charge their cars on "average" etc. So yes based on average power production and transmission capacity and assuming people on average charge their cars every 3 days just for the mileage they do it may work. But in reality there will be no average, instead many peaks and quiet times.

As well don't forget this is not necessary an issue on the national level, but it may be an issue on town by town, or estate by estate basis. The number of people nationally is high enough for likelihood that they will charge every day and all at the same time to be low, so nationally we may have enough capacity... however if you have transmission line for particular town with 2000 homes, the likelihood that 800 of those homes will start charging 6PM on Friday night is high, on top of overall higher demand for electricity, because of heaters, washers, cookers, dryers and everyone being at home with all the lights on, TVs, PCs and so on. 

Obviously, solution would be to have smart meters for car charging, so that national grid can tell the meter when capacity is available. But this another cliché - "we just have smart metres - simple". First of all many people don't have parking spaces at all, never mind smart meters for each space... and in the end... even if they have it,  how good is smart meter for you if you just came back from work at 6PM with nearly flat Battery and you have agreed to come and pick-up say your parents from airport at 4AM in the morning next day, but "smart" meter decides that one of your neighbour car will be charged from 8PM to midnight, another neighbour from midnight to 4AM and you car will be charged from 4AM to 8AM. Doesn't sound like great solution anymore... does it?

[dublet]

I'd like to see a BEV variant of the RC, never mind the IS. Or even a PHEV variant as a stop gap.

[Linas.P]

4 hours ago, dublet said:

I'd like to see a BEV variant of the RC, never mind the IS. Or even a PHEV variant as a stop gap.

I have always argued 300h should have been PHEV (RC/NX/IS), Toyota had that technology in house but decided not to use it in Lexus for some reason.

The argument there is obviously that PHEVs like BMW 330e works slightly differently and they need to be charged via socket for most effective use i.e. charge it at home, drive first 20-30miles on BEV power and then switch to simple petrol power. They don't recharge like Toyota "self-charging hybrid" or they not as effectively and use quite a bit more petrol to recharge. 

This means one need to have a way to charge if they have PHEV, myself I was considering BMW i8 for some time, but I just can't get it charged where I live and that was non-starter. Somehow I feel if Toyota really wanted they could have made their 300h model to take advantage of both technologies. Apparently that is what they will be doing with their new NX (400 or 450h) - basically give slightly bigger Battery which owners will be able to charge from the socket if they wanted and at the same time cars will be quite a bit faster.

The only issue - I feel it is like 10 years later than it would have an impact. By now all the models which would interest me are already discontinued - RC, GS and IS.