My next car..

[Martin J]

..is not exactly top of my list of concerns at the moment.

But lockdown has provided an opportunity to think about what, if anything, should replace my NX in the next couple of years. As a private cash buyer I tend to keep cars for a long-ish time, and for the last year or so I've been convinced that my next car really should be an EV with a range of at least 400km (since i have a regular family 330km trip). And I'd been very close to buying a Tesla Model 3 before lockdown.  Since then, I've been reflecting on what I value in car ownership. Reliability, build quality and ease of ownership rate very highly for me, and on the very rare occasions when the NX has needed any attention it's been a delightfully straightforward and comfortable experience. None of these three areas are ones where Tesla currently score very highly, and buying a Model 3 still seems like a lottery in terms of build quality from my researches.  This is an oft-told story, and I know that things are improving. But I don't have confidence about what a 6-year-old Model 3 will look and feel like.

Another oft-told story is Toyota's reluctance to get into Battery EVs, having bet the farm on fuel cells. I fear that the next NX will simply be based closely on the newish RAV4, and it seems pretty clear that it will therefore include a plug-in hybrid. But I'd expect more than that from a new generation of NX. I'd expect an NX450e.  A Tesla with Lexus build quality and ownership experience; or a midsize Lexus with Model 3-beating range and technology would be a fine thing, but neither appears close.

I'm starting to think that I'll still be driving my 2015 NX in 2025 (and in fairness it'll probably still be faultlessly reliable, and as edgy in design terms as the new cars of 2025).

[royoftherovers]

Keep what you have Martin.Drive it into the ground and watch the mugs all around you.

[JeffL]

2 hours ago, Don C said:

What does that mean?

 

[ColinBarber]

On 5/14/2020 at 8:59 PM, Martin J said:

I fear that the next NX will simply be based closely on the newish RAV4, and it seems pretty clear that it will therefore include a plug-in hybrid. But I'd expect more than that from a new generation of NX. I'd expect an NX450e.  A Tesla with Lexus build quality and ownership experience; or a midsize Lexus with Model 3-beating range and technology would be a fine thing, but neither appears close.

The new NX WILL be close to the RAV4, in the same way the UX is close to the C-HR and the CT was close to the Auris. That is no bad thing as the RAV has much better engine/hybrid system compared to the current NX and the plug-in variant, due to be released before the end of the year, looks very interesting. 

I really hope there isn't a NX450e though. EVs are best when they are designed ground up as an EV, not converted from an internal combustion or hybrid designed vehicle.

[Martin J]

15 hours ago, ColinBarber said:

The new NX WILL be close to the RAV4, in the same way the UX is close to the C-HR and the CT was close to the Auris. That is no bad thing as the RAV has much better engine/hybrid system compared to the current NX and the plug-in variant, due to be released before the end of the year, looks very interesting. 

I really hope there isn't a NX450e though. EVs are best when they are designed ground up as an EV, not converted from an internal combustion or hybrid designed vehicle.

I entirely agree with Colin about the best EVs being designed from the ground up. Indeed I'd hoped that the next NX might be just that, perhaps using the recently announced e-TNGA architecture.  EVs ought to be a perfect fit with the Lexus values of silent, comfortable driving, but it seems to be taking them *forever* given the head start Toyota had with hybrids.

On John's comment about "mugs", I thought he was referring to the idea, expressed in Harry's Youtube video, that we change our cars far too often given how durable they've become with regular maintenance.  I don't entirely agree with Harry on EVs - he doesn't take account of the carbon footprint of refining and distributing fossil fuels - but on this I think he has a point. 

If the 2nd generation NX is indeed based on the "conventional" TNGA RAV4 platform, it probably won't represent enough of an advance to be worth changing my car for, and I'll hang on until Lexus have something to compete with the Model 3/Y.

[royoftherovers]

5 minutes ago, Martin J said:

I entirely agree with Colin about the best EVs being designed from the ground up. Indeed I'd hoped that the next NX might be just that, perhaps using the recently announced e-TNGA architecture.  EVs ought to be a perfect fit with the Lexus values of silent, comfortable driving, but it seems to be taking them *forever* given the head start Toyota had with hybrids.

On John's comment about "mugs", I thought he was referring to the idea, expressed in Harry's Youtube video, that we change our cars far too often given how durable they've become with regular maintenance.  I don't entirely agree with Harry on EVs - he doesn't take account of the carbon footprint of refining and distributing fossil fuels - but on this I think he has a point. 

If the 2nd generation NX is indeed based on the "conventional" TNGA RAV4 platform, it probably won't represent enough of an advance to be worth changing my car for, and I'll hang on until Lexus have something to compete with the Model 3/Y.

You are spot on Martin. Had the person (Don C ) who made the comment watched and understood the video he need not have asked the question.Thanks.

[ColinBarber]

50 minutes ago, Don C said:

I was talking to a salesman in a Lexus Centre and he was adamant that there will not be a new NX.  Might be some powertrain revisions, that’s all according to him. 

Never believe a salesman 🙂

Toyota have already registered trademarks for different powertrains, and they have also recently announced they will start to build the NX in Canada as well as Japan - they won't do that on an ageing design the will start to have dwindling sales. The plant will also make the RAV4, so will probably share the manufacturing line, with another line for the RX which is also made there.

[LexusIS300h]

This is an interesting subject and one I had also been giving some thought to as well. I have had the view of electric vehicles that the range had to be 400 miles (not Km’s) and then it made sense for me and would get rid of range anxiety. As of this year, the chances are that I will be fully retired, with COVID putting paid to many interim possibilities for me. Therefore a daily commute isn’t something to look at any more. What is likely to be more interesting are longer trips and this reinforces my view of a 400 mile range.

The only cars that gets close right now are the higher capacity Battery Tesla’s and I am with the OP on iffy quality of those cars. A future NX will also likely be a new RAV 4 engine and perhaps a plug in and again those don’t set me on fire wanting the next model. 
Out of curiosity I had a look at the Peugeot 3008 and it is an intriguing suv. Very sexy set up, but the hybrid models are expensive and not proven like Toyota or Lexus, so maybe not reliable.

My conclusion is that the wheels I would want are likely about 4 to 5 years away, by which time I might be more interested in mobility scooters than SUV’s 😂. This thought LED me to the realisation that my best driving days are behind me, great electric cars are likely to be around in the 2030’s and if I get that far, I probably would be banned from driving anyway. So I had an off the wall thought... why not go and get a used Diesel SUV and accept that I don’t really care about the depreciation, cost of diesel or the effect on the planet for the years I have left? ... and if I did get an SUV diesel, then which one? Well I came up with the Porsche Macan 3.0d and from what I have read about it and other reviewers comments it seems like the dogs wotsits...maybe I should celebrate my 70th with one of these?? A used one, about 3 years old should just about do it, comparable price to an NX.

Any thoughts on that?

[royoftherovers]

52 minutes ago, LexusIS300h said:

This is an interesting subject and one I had also been giving some thought to as well. I have had the view of electric vehicles that the range had to be 400 miles (not Km’s) and then it made sense for me and would get rid of range anxiety. As of this year, the chances are that I will be fully retired, with COVID putting paid to many interim possibilities for me. Therefore a daily commute isn’t something to look at any more. What is likely to be more interesting are longer trips and this reinforces my view of a 400 mile range.

The only cars that gets close right now are the higher capacity battery Tesla’s and I am with the OP on iffy quality of those cars. A future NX will also likely be a new RAV 4 engine and perhaps a plug in and again those don’t set me on fire wanting the next model. 
Out of curiosity I had a look at the Peugeot 3008 and it is an intriguing suv. Very sexy set up, but the hybrid models are expensive and not proven like Toyota or Lexus, so maybe not reliable.

My conclusion is that the wheels I would want are likely about 4 to 5 years away, by which time I might be more interested in mobility scooters than SUV’s 😂. This thought led me to the realisation that my best driving days are behind me, great electric cars are likely to be around in the 2030’s and if I get that far, I probably would be banned from driving anyway. So I had an off the wall thought... why not go and get a used Diesel SUV and accept that I don’t really care about the depreciation, cost of diesel or the effect on the planet for the years I have left? ... and if I did get an SUV diesel, then which one? Well I came up with the Porsche Macan 3.0d and from what I have read about it and other reviewers comments it seems like the dogs wotsits...maybe I should celebrate my 70th with one of these?? A used one, about 3 years old should just about do it, comparable price to an NX.

Any thoughts on that?

I think if you plough that particular furrow David, then by the time you are 71 you will be happily esconsed in an RX450H.

Whatever floats your boat, though !

By the time I reached the age to which you aspire, I had had my fill of German unreliability, German Dealerships and astronomical German repair costs.

Stop reading the glossy magazine and join  the relevant forums to discover what owners think about their German cars. 

[LexusIS300h]

17 minutes ago, royoftherovers said:

I think if you plough that particular furrow David, then by the time you are 71 you will be happily esconsed in an RX450H.

Whatever floats your boat, though !

By the time I reached the age to which you aspire, I had had my fill of German unreliability, German Dealerships and astronomical German repair costs.

Stop reading the glossy magazine and join  the relevant forums to discover what owners think about their German cars. 

Must be the impetuousness of youth sprouting up 🤣😂😅