The future of motoring

[dutchie01]

Given the electrification of cars that will come upon us with an ever increasing speed over the next 5 years i sometimes wonder what will be the future of motoring.

When i was young my parents did not have a car and my first car was freedom, growth, future for me as it was for my friends. Youngsters nowadays seem to have a different opinion, most of them i know just dont care and are not interested at all. I was cleaning polishing changing oil looking for more powerful engines and so on. Now? they only look at maths in the sense that owning a car is too expensive, so better rent, private lease or use Uber. The average age of a new car buyer is now 55 years and increasing... ( i am 57).

So, if i would be a car manufacturer what in heavens earth would i do to save my company??

How will the car market look in 10 - 15 years time?  Wille we be collected from home in electric pods looking similar? Will traffic jams disappear as people will just not own a personal car anymore? Wil the neigbours talk about that strange fellow owning an RCF 8 cylinder further down the street? (black!).  Will all cars be 100% electric by law so diesel and petrol will be banned?  Will it be impossible to enter a city without a zero emission vehicle?

Where do we go chaps? Will be interesting to hear your opinion!

 

 

     

[rayaans]

3 hours ago, dutchie01 said:

Given the electrification of cars that will come upon us with an ever increasing speed over the next 5 years i sometimes wonder what will be the future of motoring.

When i was young my parents did not have a car and my first car was freedom, growth, future for me as it was for my friends. Youngsters nowadays seem to have a different opinion, most of them i know just dont care and are not interested at all. I was cleaning polishing changing oil looking for more powerful engines and so on. Now? they only look at maths in the sense that owning a car is too expensive, so better rent, private lease or use Uber. The average age of a new car buyer is now 55 years and increasing... ( i am 57).

So, if i would be a car manufacturer what in heavens earth would i do to save my company??

How will the car market look in 10 - 15 years time?  Wille we be collected from home in electric pods looking similar? Will traffic jams disappear as people will just not own a personal car anymore? Wil the neigbours talk about that strange fellow owning an RCF 8 cylinder further down the street? (black!).  Will all cars be 100% electric by law so diesel and petrol will be banned?  Will it be impossible to enter a city without a zero emission vehicle?

Where do we go chaps? Will be interesting to hear your opinion!

 

 

     

All new cars will be electrified by 2040. I would presume that all cars with be electric before that around 2035 and would expect petrol and diesel passenger vehicles to be banned around 2045. 

My son is 22 and he still talks about cars. It's the generation of top gear and grand tour. Interest in cars is always going to exist but I think it'll be diminished. I don't know many kids who are into Tesla lol

[Hadrian]

In 10 -15 years I doubt much will change.  The majority of new cars will probably be either electric or hybrid.  As long as they can get an electric family

car with a range of at least 200 miles and a recharge time of  not more than 10 minutes.  Anyway,, if I am still alive by 2045, I certainly wont be driving 😉

[Linas.P]

3 hours ago, dutchie01 said:

So, if i would be a car manufacturer what in heavens earth would i do to save my company??

They are doing already, I believe Volvo and even Lexus considering "car as a service" proposition, where you don't own the car you just pay for the service. I think they even trialling that in US.

In other hand that is nothing new, car share schemes are just other way of doing it, car leasing is the same. The difference is that under "car as a service" it will be significantly cheaper then lease and more personal than car share ~something along the lines $50/month and you get premium car of certain model every time, to drive when you need it.

As for you generation not interested in cars... is partially true, but it depends what we are talking about. In UK - yes, in some very urbanised Western EU countries - yes, In developing wold  - definitely not (China, Brasil, Russia, India.. most of Africa, Middle east etc), US as a whole - definitely not, US urban centres especially richer more developed states (NY, CL) ~ somewhat. So geography would be key for this statement to be true. Same goes for car banning in 2030 or 2040 or what ever year, depend where you talking about it (still don't see how they going to scale-up low carbon electricity to sustain it).

Now we can say yes - but this forum is UK based, so lets take only UK. That would make no sense, because car manufacturers are global companies selling globally. Yes UK has decided to wage war against the cars and clearly we already getting less of the choice then other countries, but that doesn't mean something fundamentally will change in car industry only because of UK.

Finally, when I was growing-up in my country there were no media campaign against cars. Car was something everyone wanted, all my classmates wanted the car, it was symbol of freedom, of adulthood. most got they licence at 16, all but few "weirdos" got license at 18.. everyone got a car. By contract in UK people start telling kids disinformation from small age (literally brainwash) - cars are bad, cars pollute, cars are symbol of ..  capitalism or whatever, to drive is stupid, to drive is slow etc. Obviously, current generation grow without interest in cars, very few ever get to even try driving. That is by design - that is what goverment is seeking.. but don't be mistaken - it is not new generation naturally not being interested, we have told them not to be interested, educated not to interested and in the are they are not interested.

[Guest]

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[ganzoom]

EVs are already here its simply a matter of time, the self driving stuff is the real unknown and exciting bit....

 

It appeaes neural net development has taken a massive jump last 12 months with the realisation these networks develop best WITHOUT human input. The coding/problem solving ability of neural nets is already super man in specific cases, and there are real life applications coming.

 

For those of you who arent into academic literature, Nature is the most prestigious scientific journal on the planet, if you can get a single paper into Nature thats a professorship in the bag. In the last 6-12 months AI neural networks have dominated the journal.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature21056

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24270

 

https://www.nature.com/news/google-ai-algorithm-masters-ancient-game-of-go-1.19234

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05133-w

 

The link below takes you to some really good vidoes of how cutting edge AI neural network development is. I would say unless you plan on retirement soon AI will be affecting how your job will look in the future. Forget self driving cars this tech is going to change how we do everything. 

 

Train AI TRAIN AI 2018 Presentations | Figure Eight

 

Watch the first video with Garry Kasparov, at around 18 minute mark.....Essentially computers can now code themsleves better/quicker and the less human interfrance in that process the better. The result is coding us humanbeings dont understand/didnt anticipate. The creation of an intelligence that we don't understand/cannot anticipate has been the basis of many SciFi films, but now its reality.

 

 

[malcolmw]

In poor developing countries, everyone rides bicycles but aspires to a car. As they become wealthier, they get their wish but the roads become clogged. Governments then encourage a return to cycling as "the answer". ☺️

I am quite sure that AI is capable of development to the point of autonomous driving but the issue is public acceptance and liability. Witness the railway. Clearly, even with the current technology,  self driving trains are practical but they cannot be introduced because of public perception and union intransigence.

Personally, I would always want to drive myself but I will be very old or dead before full autonomy becomes commonplace.