How bad will it be . . . .

[RgrWynne]

1 hour ago, royoftherovers said:

I like Spanish Brandy too Roger, but Spanish Whiskey at 14 euros for 1.5 lites takes some beating my friend.

Soberano at about 12 euros per litre doesn’t break the bank John. 🤗 certainly livens up your coffee a la espaniol 

Are you back in Spain now John?

[royoftherovers]

7 minutes ago, RgrWynne said:

Soberano at about 12 euros per litre doesn’t break the bank John. 🤗 certainly livens up your coffee a la espaniol 

Are you back in Spain now John?

Was due to travel via the Shuttle on Good Friday Roger, but that has had to be cancelled.

It may be that we do not get to the villa this year; we will just have to wait and see.

 I am trying to get into the garden daily and argue with the plants again.

I do enjoy Spanish Brandy and I have 6 bottles of Williams Brandy safely stowed in my garage for future consumption. It is actually called Williams and was spotted by Mrs Roy about 5 years ago.

 

I take it that you are safely back from Oz?

[RgrWynne]

20 minutes ago, royoftherovers said:

Was due to travel via the Shuttle on Good Friday Roger, but that has had to be cancelled.

It may be that we do not get to the villa this year; we will just have to wait and see.

 I am trying to get into the garden daily and argue with the plants again.

I do enjoy Spanish Brandy and I have 6 bottles of Williams Brandy safely stowed in my garage for future consumption. It is actually called Williams and was spotted by Mrs Roy about 5 years ago.

 

I take it that you are safely back from Oz?

Hi John, thankfully got back no probs on Tuesday. I had expected the A380 to be part full, but it was full, and as the stewardess told me all sold at full price. So glad to be back, but having said that, if I had to, I would have enjoyed staying in Perth for longer. The Aussies have now clamped down, with 14 day isolation, and on Wed, Emirates are pulling all their flights. My pal is on the last plane in from Melbourne. I think you are correct we will all be at home this year, and when this corona virus eases we must have a coffee, cheers, Roger ps must try Williams 😜

[royoftherovers]

7 minutes ago, RgrWynne said:

Hi John, thankfully got back no probs on Tuesday. I had expected the A380 to be part full, but it was full, and as the stewardess told me all sold at full price. So glad to be back, but having said that, if I had to, I would have enjoyed staying in Perth for longer. The Aussies have now clamped down, with 14 day isolation, and on Wed, Emirates are pulling all their flights. My pal is on the last plane in from Melbourne. I think you are correct we will all be at home this year, and when this corona virus eases we must have a coffee, cheers, Roger ps must try Williams 😜

Yes, a coffee would be a good idea Roger and unless memory serves me incorrectly, it is your turn to pay !

A pal of mine has just returned (on Friday ) from Sydney to Manchester via Dubai. He was due to cruise (on QM or QE ) from Sydney to Singapore with some American friends, but the cruise was cancelled and he was offered a 6 day cruise to/ from Hobart, which he accepted. He is divorced and so he returned to a cold house and an empty freezer and now he must make his way in what is an increasingly strange UK.

Time for an early night now, so I`ll leave you and wish you and your family a safe haven in the days and probably months to come.

See you on the Forum !

[royoftherovers]

27 minutes ago, Greer said:

Boris locked down the whole country app half hour ago, only those who can prove they are going to work can go anywhere.......that is my understanding currently, 9:10pm Mon 23rd

Your understanding is wrong Alan. You should have watched the Prime Minister make his statement.

You can check out what he said on Google or Youtube or BBC i Player etc.instead of issuing incorrect statements on this Forum.

I am not amused.

[The-Acre]

6 minutes ago, royoftherovers said:

Your understanding is wrong Alan. You should have watched the Prime Minister make his statement.

You can check out what he said on Google or Youtube or BBC i Player etc.instead of issuing incorrect statements on this Forum.

I am not amused.

Well I'm not going to work tomorrow but I am taking supplies to someone 12 miles away!

[royoftherovers]

And if you were in  France or Spain Phil you would have to complete documentation for production to local Police Officers to justify your journey.

I did think that the Prime Minister would introduce that for jorneys in UK,but he might have that up his sleeve for future implementation should hi advices not be followed.

How did you return from Spain last week--car, plane ,ferry ? 

[Malc]

my partners in the NHS and she's just now taking advantage of the local Morrisons offer of NHS only twixt 7 and 8am to get a few bits and pieces on her way to work ................  good 'ol Morrisonns eh !

Malc

[rich1068]

On 3/19/2020 at 5:06 PM, cruisermark said:

I'm optimistic that this virus will be gone in a few weeks and we'll be able to pick up where we left off with hopefully minimal impact.

what do you guys this think? will there be long term effects?

Not a chance. Between 8am and lunchtime I lost roughly £10,000 of work for April. I'll lose more before the week is out. And if I don't stay afloat then people lose their jobs.

Not a good day today.

[BigBoomer]

I'm realistic and I know that this virus will never be gone, but by mid to late summer most of us will have had this variant and recovered.
If we slow it down enough (once the idiots realise that STAY AT HOME means just that) then the NHS will be able to cope with the lower rate of infections, and therefore lower rate of seriously sick people who need ventilators and IV antibiotics, and that means that very few will be killed by it, and by "few" I mean 5,000-20,000 for the UK.

What this whole debacle has made clear is that Boris can't manage his way out of a wet paper bag with a scalpel, and that the UK is populated with a very high proportion of selfish idiots.

As for the effect on the economy and people's livelihoods, most will cope, some will not.
Nobody wants to be in that last group but the alternative is that we carry on as normal and someone that you know or love is killed by the virus.

It's not the first and will not be the last virus to spread like this has. Hopefully next time it will get acted on sooner and people may take it more seriously, but I doubt it.

[Vlady]

22 minutes ago, BigBoomer said:

I'm realistic and I know that this virus will never be gone, but by mid to late summer most of us will have had this variant and recovered.
If we slow it down enough (once the idiots realise that STAY AT HOME means just that) then the NHS will be able to cope with the lower rate of infections, and therefore lower rate of seriously sick people who need ventilators and IV antibiotics, and that means that very few will be killed by it, and by "few" I mean 5,000-20,000 for the UK.

What this whole debacle has made clear is that Boris can't manage his way out of a wet paper bag with a scalpel, and that the UK is populated with a very high proportion of selfish idiots.

As for the effect on the economy and people's livelihoods, most will cope, some will not.
Nobody wants to be in that last group but the alternative is that we carry on as normal and someone that you know or love is killed by the virus.

It's not the first and will not be the last virus to spread like this has. Hopefully next time it will get acted on sooner and people may take it more seriously, but I doubt it.

George, we are staying at home let me say that first.

Pardon me but I do not see how NHS will cope in three weeks or for that matter in 6 weeks with the amount of people that need help and attention. Now UK is in lockdown for 3 weeks and the cases will slow down but will happen after? As far as I know almost everyone will get it (coronathing), UK has 66 million people.

UK is not that bad affected yet (compared to Italy and USA) and NHS already struggles with a few thousands people confirmed, in 3-6 weeks time it will be much more, so do we stay at home until Christmas?

I am not being sarcastic here, I really do not understand and do not see how it will get better in near future while we are at quarantin now!

[Herbie]

A guy in a tractor came along our road earlier, shouting at the top of his voice, "It's the end of the world".

It was Farmer Geddon

[BigBoomer]

1 hour ago, Vlady said:

George, we are staying at home let me say that first.

Pardon me but I do not see how NHS will cope in three weeks or for that matter in 6 weeks with the amount of people that need help and attention. Now UK is in lockdown for 3 weeks and the cases will slow down but will happen after? As far as I know almost everyone will get it (coronathing), UK has 66 million people.

UK is not that bad affected yet (compared to Italy and USA) and NHS already struggles with a few thousands people confirmed, in 3-6 weeks time it will be much more, so do we stay at home until Christmas?

I am not being sarcastic here, I really do not understand and do not see how it will get better in near future while we are at quarantin now!

Not your fault. Too many people (including our government) didn't understand which is why we now have the lock-down.

When you catch Covid you are infectious for up to 7 days before symptoms show. Once you actually fall ill in a healthy person you will have a few days of fever and dry cough and recover. Once fully recovered you are no longer infectious but you can still infect people by grabbing a doorknob that has the virus it on it, and then shaking someones hand who has not yet been infected. For the 10% or so of our population who have underlying lung/heart health issues the fever is dangerous.

Say the NHS has for example 25,000 ventilators so can handle 25,000 bad cases at a time.
That's 25,000 people who would die without those ventilators.Some will die anyway, but most won't.
With social distancing/lock-down we reduce the level of simultaneous infections to the point that under 25,000 are needed at a time.
We also give ourselves time to build new ventilators so that next month we can handle 30,000 simultaneous, and the month after that 50,000, etc.
Why do you think car manufacturers are converting production to Ventilators and F1 teams are assisting with design and prototyping?

That's just one example. Also applies to hospital beds, numbers of doctors/nurses, antibiotics (for secondary infections like Pneumonia) and other stuff.

If we had carried on as normal in 6 weeks the whole of the UK would be infected.
With a death rate of 1% and 66,000,000 people infected we would need 660,000 ventilators and only have maybe 35,000.
That's 625,000 dead people because no ventilators for them. If the death rate reaches Italy levels that's 6,600,000 dead or 1 in 10.

In Italy at the moment 10% of those who catch Covid are dying because they can't cope with the numbers (older population, underfunded healthcare).
That should drop soon as their lock-down starts to take effect.

China coped better because their people are used to doing as they are told and they managed to confine the outbreak and they kept their death rate down to 4% of those infected.
If we can keep our death rate at 1% it'll be a miracle. If we'd started preparing when China announced how bad it was, we probably wouldn't need the lock-down for anywhere near as long.

The scientists also don't know if this is one of those bugs that succumbs to higher levels of ambient UV.
Hopefully as we head into summer the UV will kill off the virus on outdoor surfaces and slow the infection rate.

[007M]

53 minutes ago, BigBoomer said:

The scientists also don't know if this is one of those bugs that succumbs to higher levels of ambient UV.

Hopefully as we head into summer the UV will kill off the virus on outdoor surfaces and slow the infection rate.

With medical and technological advances I think it can be tested in the lab, probably done it already and they know the result. 

 

7 minutes ago, Greer said:

I agree with you, I sometimes wonder if people actually have any news broadcasts on!

Don't believe everything on the news. 

[Guest]

Hope so! They planned it all out at the event 201 table top exercise in Oct19.......

Just in time, phew.



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[jonthetourist]

The best thing I have read on how the future looks is this one. First time I felt I understood the background, the changing response, and what the future looks like.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Jon

[runsgrateasanut]

I couldn't believe it!

Three frontline Nurses describing what conditions are like in Wards to the BBC 6.00am News,  looking as though they had only been provided with one Seat to sit on, rubbing shoulders and the taller guy trying to lean in as the female in the centre spoke to Camera. Literally shoulder to shoulder and only the centre Nurse spoke!

Ruined an important update of the situation but we thank them for all the fantastic work they are doing.  BBC organised the interview, presumably! Shame on BBC. What message did it send?

 

 

 

 

[Malc]

Jon, I like the link .....  isn't hindsight a wonderful thing !

14 hours ago, BigBoomer said:

but you can still infect people by grabbing a doorknob that has the virus it on it

In olden times, Victorian and Edwardian eras in the UK, probably India and South Africa too, they understood this and most, if not all public buildings and posh houses had brass / copper door handles which is said to curtail these bugs

Malc

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, Malc said:

Jon, I like the link .....  isn't hindsight a wonderful thing !

In olden times, Victorian and Edwardian eras in the UK, probably India and South Africa too, they understood this and most, if not all public buildings and posh houses had brass / copper door handles which is said to curtail these bugs

Malc

https://www.sciencealert.com/how-long-does-coronavirus-last-on-surfaces

Plastic is worst......you know......what wraps all that stuff up at the supermarket. Pick one up, put it back, get another, pick your nose.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, runsgrateasanut said:

I couldn't believe it!

Three frontline Nurses describing what conditions are like in Wards to the BBC 6.00am News,  looking as though they had only been provided with one Seat to sit on, rubbing shoulders and the taller guy trying to lean in as the female in the centre spoke to Camera. Literally shoulder to shoulder and only the centre Nurse spoke!

Ruined an important update of the situation but we thank them for all the fantastic work they are doing.  BBC organised the interview, presumably! Shame on BBC. What message did it send?

I have 2 friends been to hospitals in both UK and Italy in recent days for non-related reasons. 

They both reported staff behaving normally, standing talking together in groups, coming through doors as groups while arriving for shifts etc.

Make of that what you will.

[Malc]

1 minute ago, Comedian said:

what wraps all that stuff up at the supermarket

our Morrisons is asking people to just buy it when they touch it and NOT to put it back

Malc

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, Malc said:

our Morrisons is asking people to just buy it when they touch it and NOT to put it back

Malc

That's great - how well has asking gone so far though? I would advise assuming the worst. A friends wife turned back to her trolley this week to find another women rifling through her items stealing them out the trolley. Some people have no shame. But unfortunately the media has, in my opinion, established a mass panic in the population. And panic may well be one of the most powerful effects you can create to make people behave most unlike they normally would. It can be tough to stay calm and over rule natural response. I got rid of my TV license & sky package last year and no longer watch TV news and I feel fine and I'm self employed and struggling to cope with low sales right now - but just managing in the normal way. I really think they are awful in the way they report. Example: reporting panic buying before there was any - instilling greater panic. W******* 

[Malc]

the price of a lettuce right now  .......  about 65p in a supermarket near you

my buddy in Rainbow Beach ( just along the coast from Brisbane )  Qld Oz uses his local supermarket, about the size of an old fashioned small Co-Op when I was there last a few years back

he's complaining that the growers are pushing the prices up from the normal at this challenging time

bear in mind the  Aus$ / Stlg£  rate is about 2 / 1

usual price of a lettuce Aus$ 4.50,............. yesterday $5.95

GULP 😲

Malc

[Zotto]

Just some info more, trying to give the real dimension of problem.

Not all people will get the virus, but just about 70% of population.

Among these ones, more than 80% will have light or no symptoms at all, but among those fallen in severe symptoms  will need to be cured  going to hospital: more one is old and with other chronic illnesses , (but also young people could have severe troubles) more he is at risk to need; among these some will encounter a  interstitial pneumonia that absolutely needs oxygen treatment in intensive care units  for many days with high death risk.

You can imagine that , before or after, intensive care units will be completely saturated and at that point people will be left to each one's destiny.

At the moment, here in Lombardy we have almost reached this situation and trying to build ASAP new intensive care units, meanwhile , staying at home, we try to reduce new

contagions to gain some time, hoping to not arrive at the moment where it will be necessary to decide who has to be cured and who not.

I leave to your guess who will have precedence.

About final count of deaths, my personal opinions is that, among infected people, that are NOT those detected because of hospital or tested but at least 10 times more, will die 1-2% , that seen in numbers is rather scaring, but compared to all people daily dying for all other reasons will DOUBLE the rate, till the epidemy lasts and hospital cures are given.

Better to accept the idea that we will have, among death causes we already are accustomed to (cancer, stroke, etc...) we will have also this virus in the future; not a nice way to depart, as it needs total isolation from family and progressive loss of breath.

Due to intensive care units need, this is also not a good time to go to hospital also for other illnesses, so my best wishes to all LOC members to stay safe at home.

 

[Guest]

Just reported Prince Charles has it but luckily he just got the mild version.....