Are we likely to see an all electric IS300?

[Fujifan]

The is300h 2016 is the best looking car that Lexus has designed - since then the designers seem to have thrown good design out of the window in favour of some computer-game-related idea of a car.  The current all-electric offering is unbelievably ugly, so is it at all likely that that wiser heads will prevail and we'll have something that looks rather better.   The UX isn't the only example of dreadful design, it applies to the rest of the offering - these blocky front ends are dreadful.

[Las Palmas]

Hope not.

Producing batteries are so harmful that electric cars should be banned.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/06/19/electric-car-revolution-risks-mountain-toxic-battery-waste/

If you want the whole story, ask and I will send it.

[Mincey]

I'd rather have a hydrogen powered IS.

[Linas.P]

I would not be fancy BEV IS either... I am simply not believer in BEV technology and practicality overall e.g. I don't see a way how everyone, myself included, could have sufficient charging capacity etc. What I think would be interesting is properly fast plug-in hybrid IS... somewhere along the lines of BMW 330e (5.5-6.5, 0-60) but ideally with little bit longer Battery range 30-40 miles maybe (BMW has certified 21-22Miles if I am not mistaken) and it would be perfect if hybrid drive would be based on V6 rather than L4. That would take all the advantages of low tax, would be eligible as company car (under 75g Co2) and free access to congestion charge areas, but would have no BEV disadvantages like being stuck in charging station for hours, planning the route around existing charging network and it could be charged reasonably well from 220V socket, which is far easier than finding 2-5kV+ in most places. That is obviously just what I would like to see, not what will happen.

My prediction of what will happen is that Lexus is rumoured to release either BEV or PHEV (or both) saloon almost certainly based on TNGA-K (basically or exactly Lexus ES)... so basically that overly bloaty ugly looking amurican car. If it is going to be PHEV then it will be transversally mounted trashy 4-Pot engine driving front wheels (FF arrangement) and Electric motors driving real wheels making it fake AWD, similar arrangement as NX300h AWD or Volvo S90 T8. Lexus calls this technology DIRECT4 and I am fairly positive their "test mule" is Lexus ES.

So the future of executive saloons in Lexus does not sound great at all, it won't be IS, it will most likely going to be AWD PHEV ES and/or RWD? BEV ES. As well, because Lexus/Toyota are behind in BEV tech, I would suspect specifications will be somewhere around the level of 2nd gen Tesla (basically early days of Model-S), so expect range of around 150-200 miles, but acceleration could be decent 5s. That is unless Toyota strikes deal with Samsung or something like that for solid state batteries and literally jumps over the decade of Battery development... in that case it is anyone's guess what stats will be.

Finally on hydrogen... I am actually surprised that Toyota keeps releasing unsuccessful Mirai models which clearly doesn't generate much interest except of complete nerds. But they don't try to use Lexus brand as a vehicle for Hydrogen marketing. For example Hydrogen would be ideal for "luxury barge" like LS... sure finding refuelling station is a bit difficult, but that is a problem for chauffeur to figure out and then you get 1000 miles range! No fuel stops for days and performance isn't really that important in limousine. So for me it just doesn't make sense that they have wasted TNGA-L for Mirai, but have not thought of having hydrogen version of Lexus LS (which is built on the same platform)?! Remember GS450h - that was first luxury hybrid car, sure it looked weird at the time, but it inevitably shaped Lexus brand and entire industry for last 2 decades. At the time it made sense to put expensive hybrid technology into luxury car where margins are higher. It seems same could be done with hydrogen technology. Surely it is easier to market £100k hydrogen LS, than £100k Toyota!

[Fujifan]

Oh, I agree that hydrogen would be a much better option - but it, too, is not entirely "green", since power is needed to produce hydrogen. Also, there's no infrastructure - only about half-a-dozen refuelling points in the country - there's only one anywhere near Sheffield and that is semi-private - the operator says:"To use one of hour hydrogen stations, you will need to download, complete and return the application form fuel@itm-power.com before you are issued with a fuel card and receive training" The site also says that a security fob is need to gain access.  And only a couple of models to choose from, so the market is pretty well non-existent at present.  I'd certainly go for hydrogen over electric but at present it's pretty well impossible.

[Las Palmas]

19 minutes ago, Fujifan said:

Oh, I agree that hydrogen would be a much better option - but it, too, is not entirely "green", since power is needed to produce hydrogen. Also, there's no infrastructure - only about half-a-dozen refuelling points in the country - there's only one anywhere near Sheffield and that is semi-private - the operator says:"To use one of hour hydrogen stations, you will need to download, complete and return the application form fuel@itm-power.com before you are issued with a fuel card and receive training" The site also says that a security fob is need to gain access.  And only a couple of models to choose from, so the market is pretty well non-existent at present.  I'd certainly go for hydrogen over electric but at present it's pretty well impossible.

There is no infrastructure for electric cars anywhere in the world that is sufficient to the dream stupid politicians have that think all cars can be electric without thinking how impossible the idea is.

Hydrogen can be produced almost green and if we start to think about producing electricity green instead of building more windmills that are leaving so much impossible to reuse waste material it can be made completely green plus the exhaust is putting out water that is almost as clean as rain from not polluted skies.

Infrastructure is easier to make for hydrogen filling (gas stations exist already) plus many of the combustion engines still used today can be modified to be using hydrogen. A hydrogen car can be filled up (just like a petrol or diesel car) faster than a Battery can be charged, and the Battery is being destroyed if charged fast enough to compete.

Plus: Hydrogen is going back to the state it was before made hydrogen (water) so it is wasting and polluting = not at all.

[Linas.P]

Just one thing to consider - in UK we waste like 48% of electricity we produce. The below chart is for all energy, but from memory for electric is slightly lower than total.

This happens because we always have to have some spare capacity, otherwise we will have black-outs, but we can't increase/reduce production fast enough to make sure we produce just enough energy e.g. that is absolutely impossible with solar/wind energy, it is difficult and unpractical to do on hydro power, it is not possible on nuclear, so realistically only fossil fuel stations could be regulated.

Now... indeed hydrogen production is not very green, because it electrolysis uses loads of electricity, but if we would use this spare capacity to produce hydrogen, then we can pretty much tap into free energy which would be otherwise wasted. If we can use this wasted energy to produce hydrogen, then not only the electricity will become cheaper, but hydrogen is as well easier and cheaper to store and transport than electricity in batteries of hydro-accumulative plants (basically they pump the water upstream during times of low demand and release it to generate energy during times of high demand).

In summary - we can make hydrogen quite clean and it is relatively easy to store, transport and refuel.

[rayaans]

3 hours ago, Fujifan said:

The is300h 2016 is the best looking car that Lexus has designed - since then the designers seem to have thrown good design out of the window in favour of some computer-game-related idea of a car.  The current all-electric offering is unbelievably ugly, so is it at all likely that that wiser heads will prevail and we'll have something that looks rather better.   The UX isn't the only example of dreadful design, it applies to the rest of the offering - these blocky front ends are dreadful.

Urm simply your opinion. 

Next gen IS will be electric but I suspect it wont look anything like the older ones

[Linas.P]

32 minutes ago, rayaans said:

Urm simply your opinion. 

Next gen IS will be electric but I suspect it wont look anything like the older ones

As for the looks I agree, the "current" mk3 facelift ("mk3.5-ish") IS is the best look IS in my opinion.

But what makes you think there will be "next gen IS"? I mean I agree there will be "next gen something", but if I would make a bet, I would say it will be ES.

I have a feeling that IS "mk3.5" will be the last IS. What makes me think that way ... IS was a FR configuration car using almost dedicated platform, the key in it getting discontinued is that Toyota discontinued Toyota N platform. So realistically new IS won't be a built on TNGA-K, because it is FF platform and it certainly won't be built on TNGA-L platform to keep it FR, because that is platform on which LS and LC are built, and it is technically more "luxurious" platform (if that could be said) than TNGA-K on which is the model above in the range (ES) is made.

In short - I just could not see Lexus making FF IS on TNGA-K, nor I can see Lexus making FR IS on TNGA-L. It seems that globally ES replaced both GS and IS, and it makes most sense to simply work with that platform. TNGA-K has been designed to support FF hybrids and PHEVs and if they going to make full EV then they will use e-TNGA.

There is "medium sedan" rumoured to be on e-TNGA, but "medium" in this sense I believe would be again ES and not IS.

[CypressPhil]

The next gen IS will not be sold in Europe 😞 which is a shame because it looks really nice. Apparently the price point is too similar to the ES and as sales in Europe are mostly now SUV/Crossovers, they don’t feel it’s justified. It doesn’t look hugely different from the phase 3 version, but has been tweaked just enough to look even better!  The infotainment system has also been upgraded to a touch screen finally. As they’ll be selling it in the US and Oz, I doubt there will be an all electric version. Think it was just hybrid and petrol. I love my IS and am really quite disappointed that we will not be getting the new model. I’ve tried to like the ES, but for me, the IS is a much better looking car. 

[Linas.P]

looking ...and driving.

Perhaps not so much difference between ES300h and IS300h, but IS350 is in another league from ES350.

[Las Palmas]

7 hours ago, Linas.P said:

Just one thing to consider - in UK we waste like 48% of electricity we produce. The below chart is for all energy, but from memory for electric is slightly lower than total.

This happens because we always have to have some spare capacity, otherwise we will have black-outs, but we can't increase/reduce production fast enough to make sure we produce just enough energy e.g. that is absolutely impossible with solar/wind energy, it is difficult and unpractical to do on hydro power, it is not possible on nuclear, so realistically only fossil fuel stations could be regulated.

Now... indeed hydrogen production is not very green, because it electrolysis uses loads of electricity, but if we would use this spare capacity to produce hydrogen, then we can pretty much tap into free energy which would be otherwise wasted. If we can use this wasted energy to produce hydrogen, then not only the electricity will become cheaper, but hydrogen is as well easier and cheaper to store and transport than electricity in batteries of hydro-accumulative plants (basically they pump the water upstream during times of low demand and release it to generate energy during times of high demand).

In summary - we can make hydrogen quite clean and it is relatively easy to store, transport and refuel.

I lived a year in Norway many, many, many years ago. Electricity was free after 19:00 - 05:00 (factories did not need power), we had a big oven that was never turned off, looked a 100 years old, but it probably was not, it was using very little power but was big bulky and probably extremely heavy and built into the ground and the wall behind it. Bread baked in there was fantastic but it took longer to bake than in the modern ovens we have now. I was neither the baker nor the cook. Just lucky.

We use wind and solar energy to make electricity that is called green, we do not use the biggest power that is constant and not fading but utterly reliable: the tide. We can have electricity enough to make whatever we want while investing less.

Hydrogen is easy to produce green, easy to transport, easy and fast to refuel and if spilled it just disappears, not like if we spilled a tanker full of oil or gasoline.

We have been given brain for free, without obligation to use it and that's it.

[ColinBarber]

8 hours ago, Linas.P said:

That would take all the advantages of low tax, would be eligible as company car (under 75g Co2) and free access to congestion charge areas, but would have no BEV disadvantages

Let's say it has Co2 rating of 22 g/km. Your first year tax is £0 but you still pay £145 pa after that first year.

If you have an electric range of 40 miles then you sneak into the 8% BIK bracket. 3 year tax cost for a 40% tax payer on a £50k vehicle would be £ 5,090.

A £ 50k BEV would have a tax charge of £ 1,200 for the 3 years, a monthly saving of £ 108.

 

[Linas.P]

I am sure PHEV would not be as "tax beneficial" as BEV, but the point is that at least I could get it. I simply can't get Lexus hybrids because they were like 141g/km or something along those lines. On to of that BEV tax saving is irrelevant for me, because I literally don't have where to charge it as most of people in London. So all good and dandy that it would be £108/Month cheaper, but it would be at the same time useless. 

[ganzoom]

22 hours ago, Mincey said:

I'd rather have a hydrogen powered IS.

Why? Given you wouldn't be able to fuel it any where versus any EV you can refuel at home, and when the sun is shining for free if you have solar PV.

[ganzoom]

21 hours ago, Las Palmas said:

There is no infrastructure for electric cars anywhere in the world that is sufficient to the dream stupid politicians have that think all cars can be electric without thinking how impossible the idea is.

Maybe we are living on different planets, but I've owned an EV since 2015, and covered nearly 70K miles across the whole of the UK and driven in Europe. 

Do you want to share with everyone how many miles you have driven in hydrogen fuelled cars, and than tell us which one is the 'impossible idea' :).

 

[Linas.P]

3 hours ago, ganzoom said:

Why? Given you wouldn't be able to fuel it any where versus any EV you can refuel at home, and when the sun is shining for free if you have solar PV.

No you can't!.. you just assuming everyone have of street parking with electrical installation capable of charging EV. This is very ignorant considering that majority of the people in UK don't have this.

So for example for me it would be easier to fuel hydrogen car than BEV, because I have hydrogen station 5 miles from where I live. I mean sure 13 stations in UK is far cry from the density in say Germany, or something we could consider sufficient, but don't forget you only need to refuel hydrogen car once in 1000 miles or so. I would be ignorant to say "maybe you are living on different planet" when myself I live 5 miles from hydrogen station, but that is exactly what you do with your "you can charge it at home statement"!

The dwelling type statistics in UK is as follows: Terraced 27.4%, Semi-detached 25.0%, Detached 17.9%, Bungalow 8.8% and Flats 20.9%

I don't have exact stats for off-street parking, but with 82% of population being urban it not going to be great. The only dwelling type which is likely always have off-street parking is Detached, so only 17.9%. This does not mean they have right electrical installation - so maybe only half of detached houses can charge BEV at home. And I will make same assumption for the rest of dwelling types (only half of those who have offstreet parking can charge at home). Following on - almost all terraced houses won't have off-street, so say only 10% can, maybe 25% of semi-detached and bungalows and finally none of the flats... again maybe 10%. If my math and assumption are correct this leaves only 15.6% of household who may be able to charge their cars at home and 84.4% who can't. I would not call it "you can simply charge it at home"... 

[Las Palmas]

Was in a major supermarket with more than 1000 parking spots yesterday.

2 of these were for cars with electric charging.

Different countries, same planet.

Take your car for a tour from Norway to Spain and it will be easy to fill up with diesel, gasoline and rather easy with different kinds of gas. With a car relying on batteries you will have to first find a charger and then have time enough to wait until it is ready to continue.

EV are OK for driving around where you have your own charger and that is it. You have a place to charge it. Lucky you. You are in a minority group. Most people in cities in Europe live in flats where they are lucky if there is a parking space for a car.

You are happy with your car. Good for you. Next car for our family will not have a Battery for propulsion. Will not be a hybrid and absolutely not a fully EV.

I do not blame the politicians for lacking brain and being mislead by lobbyists. They are doing what is best for them, it is up to us to elect some better.

[ColinBarber]

19 minutes ago, Linas.P said:

The only dwelling type which is likely always have off-street parking is Detached, so only 17.9%.

What on earth are you talking about? There are millions of semi-detached and terraced houses with driveways, and flats with off-street dedicated parking spaces that could have charging points installed.

[Linas.P]

Just now, ColinBarber said:

What on earth are you talking about? There are millions of semi-detached and terraced houses with driveways, and flats with off-street dedicated parking spaces that could have charging points installed.

Read my post first...

I said detached homes will always have off-street parking, this isn't strictly true, but there will be very few exceptions. However, I have tried to estimate how many terraced, semi-detached and flats could have parking as well. If you just bother to read then you would know.

Secondly, having off-street parking does not mean you could charge your car there.

Finally, the reality with flats is that not only you may not have charging, you may not have parking space at all! Not sure in what sort of flats you have lived, but in all flats I have ever lived in London parking space number was never higher than 50 spaces per 100 flats, in my current apartment it is 30 per 100 and despite it being technically "off-street" and despite me having my own dedicated parking space I can't charge my car there as freeholder won't give permission for it.

Unless you have some data to prove otherwise... I stick with my conclusion that vast majority of people can't charge EVs at home.

[ColinBarber]

3 minutes ago, Linas.P said:

Unless you have some data to prove otherwise... I stick with my conclusion that vast majority of people can't charge EVs at home.

You can stick to your own deluded conclusions but there has been plenty of research that suggests over 50% of households have access to off-street parking, some putting it as high as 75%, and for those that can only park on-street there are many councils that are starting to provide lamp-post charging points etc.

 

London, and other inner-cities, aren't a valid representation of the country as a whole. 50% of households don't have a car in London so it doesn't really matter if half the flats don't have parking spaces or charging points, and that percentage continues to fall as young adults are less likely to want car ownership than the older generations.

[Linas.P]

your conclusions are no less deluded and could easily be debunked...

If research would be at all accurate, then it would say how many homes exactly have parking, especially off-street. Saying that is something between 50-75% just shows that the research is pile of 💩. Not only that, but if you have ever spent time look at homes to buy or rent (sadly I have recently spent weeks doing it), what you will find is that off-street parking is especially rare.

The councils said they will provide lamp-post charging - that is true. But please enlighten me how many of those have actually been installed so far? I think you will have to agree whatever was done so far is negligible amount... what they have promised to do in the future that is another questions, but we talking here about the present.

You are saying urban areas are "not-valid" representation of country as a whole? I would argue that considering 82% of people live in urban areas and BEV are most beneficial especially in urban areas, this makes your statement which invalid itself.

Again what number of people will own cars in future is just speculation, so there is no point discussing it... but I agree that rates of car ownership in the urban areas are lower... perhaps because people can't find where to park them, never mind to charge them.

[ColinBarber]

43 minutes ago, Linas.P said:

your conclusions are no less deluded and could easily be debunked...

they are not my conclusions, they are results of studies and surveys conducted by professionals and government agencies who have knowledge of the subject and spend time researching, not some individual who have given it 5 minutes thought and thinks his conclusions are more valid than everyone else's.

[bernieeccles]

Lamp post charging? Another red herring, just go and have a look at how many lamp posts exist on your street and see how far apart they are. Now think of all those electric cars parked on the street waiting for a vacant lamp post and the ensuing problems that will occur when said motorists all try to connect their cars to a lamp post when and if it becomes vacant. Who was it that said "I predict a riot"

This whole electric car thing may be doable at the moment when there are so few cars needing to be charged but when there are literally millions needing to be charged?

Also how much generating capacity will be needed for all these cars and what is the lead in time for the construction and completion on multi billion power stations? 10 years, 20 years? Will they be nuclear, if so, get ready to deal with the backlash from the usual group of protesters.

[doog442]

2 hours ago, Las Palmas said:

You are happy with your car. Good for you. Next car for our family will not have a battery for propulsion. Will not be a hybrid and absolutely not a fully EV.

 

I've owned one of those .