Future for Petrol/Diesel/ Hybrid cars

[Barry14UK]

We know that some manufactures plan to stop building solely petrol and diesel engined cars before long.  Also, with improved Battery technology and development of electric cars and more widespread availability of charging,  I wonder for how much longer it will make sense to buy a new IC engined car or even a hybrid one.  Manufacturers are about to release quite a number of Battery only new models and already there are early generation ones on the used car market.  These will undoubtedly sell better as charging facilities and availability, range and choice improves.  Of course Petrol/Diesel stations will still be operating for many years.  However, I think that before very long IC powered cars will suffer heavy depreciation.  This could result in purchasers buying a top of a range car at bargain basement price.  However, would you be deterred from buying a new car in the next three or so years time realizing it may suffer very heavy depreciation when you change?  There is also the strong possibility that owners of IC cars will be further penalized by Government.  Remaining manufacturers could find it uneconomical to continue to produce IC cars as demand drops off.   

Anybody had any thoughts on this subject?

[Malc]

most of the rest of the world won't be giving up on petrol and diesel cars anytime soon ............ most of Africa, Asia  methinks

Europe and USA represents about a 6th of the world population maybe

crossing the Gobi, Sahara, Kalhari looking for an electric charging point will be a novelty !

Malc

[olliesgrandad]

Diesels /Diesel Hybrids will soon be history. I understand all diesels from next year will pay £8 a day to enter Birmingham and a diesel ban is on the cards for Bristol. A colleague living in Birmingham and driving there most days is looking at replacing her Audi A6 because of this. 

[i-s]

The Osbourne effect. 

Yes, depreciation is already going that way because of supply and demand. As demand for ICE vehicles drops (especially diesels) then their residual values will also. That will result in higher lease rates for new vehicles (as GFVs will be lower) which will make them less popular even as lease cars. 

Meanwhile, my 2015 Nissan Leaf which I purchased for £11000 in November 2017 with 13300 miles on I sold in July 2019 with 25500 miles on for £10650, to a trader. £350 depreciation for almost doubling the mileage over 18 months - pretty much any other comparable car (eg a nissan pulsar or ford focus - not talking classics here) would have depreciated far more. 

There's a general tendency to look for peculiar edge cases (mention of deserts above) to try to suggest that the mainstream can't go electric. Asia (especially china) is far AHEAD of Europe in pushing toward electrification, and India is starting to make very serious moves because of their dire air quality situation. Remote locations in Africa or island nations are far better served by solar power and storage than reliance on expensive deliveries of diesel - look up how the island of t'au has benefited. 

Anyone buying a BMW 320d now is going to be in for a very nasty shock in 3 years time. When we are 3 years further down the road of electrification then demand for plain old diesels will be poor. Hybrids will fare better. 

I'd certainly not buy any new car with an ICE at this point. We may yet swap our GS450h for another ICE (the only thing on our radar is the LC500 and LC500h), but it would be used. We bought our Tesla new. 

 

 

 

[Gliderpilot]

Toyota/Lexus have so for been way ahead of the rest of the bunch but lately IMO have dropped the ball. They could have easily brought out PHEV versions of all their cars not just the Prius, which proved they could do it. They will get left behind. They are behind, even Ford get it with the new Mustang Mach-e.

[i-s]

Toyota are still sticking with the hydrogen fuel cell fantasy, and it doesn't help matters when they say stupid stuff like:

Quote

Jack Hollis, group vice-president and general manager of Toyota North America, laid it on the line: “We are continuously working on EV entries,” he said. “But right now, there’s no demand.”

No demand.... that's why the Tesla 3 is outselling the LS, GS, ES and IS put together in the USA. However, toyota ARE working on TNGA-e, and hopefully they won't fall too far behind. 

But I don't think that it's the shift to battery/EV that is the thing that's going to hurt/kill legacy automakers - it's software. 

Tesla own all of their software - they've ended up making their own pieces of hardware (seat controllers, infotainment, active suspension units, drive units, etc) in order to own the entirety of the software stack. This way they can update everything through over-the-air updates, while other car manufacturers are going to be trying to deliver a piece of bosch engine software through a visteon canbus system from a garmin infotainment system. They can integrate control of the car (eg suspension and motor control) with autopilot (whereas other driver assistance systems come from third-party suppliers - eg Nissan ProPilot and Volvo PilotAssist are both from Mobileye)

In this area Ford have a big advantage over many other legacy makers, as they are taking much more ownership of hardware and software (Sync 4, as in the new Mach E, is developed in-house by what used to be Research In Motion (Blackberry), which Ford acquired in 2017). VW are starting to take some of this in-house also. 

[Malc]

so where do all the zillions of old diesel and petrol cars go with many many years life remaining ?

assuming they aren't scrapped and go on to live a useful life somewhere, possibly abroad, say parts of Africa and Asia where they will be welcomed with open arms and small chequebooks

Malc

[i-s]

They continue to be used until they're no longer useful. Not sure what the question is?

Legislation bans the sale of new petrol or diesel cars. It doesn't ban the use of existing petrol or diesel cars. 

[plastic orange]

Local car auction site can't move on ex council electric vehicles. Local council has the largest electric vehicle fleet in Scotland, and taxis monopolise the free charging points. Electric isn't exactly environmentally friendly when you look behind the hype. I'll stick with Petrol thankyou.

 

Pete

[Barry14UK]

One possibility could be a rolling scrappage scheme as vehicles reach a certain age.  I know some very good cars were scrapped in a previous National time limited scheme in the UK and think there will be incentives for owners to change at some stage.  So perhaps a carrot and stick attitude by Government as a drive to reduce emissions.  (It is appreciated that producing electricity is not entirely without use of fossil fuel as things are presently but Battery powered cars help)

1 hour ago, i-s said:

They continue to be used until they're no longer useful. Not sure what the question is?

Legislation bans the sale of new petrol or diesel cars. It doesn't ban the use of existing petrol or diesel cars. 

The question is implicit in the start of this thread, ie about how willing people will be to continue to buy new petrol/diesel/hybrid cars before very long and the effect this might have on the value of current IC cars.

 

[plastic orange]

My current fleet age starting with the youngest - 2005 Lexus RX 300, 1999 Lexus LS400, 1955 Morris Minor, 1953 Chevrolet BelAir, 1950 Morris Minor, so I'm dong my bit for being environmentally viable. Batteries aren't exactly environmentally friendly what with child exploitation in mining cobalt and lithium, plus the damage to the evironment with the pollution caused in the mining process. However, as it's not being mined here, then out of sight, out of mind and it's politically expedient.

I really can't see me buying a new vehicle as most seem either pretty bland, or problematic.

 

Pete

[Gliderpilot]

6 hours ago, Malc said:

so where do all the zillions of old diesel and petrol cars go with many many years life remaining ?

assuming they aren't scrapped and go on to live a useful life somewhere, possibly abroad, say parts of Africa and Asia where they will be welcomed with open arms and small chequebooks

Malc

Not into the majority of cities that will ban ICE cars in the future.

[RgrWynne]

I think you will find EV will take off in about 3 years time, as more and more Cities ban Diesel and then Petrol cars. The price of EV will start to reduce with VW already announcing they can produce them at a cheaper price than current standard vehicles. When more charging points are added, range is increased and availability better it will all change. Toyota and Honda and others are, I doubt bothered about being late to the party, but there is also Hydrogen being developed. I’m glad not to own a big expensive diesel, which will probably be unsaleable. I do not think travelling by car any distance in the UK is enjoyable anymore, because of congestion, so I travel by train now. 

I agree with all the comments made about Battery production and producing electricity, but I believe there is now an inevitability about EV’s, which clearly won’t happen overnight, but is on a trajectory.

[dutchie01]

irst guess EV acceptance will differ per country. Overhere ( Holland) the vast majority of new car sales are companycars, beeing lease or just bought. The larger companies/multinationals, banks, insurancecompanies etc have already been limiting choice on C02 for years now. Started at 120grams ( over 120 not allowed ) and over the years this was reduced in steps. The first company has now announced that from next year only EVs are allowed. It goes faster than people think...

To push drivers into EV fiscal stimulation is readily available and every petrolstation on the highway has EV charging. And all big hotels. And most company carparcs, and innercities etc. This is rolling out at an ever faster pace. The Tesla 3 is the best selling car this year.... With a avalanche of EVs hitting the market next year i am convinced that it will reach the private car market as well, prices are falling rapidly.

Diesel is dead for new car sales. I would not buy one try to shift it in 4 yrs time.....  

[dutchie01]

21 hours ago, i-s said:

They continue to be used until they're no longer useful. Not sure what the question is?

Legislation bans the sale of new petrol or diesel cars. It doesn't ban the use of existing petrol or diesel cars. 

i think legislation could well ban the use of exisiting petrol or diesels.

congestion charge could spread to all major cities and exactly that is a fine tool to stear old diesels away. For instance pre 2010 diesels, or all cars that emit over X grams. Some German cities already gone that far that diesels are not allowed in inner cities/ some streets. This can easily be tightened. next step could be to remove all traffiic bar EV from inner cities, have goods deliveries in certain timeslots by small EV trucks etc etc.

Legislation can also make it less attractive financially to own or use petrol or diesel vehicles by drastically increasing roadtax ( In Holland a diesel powered Range Rover Sport will already cost you over 200 Euro. Per Month.) 

Legislation can and will be used to force people into government policies.

Maybe we should all buy a 1972 Ford USA Truck with an old school 5.2ltr V8 and never sell it. That will be the most environmental friendly means of transport?     

[rayaans]

On 11/29/2019 at 10:07 AM, i-s said:

Toyota are still sticking with the hydrogen fuel cell fantasy, and it doesn't help matters when they say stupid stuff like:

No demand.... that's why the Tesla 3 is outselling the LS, GS, ES and IS put together in the USA. However, toyota ARE working on TNGA-e, and hopefully they won't fall too far behind. 

But I don't think that it's the shift to battery/EV that is the thing that's going to hurt/kill legacy automakers - it's software. 

Tesla own all of their software - they've ended up making their own pieces of hardware (seat controllers, infotainment, active suspension units, drive units, etc) in order to own the entirety of the software stack. This way they can update everything through over-the-air updates, while other car manufacturers are going to be trying to deliver a piece of bosch engine software through a visteon canbus system from a garmin infotainment system. They can integrate control of the car (eg suspension and motor control) with autopilot (whereas other driver assistance systems come from third-party suppliers - eg Nissan ProPilot and Volvo PilotAssist are both from Mobileye)

In this area Ford have a big advantage over many other legacy makers, as they are taking much more ownership of hardware and software (Sync 4, as in the new Mach E, is developed in-house by what used to be Research In Motion (Blackberry), which Ford acquired in 2017). VW are starting to take some of this in-house also. 

Toyota are correct. Relatively speaking the demand just isnt there. Tesla model 3 - 2018 had 173 new registrations, thats all models. BMW 320d had over 2000 new registrations on the 320d model alone which shows the vast majority of the public just aren't buying them. 

Things work differently in the US. They're patriotism is over the top so you get an American brand like apple for example and they'll be all over it.

On 11/29/2019 at 9:27 AM, Gliderpilot said:

Toyota/Lexus have so for been way ahead of the rest of the bunch but lately IMO have dropped the ball. They could have easily brought out PHEV versions of all their cars not just the Prius, which proved they could do it. They will get left behind. They are behind, even Ford get it with the new Mustang Mach-e.

UX300e was announced a few days before your comment.....

[Malc]

8 hours ago, dutchie01 said:

Maybe we should all buy a 1972 Ford USA Truck with an old school 5.2ltr V8 and never sell it.

or maybe I should just keep my gas guzzling ( 30mpg on a good day )  4ltr limo and never sell it ......  oh yes, that means I'm not building a brand new car and all the toxicity that involves ....  and not polluting the environment with scrappage of my dear old gal 

Malc

[i-s]

On 11/30/2019 at 6:17 PM, rayaans said:

Toyota are correct. Relatively speaking the demand just isnt there. Tesla model 3 - 2018 had 173 new registrations, thats all models. BMW 320d had over 2000 new registrations on the 320d model alone which shows the vast majority of the public just aren't buying them. 

Given that Tesla didn't open UK orders until 1st May 2019, that's a rather peculiar figure to quote. 

For 2019, Tesla will have sold more Model 3 in the UK than ANY single Lexus model (NX is their highest runner), despite deliveries of model 3 only beginning in June  (and only 250 were delivered in June and July - volume only came in august). For August, September, October and November Tesla has sold more model 3 in the UK than Lexus has sold ALL models. The demand certainly is there, and just wait until April next year when company car BIK tax on a Tesla becomes 0% (compared to 25% for an ES300h and 30% for a 320d). 

[RgrWynne]

There was also a road test in the US on the Tesla Model 3 over 25k miles and not one single fault was registered, so not bad quality.

[Lager shandy]

All very interesting the talk regarding this thread .but what are The realistic time scales transition wise from the good old combustion ride to the quiet I'm green but not really if you look into the industry's .

[plastic orange]

Has anyone seen the Tesla queue in the US for a fast recharge - no thanks.

 

Pete

[RgrWynne]

I think you have to be realistic , it is a moment in time, and as with all new technology change will come . I would also say that maybe not us , but certainly the next generation won’t have any choice , irrespective of whether they want an alternative.

[The-Acre]

Maybe, just maybe, before I get too old and incapable, I'll be able to buy an unwanted V12 Toyota Century for the price of a takeaway curry!

[talaipwros]

 

[Barry14UK]

That video highlights the problem caused by inadequate infrastructure.  Of course a heavy car is going to need a lot of Battery power.  Maybe with Battery advances longer distances between charges will be possible with the possibility of just exchanging Battery packs  for fully charged ones in a rack as I have seen in another country.  Also Americans overall have longer journeys so not surprising need more charges rather than just using facilities at home or at work.

I note that Battery powered motor cycles are now being produced and there is even a race in the IOM for them.  So ICE motor cycles will also be affected in due course like our cars.