Future of the IS ??

[rayaans]

C

21 hours ago, dutchie01 said:

Interesting article in Carbuzz.com today with the header  - Teslas biggest threat could be Toyota -.

last year sales of toyotas hybrid vehicles increased by 28.7% in the US while lexus hybrid sales rose by 43.1%. Toyota sold a grand total of 274,550 hybrids in the US in 2019. To compare, Tesla sold about 200,000 vehicles in the US last year. Toyota offers non hybrid versions of its most powerful cars but customers are opting for the hybrids in droves.

makes you think... 

Another bombshell in the EV world made public today. In Holland the Ionity company ( high speed chargers in highway petrolstations) announced an increase in price valid as from today. The average price to charge your batteries to full was about 8 euro to full. This is going to forty seven ( 47 ) euro .....

 

Currently it is cheaper to run an EV not taking cost of purchase into account.

I can imagine as more people jump on the bandwagon, the government will start hiking road tax as well as duty on electricity 

[i-s]

5 hours ago, rayaans said:

Currently it is cheaper to run an EV not taking cost of purchase into account.

I can imagine as more people jump on the bandwagon, the government will start hiking road tax as well as duty on electricity 

For some models there's price parity at purchase. Our Tesla for example cost £38290, which was actually cheaper than a slower 330i that has far higher running costs. 

It is not possible for the gov to apply duty on electricity. They have no way of knowing what I use for the fridge and what I use for the car. And can you imagine the headlines if they try to hike it on all electricity? "Millions of pensioners pushed into fuel poverty"

Of course, they will have to recoup the billions that fuel duty currently brings in, and that will be done through dynamic road pricing - drive along the M60 from Ashton to stockport at 8am on a weekday when it's bumper to bumper and you'll pay £1 per mile. Do it at midnight and it'll be a penny. 

The neat bit about that (from government point of view) is that they won't stop duty on fossil fuel... ICE cars will have to pay both taxes. 

[ganzoom]

On 1/17/2020 at 8:41 PM, dutchie01 said:

IToyota sold a grand total of 274,550 hybrids in the US in 2019. To compare, Tesla sold about 200,000 vehicles in the US last year. 

That figure alone is astounding, a car company that didn't make a single car till 2008, and currently only has 3 models in their lineup two of which starts at $100k is achieving 2/3  the volume of alternative fuel cars sales of Toyota, one of the biggest car manufacturers on the planet.......So who is the bigger threat to who??

As for fuel cost, our Tesla still costs me £0 to refuel at a Tesla Supercharger and about £6 to refuel at home. 

Ionity increasing their prices just demonstrates how far ahead Tesla are of the competition. Incidentally there are currently less than half a dozen Ionity charging sites in the UK, versus so many Tesla Supercharger sites I've lost count.

There are challenges to Tesla, Toyota/Lexus are not it. And the more Toyota wastes their time with the Mirai the more danger they will face in the future.

Nokia phone sales actually peaked in 2007, hitting 50% market share in Q4, the same time when apple first launched their Iphone. No big tech analyst at the time would have predicted what happened next......At the rate Tesla is catching up to Toyota in the US, Toyota executives need to be worried, but like Nokia I suspect the realization they haven't adapted in time may come too late!

[noby76]

On 1/19/2020 at 3:54 AM, ganzoom said:

At the rate Tesla is catching up to Toyota in the US, Toyota executives need to be worried, but like Nokia I suspect the realization they haven't adapted in time may come too late!

With Toyota having the know how and actually one of the car manufactures to perfect the Hybrid drive train do you really think it will be a challenge to switch to a full EV drive train on thier cars? don't forget  Tesla's main sales comes from the US with Europe and Asia being some what smaller sales targets. Toyota builds cars that can be used anywhere in the world be it the north pole to siberia to Africa so them stopping production and switching solely to EV cars will actually make them go bankrupt. 

at the moment, the infrastructure for getting everyone running EV cars is not there even in US and Europe as there are many members of the population who full EV cars will actually be an inconvenience rather than beneficial to their lives in terms of not having a charge points due to living in a flat or on street parking. let alone the rest of the world.

also dont forget the power of oil companies mainly US oil companies and the "say" they have in US Gorverment policies. they will not allow full EV cars on the roads if it will not benefit or profit  them so until they have also swapped oil for electricity, ICE cars will be around for a very long time..

but in all seriousness dont think its hard work for Toyota to switch to full EV they just do not make decisions based on US and Europe alone.

[dutchie01]

Im not sure if the current EV market is demand driven. It seems more pushed by legislation. The European WLTP norm that was laid down by the European Commision seems to be the big force behind all this. 95 grams in 2021 is the goal for automotive companies and with draconic fines if the average output of all cars together is above that. This is where Toyota finds itself in a different position than the European competition. Toyota is a truly global brand with focus not especially on europe so the european sales are part of but not dominating their figures. The Wltp is about european sales only. Other contributing factor is that all models in Europe are also availably with hybrid for some time now thus pusing the overall Co2 figure down. Toyota expects a fine of some 15 million end year, now compare that with VAG group that is looking at 1.5 billion... So the financial need for toyota is not really there to go EV full speed. VAG group on the other hand will introduce 23 EV models alone this year, now you know why..  

[Shada]

14 hours ago, dutchie01 said:

Im not sure if the current EV market is demand driven. It seems more pushed by legislation. The European WLTP norm that was laid down by the European Commision seems to be the big force behind all this. 95 grams in 2021 is the goal for automotive companies and with draconic fines if the average output of all cars together is above that. This is where Toyota finds itself in a different position than the European competition. Toyota is a truly global brand with focus not especially on europe so the european sales are part of but not dominating their figures. The Wltp is about european sales only. Other contributing factor is that all models in Europe are also availably with hybrid for some time now thus pusing the overall Co2 figure down. Toyota expects a fine of some 15 million end year, now compare that with VAG group that is looking at 1.5 billion... So the financial need for toyota is not really there to go EV full speed. VAG group on the other hand will introduce 23 EV models alone this year, now you know why..  

No doubt even the electric vw will be unreliable and manage to pollute. The batteries will likely leak and contaminate half the country's water supply! 

I wonder what odds I'd get in the bookies to place a bet on this🤔

[ganzoom]

10 hours ago, Shada said:

I wonder what odds I'd get in the bookies to place a bet on this🤔

Well if you want to bet against EVs Tesla stock is the most shorted US stoc, so plenty of people are willing Tesla to fail.

Time will tell how things go, but early impressions of the Y from a Model 3 owner is they cannot wait to swap their Model 3 for a Model Y.

The price point and market position of the Y is right on target for the likes of the X3/X5, Q3/Q5, and NX/RX. BMW, Audi, Lexus can make excuse about no one wanting a saloon for dismal 3 series/IS sales.......If I was to bet come next year this time I think they will all be scrabbling around like headless chickens trying to get a product to compete with the Model Y, and not all of these household names are going to survive the up and coming bum fight when the music finally stops on quantitative easing.

[Wallace]

Here's my thoughts.  We have had an IS200S, an IS250 Sport, an IS 300h and now have an IS300h Sport and this will be our last Lexus because we are going EV.  Neither Lexus nor Toyota make a 100% electric car at the moment.  We have driven "reserved" a Kia e-nero and also "been allocated" a VW First ID3.  We see the market taking off this year with sales of EV's.  We had to "reserve" the Kia 6 months ago because they had sold all of the 2019 allocation in the early part of the year.  It is a very very good car to drive and as we have solar panels it kind of makes sense to go EV.  The VW ID3 looks a very good car on paper, and VW obviously can see which way the market is going.  I still cannot believe that Jaguar did not see the slump in the sale of diesel cars coming.

Anyway it will be sad to leave this club, as we saw it grow from the 1990's to what it is today.  Good luck all.

[rayaans]

53 minutes ago, Wallace said:

Here's my thoughts.  We have had an IS200S, an IS250 Sport, an IS 300h and now have an IS300h Sport and this will be our last Lexus because we are going EV.  Neither Lexus nor Toyota make a 100% electric car at the moment.  We have driven "reserved" a Kia e-nero and also "been allocated" a VW First ID3.  We see the market taking off this year with sales of EV's.  We had to "reserve" the Kia 6 months ago because they had sold all of the 2019 allocation in the early part of the year.  It is a very very good car to drive and as we have solar panels it kind of makes sense to go EV.  The VW ID3 looks a very good car on paper, and VW obviously can see which way the market is going.  I still cannot believe that Jaguar did not see the slump in the sale of diesel cars coming.

Anyway it will be sad to leave this club, as we saw it grow from the 1990's to what it is today.  Good luck all.

Well they do it's called the UX300e and order books are open so.....

[Wallace]

1 hour ago, rayaans said:

Well they do it's called the UX300e and order books are open so.....

OK Rayaan, You cannot get one now, or in the next 6 months, and we had a test drive in a UX and rejected it as being too small in the boot/back and a bad ride because of the short wheelbase.  The UX300e is coming 2021 by which time there will be a plethoras of EV's on the market.

[i-s]

And it can only charge at up to 50kW. Not enough for a 2019 model, let alone a 2021 model. 

[wakhtar]

I was enquiring about when Android Auto would be available on the IS at Lexus Birmingham last week and their service chap told me the new IS was coming out Q4 2020 or Q1 2021 which would include Android\Apple. 

 

 

[MONTIMAR]

I think Toyota are waiting for a breakthrough with Solid State Battery Tech which will double the range of electric cars. Tesla are so far advanced with the present Lithium Ion Battery tech other brands are struggling to catch up.

[Linas.P]

I am pretty confident IS will be gone - currently it just don't make sense next to ES, why would Lexus had 2 similarly priced models?! The only reason to have something in between GS and IS in Europe, is to get rid of both.

I only got interested in the brand because of their models created to compete european cars - that is specifically IS and GS and think this is the reason why I hate ES so much. That is - realisation of what this means to Lexus brand and line-up going forward. It was clear from the beginning that it will be replacing 2 "European oriented" models with a single american oriented model which is ugly and bad to drive. And if you say I am wrong about ES, look at sales number - even in the year when it was introduces it was outsold 4 to 1, by end of life GS. So despite what people are saying it is not a massive hit in UK or Europe and will never be, however it does makes sense for Lexus to rather have one niche model, than 2. Further with right price, for right demographic it could sell... that is fleet buyers like executive taxis, drivers who care more about luxury and less about driving dynamics, older customers in general and at the same time less competition - they won't need to compete neither 5 series which they literally can't not 3 series, because ES is effectively larger and more comfortable and luxurious. BMW GC-4 or MB CLA/CLA are not really that big anyway, so perhaps Lexus just took "easy" route to sell in niche where traditional European brands are not that strong.

Further, we need to understand why LS and ES were created and continue to exist, where GS and IS were never core products. That is because ES and LS represent mid-size and large car segments in US. In Europe we have different segments with distinctive characteristics which do not exist in US - these are so called "D and E" segments, but they are not like US mid-size and there are no real overlap. Lexus IS and GS were exactly made to compete in these European segments during temporary growth in overall sedan segment in US between mid 90's to mid 00's. Because they are distinctively European that is why we got these cars in Europe as well, but Lexus remains US focused brand - this means all the decision they make are primarily to satisfy US needs.

That said with overall declining sector it makes sense for them to axe few models which were never native in US and replace with something which continues to sell and represents recognised segment. SUV's are popular worldwide so they continue to expand on this segment. So really, unless they would be very serious about European sales (which they are not) there isn't much more reason to keep large line-up in dying segment. This is sadly end of the road for me with the brand as I am neither in SUVs nor in moring american sedans...  As well it is probably the same case for anyone looking for alternative to 3-Series or 5-Series. There will be one less competitor to choose from, but at least Volvo and Jaguar are still kicking, Maserati downgrading and making more affordable cars, but in few years time Lexus will be gone from this segment. European focus provided temporary spark in Lexus line-up, making few sporty and driver oriented models that seems to be end of it.

[wharfhouse]

40 minutes ago, Linas.P said:

I am pretty confident IS will be gone - currently it just don't make sense next to ES, why would Lexus had 2 similarly priced models?! The only reason to have something in between GS and IS in Europe, is to get rid of both.

I only got interested in the brand because of their models created to compete european cars - that is specifically IS and GS and think this is the reason why I hate ES so much. That is - realisation of what this means to Lexus brand and line-up going forward. It was clear from the beginning that it will be replacing 2 "European oriented" models with a single american oriented model which is ugly and bad to drive. And if you say I am wrong about ES, look at sales number - even in the year when it was introduces it was outsold 4 to 1, by end of life GS. So despite what people are saying it is not a massive hit in UK or Europe and will never be, however it does makes sense for Lexus to rather have one niche model, than 2. Further with right price, for right demographic it could sell... that is fleet buyers like executive taxis, drivers who care more about luxury and less about driving dynamics, older customers in general and at the same time less competition - they won't need to compete neither 5 series which they literally can't not 3 series, because ES is effectively larger and more comfortable and luxurious. BMW GC-4 or MB CLA/CLA are not really that big anyway, so perhaps Lexus just took "easy" route to sell in niche where traditional European brands are not that strong.

Further, we need to understand why LS and ES were created and continue to exist, where GS and IS were never core products. That is because ES and LS represent mid-size and large car segments in US. In Europe we have different segments with distinctive characteristics which do not exist in US - these are so called "D and E" segments, but they are not like US mid-size and there are no real overlap. Lexus IS and GS were exactly made to compete in these European segments during temporary growth in overall sedan segment in US between mid 90's to mid 00's. Because they are distinctively European that is why we got these cars in Europe as well, but Lexus remains US focused brand - this means all the decision they make are primarily to satisfy US needs.

That said with overall declining sector it makes sense for them to axe few models which were never native in US and replace with something which continues to sell and represents recognised segment. SUV's are popular worldwide so they continue to expand on this segment. So really, unless they would be very serious about European sales (which they are not) there isn't much more reason to keep large line-up in dying segment. This is sadly end of the road for me with the brand as I am neither in SUVs nor in moring american sedans...  As well it is probably the same case for anyone looking for alternative to 3-Series or 5-Series. There will be one less competitor to choose from, but at least Volvo and Jaguar are still kicking, Maserati downgrading and making more affordable cars, but in few years time Lexus will be gone from this segment. European focus provided temporary spark in Lexus line-up, making few sporty and driver oriented models that seems to be end of it.

The future will certainly be challenging/interesting. I personally came to Lexus for the IS 300h (from having a number of BMWs) and have no regrets over that change. I would certainly choose another IS if a new model is released - but the ES doesn't interest me. The IS does however have reasonably strong w/w sales (including US) so hopefully Lexus will maintain the IS marque. However, the whole de-carbonising lark will probably throw many things up in the air that we can't imagine at the moment. Like you, to date, I have not been interested in SUVs - I have driven the NX 300h and wasn't take by that, however I had the UX 250h for a day while my car was in with Lexus and I was much more interested in that - I actually enjoyed driving it and the experience wasn't a million miles away from the IS. In fact, depending in what Lexus does with IS going forwards I would seriously consider a change to the UX. Interior space (particular boot space) is a bit limited in the UX but as my lifestyle will have a major change in the next few years the UX could be the right car for me at that time, particularly the E-Four version. So never say never is probably the right phrase here...

[rich1068]

26 minutes ago, Linas.P said:

and think this is the reason why I hate ES so much.

You're ordering one then?

[Linas.P]

1 hour ago, rich1068 said:

You're ordering one then?

If I catch your reference then... no. I always liked RC, with sole issue being engine choice... as for ES I hate pretty much every single part of it, engines, drivetrain, driving wheels, design... I cannot name a single thing about the car which is either good or it is important for me. So for RC there was rationale and I considered car for long time, ES - never considered and will never consider.

@wharfhouse - I appreciate that as simple car to get from A to B, there isn't really any difference if that is Golf or Small SUV e.g. CT or UX, I don't like either, but at the same time don't see much difference. If I would be in the market for CT and the only option available is UX, I would not cry too much or vice versa. 

However, when it comes to more interesting driving and cars - I will never have SUV, ever... Proper offroad 4x4 yes - there is place for them, but for FWD based SUV -definitely not. When I look into comparison between say mid-size saloon and same size SUV, there are no single thing which I consider to be better on SUV - saloon would be more planted on road, lower center of mass, better fuel consumtion, cheaper tyres, all components last longer, faster and more agile... People by SUV for reason which I cannot comprehend or appreciate, like sitting higher?! "feeling" safer?! - probably the are more similar to reason why people buy coupes - like look... In short less realistic factual reasons, but more "lifestyle and choice" reasons. Clearly those relevant to SUVs does not match with my values... 

[ghost_killer]

On 1/31/2020 at 12:37 PM, Linas.P said:

I am pretty confident IS will be gone - currently it just don't make sense next to ES, why would Lexus had 2 similarly priced models?! The only reason to have something in between GS and IS in Europe, is to get rid of both.

Interest you mentioned that (and of course sad if it's the end of the IS) I wonder what about say if Lexus brought out a saloon that's slightly smaller than the IS if that would work - after all I see quite alot A3 saloon's and Merc CLA's and now the A-class saloon which confuses me as they look quite similar (in my opinion) and often think is there need for 2 similar / same size and body styles from same company....so people are still buying these cars, meanwhile on subject of SUV's or in this case a CUV I saw a UX300e at a shopping centre in West London that was being 'premiered' was informed not out till January next year

[rayaans]

There is a new IS coming next year, and yes, it is RWD but is expected to grow slightly to BMW 3 series and upcoming C class size

[dutchie01]

will there be an EV version?

[ColinBarber]

17 minutes ago, dutchie01 said:

will there be an EV version?

No official news yet, and probably not at launch.

[ghost_killer]

1 hour ago, rayaans said:

There is a new IS coming next year, and yes, it is RWD but is expected to grow slightly to BMW 3 series and upcoming C class size

So I guess that be a replacement not a refresh or another facelift ? Yep as well as uncertainties about another IS I also heard some rumours that it may get a re-fresh (facelift), so many different speculation !!

[ColinBarber]

1 hour ago, ghost_killer said:

So I guess that be a replacement not a refresh or another facelift ? 

Yes it should be a new generation - Toyota typically run an 8 year cycle, give or take a year or two, and the current generation launched in 2013. But until officially announced it is uncertain - the current move to electric vehicles could make Toyota decide to make an all-electric platform and therefore just face-lift the current platform to tide them over for a couple more years. Or the drop off in Saloon sales could make them decide to not further develop the IS, like they did with the GS (even though they had been working on a new platform for a while) - both highly unlikely scenarios but we just don't know at this stage.

[Blisteringblue]

On 1/15/2020 at 2:57 PM, Blisteringblue said:

Been quoted 12 weeks lead time on a Model 3 Tesla from Lex Autolease.  If I can swing it as it's pretty expensive I will but I will most likely be moving to a PHEV this time (I swap in July) this is my 2nd IS300h but I won't be back again.   Infotainment aside (it's shocking) the Self Charging Hybrid is no longer a viable company car option as the CO2 BIK rates are through the roof now.   My first 300h was 12% we are approaching the mid 20%s now.   

Our modern thinking company have said a blanket no to full electric cars for now.  Haven't even quoted for a Lexus this time, I'm leaving for the new Volvo XC40 T5 Twin Engine Inspiration (PHEV).  Quoted 22 weeks by Lex Autolease.

I've loved the drive of the IS, hated the infotainment and it will be a shame to move on, but quite looking forward to the XC40 PHEV and Android Auto finally 😝

[rayaans]

3 minutes ago, Blisteringblue said:

Our modern thinking company have said a blanket no to full electric cars for now.  Haven't even quoted for a Lexus this time, I'm leaving for the new Volvo XC40 T5 Twin Engine Inspiration (PHEV).  Quoted 22 weeks by Lex Autolease.

I've loved the drive of the IS, hated the infotainment and it will be a shame to move on, but quite looking forward to the XC40 PHEV and Android Auto finally 😝

Well I mean it's been a few months since the UX300e was revealed and is actually available to order from March onwards. And it comes with Android auto so it seems you're slightly behind in terms of what's actually going on