How bad will it be . . . .

[cruisermark]

I'm optimistic that this virus will be gone in a few weeks and we'll be able to pick up where we left off with hopefully minimal impact.

what do you guys this think? will there be long term effects?

[royoftherovers]

Why are you optimistic Mark ?

I have seen no information that would make me feel optimistic.

[Shiner]

Ok to be optimistic..but better to be realistic...

 

[dutchie01]

No way it will be gone in a few weeks. If thesituation around july/august is more or less under control we will be lucky.

and yes, i also think the long term effects will be huge, there will be a world before and after corona and it will not be thesame.

The car industry for instance is entering the biggest crisis since the war.

This is big, nasty and agressive

[RgrWynne]

I’m afraid I am not optimistic, we haven’t even seen the start of the potential of this terrible situation, with predictions as already stated, a peak in July/August. The worse is definitely yet to come and people need to change behaviour quickly.

[Guest]

My real concern is panic, both by the government and some of the more dopey in society. I fully agree with isolating the elderly and vulnerable and for us all to self isolate as individuals or households if the requiste symptons persist. But this mass shut down of work, lesiure and education to me suggests it will end in tears. Busineses and jobs will go mega belly up in the interim many possibly 100's of thousands never to return. Meantime the feckless will say F..K to this and carry on regardless. For me it is not a conspiracy theory it is a sign of complaceny by sussesive goverments and senior health and scieentific advisors. I knew about the plague and spanish flu when I was wearing shorts to School. We never beat nature we just have to duck and dive with it, as per the Firefighters strike analogy, they went on strike out came the Army and their Corpral Jones era Green Godesse's  escorted by local plod and they did their best, too many of whom were killed driving these ancients nails. So where are the criical care beds and Vents like the Goddesses, precisely no where as they have failed to contigencey plan . In a nutshell in a sophisiticated modern economy they have fu..ed up and need button holing .

[Guest]

No spell check on this site so please live with same  Ha Ha

[skyway]

Nah it will be OK..... some of us will be f#'ked of course due to being in a car crashes or electrocuted, killed by bored relatives that don't like losing at monopoly or abducted by aliens as usual.

Aids, Sars, chicken flu, mad cow disease or crazy Dave who lived round our way who used to steal kids so we were told didn't get us..... but nothing has had a massive impact on us really since the Spanish flu... and in those days being short because you didn't have enough to eat or kicking the bucket because you had TB or arsenic poisoning from green wallpaper that you just had to have in case the neighbours saw you had last years blue Wallpaper still up (what a fu#@king liberty).

But its 2020 we are (for the most part) warm and dry in our homes with little or no damp causing respiratory problems, we all have enough food and maybe enough loo roll in the cupboard to see us through (there is always the SUN newspaper otherwise).

Of course it could be the end of civilisation as we know it.

But what is to be done anyway....... Its like standing in the sea watching a wave about to hit you you can panic or just watch it hit you either case there is no getting away from it...

Distilled down to the very essence of the situation Chaps Stiff up lip and carry on.

Either way its my Toyota Celsior and if i get the "Rona"..... i'm going to die in the car and instruct the wife to set it on fire ... I am going out like a viking 

[Malc]

interesting to hear an " expert " yesterday advising that whilst the anti viral jab is possibly a while away there are current drugs in process and available that will LIMIT the symptoms of sufferers and aid recovery

that's probably the best we will get for now .....  that's pretty good I think

 

The following is a bit of a rant and for this I apologise upfront, turn off now if you don't want to read it

NOW as to businesses carrying on, well, my online travel business where I sell almost 100% flights hasn't sold anything for about 2 weeks or more

The office support I have, sales, marketing and IT are in limbo ...  the cleaner too

I'm a member of the FSB and neither they nor my accountant are able to give me a single indication of when and how the Govt might be making these promised Grants available .............  the Govt hasn't told them ......  ok it's early days BUT cashflow is king in all businesses and quite frankly zero cash in and lots of cash out really isn't a good scenario ...  especially when from times past I just do not believe the Govt is capable of actually getting those monies out to the businesses

Words words words ...............  reminds me of legally guaranteed Research and Development Grants about 14 years back, my then business ( green roof growing stuff ) paid out lots of dosh to Ove Arup for very very fine world class research and for me to be told by the Authorities to simply just "   f..k off," they aren't paying it out in cash even though they were legally obliged to do so

My belief in Authority actually doing what they promise wanes a little

 

THE GOOD NEWS

HOWEVER   there will be lots of new jobs up and coming for the 1mn school leavers etc in the .............. CARE SECTOR .....  so don't despair, conventional business as we have known it might not survive BUT there will be jobs a plenty .....  just got to find someone to pay for them

Malc

[ambermarine]

We are at this time grasping out for some picture of what is to come with very little in the way of tools or weapons to combat the threat of this virus .

The reaction to invisible threats is to run and hide and paint a picture of the worst possible scenario.,to that end the powers that be worldwide are taking unprecedented steps to contain the threat and create a stable society to regiment the fight to survive.

Hopefully this will  buy time until we find the weapons to eradicate this threat to our humanity, there will be all kinds of scenario's being painted and blame cast everywhere as to how the situation as come to this but there are signs already that this pandemic can be contained and eventually defeated .

The present casualty lists for the countries infected are variable and erratic depending on what measures were taken at the start of the infection ,Italy being a prime example of too little too late and Singapore very precise and swift intervention the rest are scaled on response and location and the ability to cope.

The original epicentre is now reporting no new cases and the rest of China likewise apart from imported ones but the signals coming from China support the case that this virus as a time span that can be tracked and hopefully that is the key to defeating it until a vaccine is developed.

Yes there will be a sea change in Society but I think too the good and it will bring reality to the young that was brought to the young after the second world war and the fact in blazing letters that "Tomorrow is promised to no one".

[malcolmw]

Well, from another Malcolm...

I am the CEO of a small group of companies and we have already approached our bank for support under the emergency cashflow funding package. They are treating these loans like normal business finance and demand all the director's financial details to support the loan. Not user friendly!

Today may make things clearer as the Chancellor's statement later is supposed to be about how the money will be provided to workers. We will see. Reverse PAYE has be talked about.

[Cotswold Pete]

From what I have heard by some 'experts' on radio 4, this is not the pandemic that will see us humans culled in any really larger numbers, but the irrational nature of human panic (as individuals and as a society) will create much more long term damage to local and global economy.

I heard that last year 10million USA citizens caught flu, and 44,000 died.  No one closed off the USA last year, but any of us UK citizens could have caught the flu and brought it home to see of any of my elderly or weak relatives.

There is a book called 'The Great Mortality', which is based on fact, written by an academic, and presents the facts of bubonic plague and the transition to pnuemonic plague, and then the seperate plagues which have rattled around for many a century.  It is not a dry academic book (by the way)

In terms of optimism, there will be winners, there will be losers, and unfortunately some people will get to meet their maker earlier than expected (same as the flu epedmics we get from time to time), and in the meanwhile the level of world pollution has dropped because not so many Lexus drivers burning fuel or planes whizzing around the world.  So for the moment the atmosphere is one possible winner.

I work for a small Telecoms business, we are mad crazy at the mo with customers asking how we can help their staff work at home, but Ican see in about 3 or 4 weeks the bottom will fall out of new business as so many companies small and large will have other worries rather than buying better Internet connections or Telephone Systems.

For sure glad I am not running my own training consultancy like I was 15 years ago, I would have been wiped out business wise.

So anyone running their own company has my sympathy/thoughts/best wishes

[dutchie01]

This is not the flu. It is more contageus with 1 person in average passing it to 3 others. Deathrate in Italian ICś at the moment is almost 9%... These are figures readily available on the internet. I am writing this in Holland and we are some 1.5 / 2 weeks behind italy. Overhere it is spreading at an alarming pace and lots of people now know someone with corona or from hearsay. Over 50% of the people on our IC departments is younger than 50 with a good healthy boy of 16 as youngest.

we are some 1.5 weeks behind italy and i think the UK is some 1.5 weeks behind us. I am not optimistic.

[Zotto]

Writing from Lombardy, I say it has not to be underestimated. Even most of people  will solve situation with light symptoms of usual influenza, the troubles are for feeble subjects that develop a viral lung infection that needs intensive care, and at the moment all intensive care beds are already occupied by people that let free them dying or after many days; so,  soon people will not be cured: the logic of lockdown here is to slow down the contagion to have more time to free intensive care beds and save someone more, hoping that with summer temperatures virus will fade out (at least till coming of winter). A different approach from UK where government admitted the lack of IUs and the consequent dead of more feeble (mainly elders) who has the disgrace to fall ill and not able to get better by themselves.

Estimated  death rate is about 2% but it depends in every individual  immunity system and there is no a real cure at the moment even if some antivirals or other drugs seem to be somewhat effective.

[Malc]

well I don't know

for some weird reason my rhubarb crowns have started, almost cropping these past few days ............  anyone else got some good news ?

Malc

[The-Acre]

29 minutes ago, Malc said:

well I don't know

for some weird reason my rhubarb crowns have started, almost cropping these past few days ............  anyone else got some good news ?

Malc

Yes, my blueberries are well in bud!

[royoftherovers]

31 minutes ago, Malc said:

well I don't know

for some weird reason my rhubarb crowns have started, almost cropping these past few days ............  anyone else got some good news ?

Malc

My rhubarb is also sprouting most handsomely.

[Herbie]

Stupid thought for the day - why can't we just GLOBALLY suspend the use of all money?

We go to work so that we have money to spend on various things including our bills. That money goes to someone else so that they can repeat the process and pay their bills etc., etc., and on and on, ad infinitum, all the way up a huge chain.

If I don't get any money I can't pay my bills, but that should work all the way up the chain too, so that the next in line can't pay his bills and so on, ad infinitum. If no one uses money, no one needs money and so no one owes anyone anything for a temporary period of time. We all have whatever we have and the world financially 'holds its breath' so to speak, for, say, 12 months, and then begins to breathe again and we all still have what we had before.

After all, it's not like these businesses were failing due to a bad business model or bad management. Why should a virus put a good viable business to the wall? The vast majority of the global population will come out of this at the other side and will still want to travel; still want to go to the pub; still want to buy furniture and so on and so on. If there's a need for a business now there will still be a need for it after the crisis - only the banks and stock markets will make these businesses fail, not the virus.

We're talking of governments borrowing hundreds of billions of Pounds/Dollars - surely it would be better to use no money rather than going into a century of debt?

And just who is it that has all these eye-wateringly vast sums of money to lend to us anyway?

[The-Acre]

34 minutes ago, Herbie said:

Stupid thought for the day - why can't we just GLOBALLY suspend the use of all money?

We go to work so that we have money to spend on various things including our bills. That money goes to someone else so that they can repeat the process and pay their bills etc., etc., and on and on, ad infinitum, all the way up a huge chain.

If I don't get any money I can't pay my bills, but that should work all the way up the chain too, so that the next in line can't pay his bills and so on, ad infinitum. If no one uses money, no one needs money and so no one owes anyone anything for a temporary period of time. We all have whatever we have and the world financially 'holds its breath' so to speak, for, say, 12 months, and then begins to breathe again and we all still have what we had before.

After all, it's not like these businesses were failing due to a bad business model or bad management. Why should a virus put a good viable business to the wall? The vast majority of the global population will come out of this at the other side and will still want to travel; still want to go to the pub; still want to buy furniture and so on and so on. If there's a need for a business now there will still be a need for it after the crisis - only the banks and stock markets will make these businesses fail, not the virus.

We're talking of governments borrowing hundreds of billions of Pounds/Dollars - surely it would be better to use no money rather than going into a century of debt?

And just who is it that has all these eye-wateringly vast sums of money to lend to us anyway?

I think I may need another beer before I go over that again! Actually I like the idea of no money and everything being free, if that could work, I'll take that new LS500 please. 

[royoftherovers]

15 minutes ago, The-Acre said:

I think I may need another beer before I go over that again! Actually I like the idea of no money and everything being free, if that could work, I'll take that new LS500 please. 

I think that Herbie and Phil should stick at their day jobs and I will continue to consume my very large Spanish Whiskey !!

 

Here`s to you boys!!

[RgrWynne]

I actually prefer Spanish Brandy, after a very delicious Rioja Tempranillo, and we now know what Herbie has been thinking about during his absence. 😜

[The-Acre]

35 minutes ago, RgrWynne said:

I actually prefer Spanish Brandy, after a very delicious Rioja Tempranillo, and we now know what Herbie has been thinking about during his absence. 😜

As it happens I'm on the Rioja now, can't afford brandy, I've spent all my money on stockpiling toilet roll and soap and dog poo bags.

[royoftherovers]

1 hour ago, RgrWynne said:

I actually prefer Spanish Brandy, after a very delicious Rioja Tempranillo, and we now know what Herbie has been thinking about during his absence. 😜

I like Spanish Brandy too Roger, but Spanish Whiskey at 14 euros for 1.5 lites takes some beating my friend.

[royoftherovers]

58 minutes ago, The-Acre said:

As it happens I'm on the Rioja now, can't afford brandy, I've spent all my money on stockpiling toilet roll and soap and dog poo bags.

How are you gonna get home Phil ?

[The-Acre]

4 minutes ago, royoftherovers said:

How are you gonna get home Phil ?

Got home yesterday.