Covid19 to travel or not to travel...

[The-Acre]

Sooo, assume I work for Betfred (which thankfully I don't!) What do you all think my chances are of not having my road trip to Austria cancelled at the end of April?  What odds should I offer?  

[superatticman]

I must admit the whole thing is puzzling. On one hand you have a virus that is a fair amount less severe than influenza. Anyone who has actually had this will know how debilitating it can be. Yet on the other hand there seems to be a genuine panic amongst the establishment. Possibly due to the ease of which it can be spread??? Its apparently killed a young and healthy medical professional in China. The one of whom first went public about the virus (against the state's wishes). Lets face it it, in China you tend to disappear permanently if you don't do as you are told. I'm still not not sure what to make of it and as to whether there will be any kind of shut down. Can the World really afford to go into limp mode on the strength of what for the vast majority will be a few days off work??

[The-Acre]

14 minutes ago, superatticman said:

I must admit the whole thing is puzzling. On one hand you have a virus that is a fair amount less severe than influenza. Anyone who has actually had this will know how debilitating it can be. Yet on the other hand there seems to be a genuine panic amongst the establishment. Possibly due to the ease of which it can be spread??? Its apparently killed a young and healthy medical professional in China. The one of whom first went public about the virus (against the state's wishes). Lets face it it, in China you tend to disappear permanently if you don't do as you are told. I'm still not not sure what to make of it and as to whether there will be any kind of shut down. Can the World really afford to go into limp mode on the strength of what for the vast majority will be a few days off work??

It is very puzzling, and interesting that we don't see such drastic measures taken with other viruses.  I'll just have to wait and see what happens as the weeks go by.  At least my trip is just a holiday, for others it's much more serious.

[Ala Larj]

I think perspective is required here! 

https://www.spectator.co.uk/2020/02/the-most-dangerous-thing-about-coronavirus-is-the-hysteria/

[Herbie]

There is no denying that viruses such as this can, and will, kill some people, the majority of whom will be the elderly and the infirm, but the vast majority of people who contract the virus will recover from it.

The panic on the stock market and the closing of schools and factories etc., etc., isn't driven by how many people the virus will kill, but rather the amount of people who are sick at the same time and how long their recovery will take.

Imagine if 25% of truck drivers are off sick at the same time, what would that do to the supply chains of anything from supermarkets to car manufacturers?

If 25% of train drivers are off sick? If 25% of police are off sick?

If it spreads quickly and easily it could be very bad indeed for the economy.

[Malc]

my perspective as the owner of an on line travel / flight business

airline fuel sales have collapsed and people are just NOT travelling anywhere much

Like we have Porton Down, the Chinese have similar and there is thought that this virus escaped from there inadvertently, the truth I don't know

Also I had video footage sent from a very respected guy showing the Chinese forces despatching up to 45000 with the problem

NOW, I don't believe nor disbelieve this at all

BUT I DO KNOW FOR A FACT  that one of the first deaths from this in the USA was a very very fit and healthy 70 year old guy who had attended a 100 delegate conference in Virginia where he lived, attended by 100 delegates  of whom 6 were from China. He died in hospital 10 days after contracting the virus on 26th January

I'm fully expecting my business to go into limbo until someone develops the antivirus, hopefully sometime soon

In the interim I know that I'm not travelling far from home

Malc

 

[superatticman]

I worry more for my parents than myself. Both are in their 70s. They are healthy and fit for their age but you are always more vulnerable at 60+. That's 14 years away for me mind.

[NemesisUK]

2 hours ago, Malc said:

I'm fully expecting my business to go into limbo until someone develops the antivirus, hopefully sometime soon

 

We have a vaccine for seasonal flu but still approx 15-20,000 die each year. I don't expect it to be any different with COVID-19. We already have 4 corona type viruses endemic in the human population that seasonally account for approx 10% of cold type infections.

The uncertainty with COVID-19 is, as it establishes itself in the human population, will it mutate into something far more dangerous to life (as did the 1918 Spanish flu virus)? Until these sorts of things are established nations have to treat it as 'worse case'.  As I understand it COVID-19 is a single strand RNA type corona-virus and these don't typically mutate drastically.

The genetic code for COVID-19 is known and vaccines have been constructed but these must undergo efficacy and safety testing which take a significant time. Then mass production will take even more time (assuming the selected vaccine can be successfully scaled up) we are already looking to early next year at this stage. Only  then can distribution can start but who receives it first? It won't be the general population... 

Interesting times and certainly the situation will evolve dramatically over the next few weeks. 

 

[steve2006]

We we are due to fly out to Lanzarote soon and the only suspected case there has been ruled out so we are at present not unduly worried. When it comes to flights you take your chances coupled up in an aluminium cylinder with 300 plus other people.

My company has just announced that any staff returning from affected areas must self quarantine for 2 weeks on their return...fortunately on full pay.